GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
Companies: GB Group Plc
GB Group’s (GBG’s) year-end trading update confirmed a strong performance in FY20, despite COVID-19 restrictions in Asia Pacific having a modest impact in Q4. Although the lockdown restrictions are boosting demand for online products and services, not all verticals are benefiting (eg travel, transport). We have revised our FY21 and FY22 forecasts to reflect lower levels of usage-based revenues and new business as well as reductions to operating costs. We estimate that the company has ample funds to manage through the disruption and in the longer-term should be a beneficiary of increasing amounts of business shifting online.
Strong organic revenue growth in H120 was boosted by several multi-year fraud licences and the contribution from the VIX Verify and IDology acquisitions. During H1, GB Group (GBG) made good progress with its strategy to expand internationally and enhance its product functionality and datasets. Management is confident of meeting consensus expectations for FY20; while our forecasts are unchanged at the operating profit level, a higher effective tax rate reduces our normalised EPS forecasts by c 3% in FY20–22e.
GB Group (GBG) expects to report strong revenue and profit growth for H120, with exceptional organic growth boosted by recent acquisitions. Constant currency organic growth of 18% is ahead of the company’s double-digit target, boosted to a large extent by the signing of contracts in the Fraud division that had been expected in H2. Management expects to meet FY20 consensus estimates, implying a stronger weighting to H1 revenues and profits than in previous years. We maintain our forecasts.
GB Group’s Identity capital markets day was a deep dive into the group’s largest business (36% of FY19 revenues). With electronic identity verification (eIDV) a structural growth market, GBG has invested heavily in the business over the last four years, expanding geographically and adding new capabilities and data sets. We forecast the identity business to be the fastest growing division over the next three years, underpinning the group’s targeted double-digit organic revenue growth target.
GB Group (GBG) reported FY19 results in line with recently upgraded estimates. It continues to deliver on its strategy to grow organic revenues at double-digit rates while delivering operating margins in excess of 20%. Recent acquisitions are performing well and helped drive the 56% growth in international revenues over the year. We make minor changes to our forecasts, resulting in small upgrades to normalised EPS estimates.
GB Group expects to report FY19 revenues, adjusted operating profit and net debt ahead of consensus expectations. The recent acquisitions have integrated and performed well, providing much of the upside to forecasts. We have upgraded our FY19 earnings forecasts to reflect the better trading performance in H2 and lower net debt in FY20 and FY21.
GB Group (GBG) has acquired IDology, a US identity verification business, for an enterprise value of $300m/£231m. It has placed 39m shares at 410p per share to fund £160m of the purchase price, with the remainder coming from a new credit facility. We estimate that the deal offers significant cross-selling potential and will boost GBG’s international revenues to close to 50%.
GB Group’s Loqate division was the focus of yesterday’s capital markets day. Presenters highlighted the need for accurate address data as a prerequisite for many business processes, including e-commerce, insurance and invoicing. Loqate’s ability to provide the “golden record” in a simple, fast and consistent way gives it a competitive edge and supports the division’s international growth ambitions.
GB Group's H119 results confirm that it is on track to reach its targets for 10%+ organic growth and 20%+ operating margins. As previously flagged, H119 reported growth rates are skewed by the large perpetual licence signed a year ago; adjusting for this the group achieved 11% underlying organic growth and 8% adjusted operating profit growth. We maintain our revenue and profitability forecasts, with small adjustments to our net cash forecasts.
GB Group’s H119 update confirmed that the business is trading in line with expectations, with underlying organic revenue growth of 11% and underlying operating profit growth of 7% compared to H118. While our underlying forecasts are unchanged, we have upgraded our estimates to reflect the recent Vix Verify Global acquisition, which results in a 2.7% increase in our normalised FY20 EPS forecast.
GB Group has taken another step forward in its international expansion with the acquisition of Vix Verify Global, a business specialising in ID verification and location intelligence software in Australia and New Zealand. Complementing GBG’s IDV and Loqate solutions, the acquisition will widen the datasets available to both GBG and VVG customers. The deal cost of A$38.3m/c £21.2m is being funded from existing facilities. GBG expects the deal to be earnings accretive in the first 12 months once synergies are taken into account.
GBG delivered another excellent performance in FY18 with reported adjusted EPS up 37%. With over 75% of revenues now from the global product lines, a clear organic growth plan and a healthy acquisition pipeline, we retain our forecasts and believe the shares, which trade among identity access management and cyber security peers to be well supported at these levels.
GB Group (GBG) expects to report revenues and EBIT ahead of our forecasts on a strong performance from the fraud management and global electronic verification services. Net cash of £13.4m is also well ahead. This excellent momentum underpins our 12% organic revenue growth forecast in FY19, and the strong balance sheet provides additional support to the group’s buy-and-build strategy.
