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21 May 2024
Gamma : An encouraging message - Buy
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Gamma : An encouraging message - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 906 -27.2 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 835.1m
- Published:
21 May 2024 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
We infer AGM statement commentary to mean c.9%-10% group growth at headline level when including acquisitions, with underlying UK growth likely in the 5%-7% range. Our bottom-of-the-range forecasts sit below this; we leave forecasts unchanged for now, but performance is implicitly tracking ahead of our numbers across the different segments. Strong cash generation has evidently carried on through to the end of April.
There is no product commentary, but, following on from FY results in March, we infer good core cloud PBX adds in Q1, plus the now-established strategic buttressing of growth and ARPU from upsells and the wider product range. The Enterprise segment was flat on an underlying basis in H2/23 on H1/23, but there now seems to have been an improvement, with a relatively vibrant backdrop and both pipeline and order book progressing well. This is headlined by the Morrisons win, which we broadly expect to be meaningful in a similar way to Aldi several years ago, with this set to contribute materially from FY25E onwards.
The statement references lower European growth than the UK, but underlying performance is not dissimilar to 2023. However, FX has become a slight headwind instead of tailwind last year, and there was a small inorganic boost from Neotel. The message is therefore (for some) not to get too carried away short term, albeit the long-term European opportunity remains sizeable.
Recent momentum in the shares has started to correct what was a gross undervaluation, but trailing FCF remains >6% and EV/EBITDA well below the 12x-15x NTM range we consider reasonable. Hence, we reiterate Buy and our 1800p TP, broadly reflecting the middle of this EBITDA range.