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05 Jun 2020
Gamma : Cautious optimism exiting lockdown - Buy

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Gamma : Cautious optimism exiting lockdown - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 1,105 154.7 1.3% | Mkt Cap: 1,018m
- Published:
05 Jun 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
The key AGM update messages are resilience and cautious optimism. H1 trading detail includes: i) a surge of interest towards the end of Q1 for cloud PBX and unified comms, as part of a higher prioritisation of comms spend, but then followed by ii) extension of new business acquisition sales cycles in Q2. This largely relates to restrictions on travel and physical meetings, and so should be temporary. However, the duration is unknown at this stage, iii) continued volume adds in SIP trunking and cloud PBX despite the above, and iv) no real change in churn or bad debt, but product “hibernation” for <5% of the user base leading to c.£1.2m lost EBITDA, which is strictly a Q2 effect.
After c.13% organic revenue growth in H2 last year, our various product line assumptions boil down to a c.5% group organic growth rate in FY20E, so a new business acquisition slowdown lasting through the year should already be factored in. In fact, commentary that cloud PBX and SIP trunk adds have continued tends to suggest possible upside. However, we keep forecasts unchanged for now, as opposed to jumping to conclusions.
Considering events in cloud PBX so far in 2020, Gamma’s moves in 2019 look timely. COVID-19 has acted as a major spur in interest for unified comms functionality; Gamma’s Collaborate was released in 2019, and the group’s SMB base gives a long upselling runway lasting years. At the enterprise end of the market, Microsoft Teams has consolidated its position as a particularly strong player. Acquiring Exactive, as a leading UK Teams managed support house, means Gamma should benefit here. While this was a small deal initially, so was the 2012 Varidion purchase (now >£35m revs in 2019). SIP trunk integration to Teams is another growth avenue.
We retain our TP and Buy, seeing an essentially unchanged strategy and likely continued financial outperformance, across a range of economic scenarios.