GB Group’s (GBG) outlook remains strong; the bulk of revenues are now from the faster-growth international service lines, investment in growth is increasing and we see its strength in dynamic ID verification (IDV) as increasingly relevant. We forecast 15% CAGR in EPS to 2020 and see scope for GBG’s active M&A strategy to act as a catalyst to further earnings and share price upside.
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LoopUp has announced a very strong H1 period, in line with the previous trading update and reflecting a number of months of exceptional performance. This is allowing the business to invest in the major identified new opportunity, to provide telephony within Microsoft Teams, where the early signs are extremely positive. We look forward to further detail on the Teams pipeline and sales levels over time.
Companies: LoopUp Group plc
ZOO has provided a short trading update to accompany its AGM which will be held later today. The business is performing well…double-digit revenue growth y/y across H1 is clearly a strong result given the market disruption, and is tracking very well towards our full-year figure. We make no changes to estimates (which we reinstated in July) but will consider revisiting them at the time of the H1 results in early November.
Companies: ZOO Digital Group Plc
Covid has accelerated the digitisation of all things physical. No more so than in the €10 trillion global construction industry, which some experts reckon has 5 years of catching up to do. A non-insignificant task (eg Crossrail & HS2) that could take decades to play out, but equally realise 100s of £bns of cost, time & productivity savings annually. The €8bn BuildTech sector (10%+ CAGR – see below) is at the heart of this transformation. Providing the glue & ‘digital twins’ that bind all the inter-connected ‘property lifecycle’ parts together – eg CAD/CAM (design), project mgt, visualisation, AI, asset maintenance (operate) and BIM (Building Info Modelling).
Companies: Eleco Plc
As flagged in the July trading update, the Eleco group (formerly Elecosoft) has delivered impressive first half financials in the face of the global pandemic. However, the results are somewhat overshadowed by the retirement of Executive Chairman, John Ketteley, after 23 years in the role. The COO, Jonathan Hunter, takes over as CEO and the Deputy Chairman, Serena Lang, steps up to Chairman. Both are very experienced and offer safe hands to guide Eleco forward through the unprecedented conditions of COVID-19. In the early stages of the pandemic, the group demonstrated its resilience as H1 revenue slipped just 4% YoY with 57% revenue being recurring. Moreover, benefiting from reduced cost of travel and marketing, H1 adj. PBT rose 12% YoY to £2.2m. The profit uplift was matched by strong cashflow, improving net cash from £1.1m at YE to a very healthy £4.4m at the end of June. Forecasts remain under review due to uncertainty in the COVID-19 environment, but Eleco continues to be well positioned – not just to weather the storm of pandemic, but to deliver a strong financial performance across the full year.
Actively managing the business successfully through the consequences of COVID-19, Ideagen finals to end April are in line with the May trading update and unchanged expectations: EBITDA of £18.5m as expected, revenue of £56.6m (£56.0mE originally), and robust free cash flow of £10.1m robust even after COVID restructuring costs, leading y/e net debt of £16.8m (0.9x net debt/EBITDA), as expected. Rapid and effective action to accommodate the consequences of lockdown maintained the quality of business, still achieving 5% organic growth, on top of three acquisitions in the period, to deliver 21% headline revenue growth. Once again, expectations were exceeded for recurring revenue, increasing from 74% at 1H20 to 76% (FY19: 67%): target recurring revenue had already been lifted from 75 to 80% by FY22 – and the horizon is now extended to 85% by FY23. FY19 acquisitions are all now integrated in line with the 72-step efficient process; organic growth is maintained even during a pandemic; trading since year end is robust; and the acquisition pipeline still remains active. With the success of the formula evident in its execution, and the benefit of future acquisitions unmodelled, we lift our target price to 235p (220p).
Companies: Ideagen Plc
LoopUp recently unveiled a major extension to its ambitions – the group is aiming to become a leading global provider of telephony “inside” Microsoft’s Teams product. The opportunity is clear and growing, as enterprise customers look to use Teams for “normal” external phone calls, and LoopUp seems well placed to deliver a differentiated offering using its existing infrastructure and knowhow. In this document we provide an overview of the new platform and explain its strategic significance.
Ideagen is a leading supplier of information management software, specialising in Integrated Risk Management (IRM) solutions to highly regulated industries. Consistently recognised in the Gartner Magic Quadrant since 2016 for its solution set, Ideagen has developed a best-of-breed IRM suite through a blend of internally driven R&D and strategic acquisitions, earning the group significant presence in its core markets. Our mantra remains that the three certainties in life are death, taxes and regulatory compliance – Ideagen is positioned to grow from strength to strength, as organisations worldwide are faced with increasingly demanding regulatory standards, and the requirement to provide a referenceable trail of accountability. As the group embarks on its twelfth consecutive year of growth, coupled with the potential upside of inevitable acquisitions, we believe Ideagen is poised for ongoing acceleration into the coming years.
