GB Group (GBG) has sold its marketing services business to HH Global Group for an undisclosed amount. This was not an area of focus for GBG and has been in managed decline for several years. Just before Christmas, GBG boosted its Fraud business with the acquisition of fraud investigation automation software from HooYu for £4m in equity. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the disposal and acquisition, leading to small upgrades to our EPS forecasts. Both deals emphasise the company’s strategy to focus on Identity, Location and Fraud.
Companies: GB Group PLC
GB Group’s (GBG’s) H121 results were in line with its recent trading update, confirming revenue growth of 10% y-o-y and normalised EPS growth of 25% y-o-y. COVID-19-related cost reduction and cash preservation measures helped reduce net debt by £32m h-o-h. FY21 revenue guidance is unchanged and the company expects to return to more normal levels of investment (both opex and capex) in H221. We have made small upgrades to our forecasts.
GB Group (GBG) expects to report underlying revenue growth of 10% y-o-y for H121, with a one-off contract in the US making a material contribution to revenues. Combined with strict cost control this resulted in adjusted operating profit growth of 26% y-o-y and a £32m h-o-h reduction in net debt. With management guidance for revenue well ahead of our and consensus forecasts for FY21, we have upgraded our revenue and EPS forecasts for FY21–23. Despite COVID-19 related pressure on new business in the short-term, we view GBG as well placed to benefit from the accelerated shift in the digitalisation of business processes.
GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
GB Group’s (GBG’s) year-end trading update confirmed a strong performance in FY20, despite COVID-19 restrictions in Asia Pacific having a modest impact in Q4. Although the lockdown restrictions are boosting demand for online products and services, not all verticals are benefiting (eg travel, transport). We have revised our FY21 and FY22 forecasts to reflect lower levels of usage-based revenues and new business as well as reductions to operating costs. We estimate that the company has ample funds to manage through the disruption and in the longer-term should be a beneficiary of increasing amounts of business shifting online.
Strong organic revenue growth in H120 was boosted by several multi-year fraud licences and the contribution from the VIX Verify and IDology acquisitions. During H1, GB Group (GBG) made good progress with its strategy to expand internationally and enhance its product functionality and datasets. Management is confident of meeting consensus expectations for FY20; while our forecasts are unchanged at the operating profit level, a higher effective tax rate reduces our normalised EPS forecasts by c 3% in FY20–22e.
GB Group (GBG) expects to report strong revenue and profit growth for H120, with exceptional organic growth boosted by recent acquisitions. Constant currency organic growth of 18% is ahead of the company’s double-digit target, boosted to a large extent by the signing of contracts in the Fraud division that had been expected in H2. Management expects to meet FY20 consensus estimates, implying a stronger weighting to H1 revenues and profits than in previous years. We maintain our forecasts.
GB Group’s Identity capital markets day was a deep dive into the group’s largest business (36% of FY19 revenues). With electronic identity verification (eIDV) a structural growth market, GBG has invested heavily in the business over the last four years, expanding geographically and adding new capabilities and data sets. We forecast the identity business to be the fastest growing division over the next three years, underpinning the group’s targeted double-digit organic revenue growth target.
GB Group (GBG) reported FY19 results in line with recently upgraded estimates. It continues to deliver on its strategy to grow organic revenues at double-digit rates while delivering operating margins in excess of 20%. Recent acquisitions are performing well and helped drive the 56% growth in international revenues over the year. We make minor changes to our forecasts, resulting in small upgrades to normalised EPS estimates.
GB Group expects to report FY19 revenues, adjusted operating profit and net debt ahead of consensus expectations. The recent acquisitions have integrated and performed well, providing much of the upside to forecasts. We have upgraded our FY19 earnings forecasts to reflect the better trading performance in H2 and lower net debt in FY20 and FY21.
GB Group (GBG) has acquired IDology, a US identity verification business, for an enterprise value of $300m/£231m. It has placed 39m shares at 410p per share to fund £160m of the purchase price, with the remainder coming from a new credit facility. We estimate that the deal offers significant cross-selling potential and will boost GBG’s international revenues to close to 50%.
GB Group’s Loqate division was the focus of yesterday’s capital markets day. Presenters highlighted the need for accurate address data as a prerequisite for many business processes, including e-commerce, insurance and invoicing. Loqate’s ability to provide the “golden record” in a simple, fast and consistent way gives it a competitive edge and supports the division’s international growth ambitions.
GB Group's H119 results confirm that it is on track to reach its targets for 10%+ organic growth and 20%+ operating margins. As previously flagged, H119 reported growth rates are skewed by the large perpetual licence signed a year ago; adjusting for this the group achieved 11% underlying organic growth and 8% adjusted operating profit growth. We maintain our revenue and profitability forecasts, with small adjustments to our net cash forecasts.
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Sumo is trading strongly, with several drivers that could lead the company to outperform 2021 earnings expectations, in our view. Even based on conservative earnings expectations, we believe shares offer attractive value to growth.
Companies: Sumo Group Plc
IQE has announced it expects FY20 revenues to be c £178m. This is ahead of our estimates, which we revised upwards in November, reflecting outperformance in both the wireless and photonics segments. We have updated our FY20 forecasts. Given IQE’s leveraged business model, this results in a 64% uplift in EPS. Noting the uncertainty about the effect of a pandemic-related recession on the rate of smartphone sales growth, we leave our FY21 estimates unchanged for the time being.
