The road to redemption

A blocked takeover attempt and a failed project implementation have materially dampened attitudes towards the stock. However, should Tribal progress from these events, attention should switch back to the core business, which continues to perform robustly - FY23 core ARR: grew 13% to £51.1m, while EBITDA is +8% a/h of Jan’s update hence TRB offers a re-rating opportunity, as/when perceived risks/rewards potentially improve. Additionally, we see scope for further value generation, as the stock’s f

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Feb 24

23rd February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obj

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 02 Feb 24

2nd February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje

Fears well overdone – a gift on 1x sales

Since Ellucian’s failed bid, shares have rolled over sharply and are testing all-time lows, such implying a severely challenged business. We think this view is materially unfounded, especially following today’s FY23 update, which highlights a materially better net debt out-turn, at £7.2m vs. £11.5mE, while EBITDA should also be c.£1m better. Finally, TRB’s y/e ARR also shows strong progress (notwithstanding NTU’s distraction): +9% y/y to £54.5m or +13% wrt. ‘core ARR’ only. A resilient performan

Solid core. Cash & NTU could provide turning points

In context of Tribal’s challenging NTU contract, interims to June provide reassuring reading, as notwithstanding this headwind, the company still grew sales +2% y/y, and ARR by +3% cc. to £51.9m. ‘Core ARR’ meanwhile has grown +6% since y/e, driven by Edge and Tribal:Cloud, where Tribal has secured a three further upsells. Education Services meanwhile performed very well: sales +39% y/y. Gross profit and AOP are also up, the latter +30% to £6.7m or +10% u/l - excluding an NTU provision release,

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Mar 23

24 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Looking through the fog

Tribal has provided a useful NTU update, suggesting that the two parties are working towards winding the contract down, albeit negotiations are still ongoing. While this is clearly not an optimal outcome, it nevertheless reduces uncertainty surrounding the stock and so should enable investors to focus on the core business, which continues to perform strongly – delivering +10% u/l ARR growth (despite the NTU loss). With a strong and sticky core market position and an increasingly international pr

NTU update and change of reporting date

We learn today that Tribal has received notification that NTU has terminated its contract and reserved its rights to claim damages. Tribal meanwhile rejects this right to terminate and is considering its next steps. Furthermore - to accommodate this update, the company now expects to report results on 24th March. We therefore consider it is most appropriate to temporarily withdraw forecasts until we regain clarity over this situation and the most likely financial impact.

FY'22 in-line with rebased forecasts & NTU update

Tribals FY22 update guides to performance in-line with recently rebased forecasts implying c.4% top-line growth and £7.3m EBITDA (-56% y/y, but more like £12m u/l) as profitability has been impacted due to isolated factors surrounding the NTU contract. Meanwhile separate to this, broader trading has actually been encouraging and shows how Tribals is executing against its strategic goals. For instance in 2022, TRB secured several multi-million, multi-year Education Services renewals, while in SIS

NTU contract pains

Tribal has announced that the implementation and delivery of its contract with NTU has continued to be more complicated and more costly to deliver, meaning this will be an onerous contract to the tune of £12m. This compares to what could have been £7m GP, so a £19m delta in economic value or FCF over the initial contract term. How this translates to numbers – FY22e & FY23e revenue is unchanged, GP reduces (to reflect higher costs) by £-4m in FY22 and £-9m in FY23 and u/l cash opex stays the same

Audioboom Group - Q1 24 revenue growth of +11%, FY24E forecasts reiterated

Audioboom’s FY23 results and Q1 trading update show Q1 24 revenue growth of +11% yoy, $6.7m of March 2024 revenue marking the platform’s highest revenue month since May 2022, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. Following the focus on new initiatives through FY23, the platform is now in its strongest ever operational position, with a record 1.1bn monthly ad impressions created in March 2024, record global audience reach of 38.6m unique global listeners in Janua

Alphawave Semi: FY23 trading update, amended forward guidance

Alphawave Semi has reduced guidance for FY23 and prospectively citing lower revenues from China, changes in expected revenue recognition from long-term contracts, and continuing investment in R&D. The share price has reacted negatively, giving up most of the gains since the trading statement at the end of January. Current consensus, which is a good match for pre-existing guidance, should be reduced, most likely following release of the FY23 results and full 1Q24 trading update due on 23 April. H

Crimson Tide - FY23 reports +15% revenue; investment phase complete

Crimson Tide has reported FY23 results to December in line with expectations, with additional operating leverage benefitting updated FY24 and maiden FY25 and FY26 forecasts. FY23 delivered +15% revenue growth to £6.2m at 86% GM, of which over 90% is recurring, and maintained £5.8m ARR even after unexpected customer churn in the year as we previously noted. Crucially, the Group achieved milestone adj EBITDA profitability of £0.4m at 7% EBITDA margin, and edges closer to adj PBT profitability expe

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Devolver Digital (DEVO LN) - Rebuild year

Devolver Digital encouragingly delivered 2023 results slightly ahead of expectations and provided a steady medium-term outlook that leads us to reiterate our 2024 Adjusted EBITDA estimates. Longer term, the company is now planning to further develop its two major planned titles, Human Fall Flat 2 and System Era's next major new release. We now expect those major titles to be released in 2026 rather than 2025, meaning we lower our 2025 Adjusted EBITDA forecast to $10.6m from $17.6m but introduce

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

Checkit - New product launch and contract wins

Checkit has won contracts with two customers worth at least £417k over the three-year lives of the contracts, confirming its ability to upsell to its existing customer base and supporting our forecasts. Having trialled the new technology with multiple customers, Checkit has launched its Asset Intelligence module, which uses advanced analytics and machine learning to enhance customer sustainability, reduce costs and increase revenue.

Soft growth patch

Auction Technology Group - H1/24 Trading update

ATG’s H1/24 trading statement indicates revenue for the six-month period to 31 March 2024 was $86m, a 6% increase on H1/23 (1% organic growth), helped by the addition of the EstateSales.Net (ESN) marketplace last year, which performed well in the period. Total marketplace revenue increased 2% (organic), driven by growth in value-added services (VAS) and event fees, offsetting a decline in commission revenue (mainly through lower asset prices).

Morning Note – 17 April 2024

Touchstar - Full year results: Recurring revenue strategy delivers further profit growth

Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. This morning's full year results reflect the outcome of a multi-year strategy coming to fruition for the group, with recurring revenue growth of 8.7% delivering overall revenue growth of 7.1% and in turn a 60% increase in PBT to £0.7m. Over the past few years, Touchstar has focused on enhancing the returns from their product offering through a shift towards recurring software licen

It’s not what you sell, it’s the way that you sell it

This report is intended to help UK small- and mid-cap investors gain a better understanding of software companies’ routes to market, and to highlight how one of the most important facets of the way in which they grow and deliver value is routinely ignored.  We examine sales processes for six UK-listed companies and one that has recently been taken over, and consider why they have followed their respective paths.

Engage XR Holdings - Expanding from FY23, FY24E forecasts reiterated

ENGAGE XR’s FY23 results show revenue and net cash in line with the February trading update, EBITDA ahead at -€4.0m vs -€4.5m due to the split of cash outflow between opex and working capital, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E forecasts. FY23 revenue for the core ENGAGE platform was unchanged vs FY22 at €3.3m, as H2 23 revenue was impacted by the record seven-figure contract announced in February shifting to 2024, and several enterprise customers scaling back renewals

LIBERUM: Cirata plc: Cirata from the flames

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024