It''s so tempting to be contrarian. Sentiment is as low as we can ever remember, shares are at near 25-year lows, the discount to SOTP is enticing, and a strategically smart portfolio reset could put a rocket under the share. Caveat emptor: consensus looks too high, not least on the Achilles heel of the Germany unit, and potential buyers for the assets are thin on the ground. So, while we increase FY25 FCF by 7% and our TP to 80p from 73p, we retain our Neutral rating. Little respite in the short term across Europe With the exception of the UK, Vodafone''s European businesses are performing poorly. The disappointing FY24 guidance in May did reset expectations somewhat for EBITDA, but consensus still looks high for FCF: we are 7% below on FY24 and 12% on FY25. Germany: Sturm und Drang We expect energy costs and broadband churn to reduce EBITDA by 5% in FY24, before some stabilisation in FY25 as energy headwinds reverse - though TV is likely to be a headache. We might have to wait for the kick-in of the new 1and1 National Roaming Agreement in FY26 for EBITDA growth. Asset sales: Breaking up is very hard to do We estimate a blue-sky break-up valuation of nearly 120p. Vodafone could thus slim its global portfolio, earn a rerating, and reinvest proceeds on shoring up its key European operations with higher capex/in-market MandA. We see few buyers, however, as rates cut into multiples. How low can the dividend go? A cut is consensual, but we estimate that Vodafone is currently paying out around 2x its normalised FCF, adjusting for normalised spectrum and restructuring, suggesting the dividend could be halved. Underlying valuation broadly in line with peers Vodafone shares trade on a guidance-basis FCFY of 14%. However, factoring in spectrum replacement/restructuring, adjusted FCFY is close to peers at ~6%.