Companies: IQE plc
As a nation, we love knocking ourselves. However in truth, we’re actually a pretty pioneering bunch. For instance, the experts at Oxford University & AstraZeneca have developed one of the world’s 3 most important vaccines in double quick time. Plus, many other British firms are creating similar breakthrough Covid inventions, such as Kromek.
Companies: Kromek Group Plc
MySale has delivered a striking turnaround in profitability with H1 FY21 EBITDA of A$2.5m up an impressive A$6.1m YOY. We believe this marked turnaround validates its AZN First strategy and signals the Group now has a robust and cash generative operating platform on which it can scale.
Companies: MySale Group plc
Synairgen (SNG.L): Completion of recruitment for at home trial | Sensyne Health (SENS.L): Research agreement with The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust
Companies: Synairgen plc (SNG:LON)Sensyne Health Plc (SENS:LON)
The Panoply has reported a very positive trading update for the Q3 to December and indicates that full year results for the year to March will be significantly ahead of expectations. The group won £15m of new contracts in Q3, including the significant assignment from the Planning Inspectorate announced at the November interims. This further demonstrates the successful development of the group, notably its expansion into healthcare and establishment of FutureGov and Foundry4 as full-service brands. In November we raised our FY21 Revenue and PBT forecasts by +5%/+10% to £44.5m/£4.9m and we further raise by +8% to £48.0m/£5.3m this morning. We choose to leave our FY22 estimates unchanged at this stage, but clearly the group has very strong momentum and we see clear scope to raise our forecasts as we progress through the year. We continue to view The Panoply as ideally placed to benefit from the structural tailwinds in digital transformation and, underpinned by our increased forecasts, raise our target price to 235p (was 220p).
Companies: Panoply Holdings Plc
FY20E order intake growth of 61% means Corero's revenue for last year of $16.8m will exceed our prior forecast. The trading update confirms c73% annual growth in revenues and further expansion of the annualised recurring revenue base. This performance highlights the increasing prioritisation of protecting networks against cyber and DDoS attacks. Buy.
Companies: Corero Network Security plc
EMIS saw trading gradually improve through H220 to finish the year slightly ahead of expectations. The company continued to support customers in dealing with the pandemic, with the recently acquired Pinnacle Systems’ software now being used in the nationwide vaccination programme. Progress was also made in product development with the launch of the first EMIS-X analytics product. We maintain our forecasts.
Companies: EMIS Group plc
H1A delivered a very resilient performance given the backdrop of halted deliveries and reduced manufacturing capacity. Orders and shipments are resuming and a ramp up in activity levels is expected in H2. A cash outflow in H1A has been supported by new committed facilities and gross cash levels look set to support the business successfully through the second half and beyond.
Strong Q4 performance from Audioboom plc, the leading global podcast company, as it continues to outpace the global podcasting market. Audioboom bounced back from the Q2 CV-19 lull in Q3 and growth accelerated in the final quarter. Q4 revenue of c. $8.5m was a record, up 25% on the same period last year and the previous record, and FY20 revenue of c. $26.8m (+20%) was comfortably ahead of forecast (ACLe: $25.5m). There were also record KPI performances (brand count, eCPM and available ad inventory). Coupled with continued cost control, adj. EBITDA loss fell to c. $0.2m in Q4 and c. $1.8m for FY20 (FY19: $2.9m, ACLe: $1.9m). The company has good access to capital ($6.6m at year end) and management expects to achieve a maiden positive adj. EBITDA for FY21. We introduce FY21 forecasts and set a fair value of 420p/share, equivalent to an FY20 EV/Revenue of 3.3x and 2.5x FY21. Although a premium to the current price, this still represents a significant discount to recent industry transaction multiples.
Companies: Audioboom Group PLC
Sage Group released a good set of Q1 20/21 figures with organic recurring revenue growth of 4.7% in line with the full-year guidance (+3-5%). This performance was spread out across various cloud native software and essentially driven by the gain of new customers. Lastly, no deterioration in the churn rate is reassuring considering the continuing tough market conditions. All in all, Sage Group confirmed FY2020/21 guidance.
Companies: Sage Group plc
Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb. Moonpig, the digital greeting card company, is planning an IPO with a potential valuation of £1bln, according to multiple media reports. Further details expected to be announced over the next two weeks.
Companies: ZPHR PANR PRSM SENS CYAN G4M ITX CRCL FEN ZIN
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 7.1p/£23.5m) Portfolio update: Strong business momentum (12.01.21) | Audioboom plc* (BOOM.L, 276p/£43.3m) Expanded content network (15.01.21)
Companies: Tern Plc (TERN:LON)Audioboom Group PLC (BOOM:LON)
The Panoply’s update on trading for the three months ending 31 December 2020 confirms the group has enjoyed a successful third quarter and continues the trend of positive news flow from the group. Against the backdrop of COVID-19 driven macro-economic challenges, The Panoply has reported an acceleration of new business wins. In our view this further validates both the Panoply’s innovative business model and with operations now focussed on two full-stack brands, demonstrates the strategic value of the acquisitions made to date. Management has increased guidance on FY 21E performance, and we take the company’s cue and revise our revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts upwards by 8% and 10% respectively.
Instem has delivered a positive trading update for the year to 31 December 2020 – revenue growth was “in excess of 11%”, suggesting a performance in line with our estimates, and net cash appears to have ended the year extremely strongly, with a figure of £26.7m vs our expectation of £22.4m.
Companies: Instem plc