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25 Mar 2024
Gamma : FY results: signal still loud and clear - Buy

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Gamma : FY results: signal still loud and clear - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 1,083 43.3 0.4% | Mkt Cap: 998.0m
- Published:
25 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Results are in line with the ranges outlined in the January update, and marginally ahead of our own estimates. CFFO / EBITDA conversion was particularly excellent, well above the normal range at c.108%. Incorporating the announced c.£35m buyback, EPS edges up for FY24E after several other tweaks. Forecast changes: FY24E revenue £551.8m (prev. £541.9m), EBITDA £120.9m (£119.5m), EPS 78.4p (77.1p).
Reflecting the tougher macro, the UK growth profile did slow a bit in H2, down to mid-single digit in the Business segment, while ex-Satisnet, Enterprise segment revenues were slightly down. The outlook statement comment for some improvement in Q1 is therefore encouraging, particularly suggestive of a bounce-back in growth for Enterprise through 2024.
Product strategy is evolving, with focus on Ericsson and Cisco in the statement. Cisco has always been a soft-switch technology partner for Horizon, so this is a re-affirmation in one sense, but essentially we see an expansion of the product range at the enterprise end of unified comms. There may be less focus on the Collaborate UCaaS upsell module, but otherwise this is additive, i.e. no “mothball” implications for the rest of product range.
Phoneline+ adds are small but encouraging at +12k, while there is a comment over competitor metallic path framework solutions leading to a more graduated migration of single user lines post-PSTN switch-off in 2025. We never went in for the “mini-boom” argument in the first place, and do not think this is a factor in investor sentiment, long-range, the population of single user lines (several million) will still shift to a cloud telephony solution.
The shares have staged the beginnings of a recovery in the last few months, but sub-10x EBITDA and FCF yield in excess of 6% still looks good value to us.