The launch of LiveData Migrator with AWS represents another big step forward for WANdisco. Aside from diversifying the sales base, it suggests that the company’s technology is becoming the established way to migrate large, active datasets to the cloud. Disappointing H1 financials and a delay in the ramp of Azure revenue from Q3 to Q4 leads us to cut our FY20 forecasts. However, Q4 should see a big uplift in financial performance and our newly introduced FY21 forecasts see sales rising to $37m.
Companies: WANdisco Plc
Salarius Ltd. (91.7% owned by TEK) has signed a distribution agreement with FXM Ingredients Inc. to distribute MicroSalt® in Mexico and Latin America.
Companies: Tekcapital Plc
The headline numbers in this morning's results are not new news, having already been flagged to the market in the company's update on August 13th. Rather, the new news is (1) cost-savings in excess of £1m, (2) post-period end contract wins which add around £2m to FY20E likely revenues, (3) breaking of some H1 logjams due to Covid, with key design reviews passed for General Dynamics and substantial invoices raised and paid. £2m net cash on the balance sheet previously flagged is confirmed, and the Absolute Data Group (ADG) acquisition has integrated well. With effective conversion of the Letter of Intent relating to a Middle East customer during H1, and additional orders from other clients, the company's expectation of uplift in H2 looks to be well underpinned. Clearly the company rolled with the Covid punches in the first half; however the £1m annualised savings look to be really helpful in supporting FY21E financials and the order book remains healthy (+9% since the year end). Frustratingly, the Major Programme previously announced in PEN's pipeline remains a waiting game; however, we would still see conversion as transformational.
Companies: Pennant International Group Plc
Crimson Tide has reported a strong set of H1 results evidencing very strong sales momentum backed by long-term contracts and cash flow. H1 sales grew by 40% and EPS by 154%. Net cash has improved to £0.8m at June 2020 from nil at December 2019. The strategic focus on transportation and supermarkets is working well, partnerships are improving routes to market, and there is growing traction from investments in innovation. We have left our forecasts unchanged for now, but recognise positive pressure and have upgraded our target price from 3.1p to 4.3p. We reiterate our view that Crimson Tide’s valuation will be dictated by its ability to convert the significant opportunity rather than short-term metrics. H1 results show the group is nicely on track to do exactly that.
Companies: Crimson Tide Plc
Renalytix has officially commercially launched the KidneyIntelX testing platform with its launch partner Mount Sinai. The test is now fully integrated into the Mount Sinai health system, and goes beyond mere patient testing into a holistic approach to CKD patient support with Mount Sinai’s care delivery, physician education and support and billing pathways. This is a pivotal milestone for Renalytix triggering first commercial testing revenues, and was achieved in less than two years since Renalytix first IPOd in November 2018. It is estimated there are approx. 66,000 Diabetic kidney disease patients at the Mount Sinai health system, representing a significant initial addressable market opportunity. We continue to expect the launch and similar integrations of the KidneyIntelX platform into two further health care systems in FY’21. Simultaneously, Renalytix also announced agreements with LabCorp and an unnamed national medical logistics provider to use additional service centres to support the launch with the collection of blood samples at centres close to home or by primary physicians within the Mount Sinai system. Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the impact on physician visits, we believe this is beneficial and aids the use of KidneyIntelX to remotely monitor patients. This also provides a logistics framework to scale this process across multiple territories in the US.
Companies: Renalytix AI Plc
Tern plc* (TERN.L, 8.0p/£24.1m) | Corero Network Security (CNS.L, 8.25p/£40.8m) | Eagle Eye Solutions Group plc (EYE.L, 288p/£86.9m)
Companies: TERN CNS EYE
PTY's results this morning are in line with indications given by the company on July 20th, when the company announced anticipated gross revenues of £30m and a “modest” adjusted pre-tax profit, in line with the adjusted PBTA of £0.06m published this morning, and a significantly reduced reported pre-tax loss. As previously announced, the company succeeded in moving from net debt (£1.2m pre lease liabilities) to net cash, £0.7m, at the half year end. Cost-savings have been significant at £4.2m gross, £2.4m net, opening the door to the significant transformation undertaken by the company and creating a new and robust underlying platform which has been stress-tested by Covid. As expected, net revenues (net fee income) have reduced on the back of the Scottish Government contract exit, which was low-margin and in run-off. The company expects to achieve a full-year profit equivalent to >£0.1m PBTA posted in FY2019A and a notable feature of the results is that no more non-underlying costs are expected going forward, leading to prospective upside both adjusted and unadjusted.
Companies: Parity Group Plc
Location Sciences Group PLC (LON:LSAI) is a high growth technology company and a global leader in location verification. The company recently reported results for the first half (H1) of 2020. These were in line with the trading update issued in July, with revenues up 1% (or +43% including securitis
Companies: Location Sciences Group Plc