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05 Sep 2023
Gamma : Interims: signal strength strong - Buy

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Gamma : Interims: signal strength strong - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 992 -238.2 (-2.4%) | Mkt Cap: 914.7m
- Published:
05 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Ross Broadfoot | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Headlines: H1 performance is healthy with c.9% growth delivered by a mixture of continued volume uptick, but also pricing improvements in select areas in the group’s largest segment (Gamma Business). As a result, the Business segment is compounding steadily away as usual, while Europe is a modest pleasant surprise at high single digit underlying revenue / gross profit growth and double digit EBITDA growth. Cashflow is better than usual at a >100% headline CFFO / EBITDA, with total capex also trending to the bottom of the full year guidance range (c.£22m-£25m).
Strategy: Interims are proof that the strategy to build out product families in recent years is working to sustain growth and (at least) stabilise overall ARPU. Core UK SIP trunk volumes are flattish (unsurprisingly) while healthy gross adds in core UK cloud PBX were offset by a handful of churn items, bringing down net adds (+4%). However, the various upsells and bolt-ons are offsetting this, particularly Teams-related products. Substitution of Horizon for Phoneline+ at the very bottom of the cloud PBX base is referenced, but is minor and should be placed in context against Phoneline+ market capture opportunity from >3m single user telephony lines set to transition as part of the forthcoming PSTN switch-off. Continued (select) pricing power is likely to buttress growth.
Forecasts: H1 out-turn along with statement commentary confirms that the business is tracking to the upper half of consensus (£110m-£117m EBITDA). We were bottom of the range and so our upgrades today narrow the range upwards. FY23E revenue £515.1m (£507.7m), EBITDA £113.8m (£110.4m), EPS 74.2p (70.0p), FY24E revenue £541.9m (£528.0m), EBITDA £119.5m (£115.6m), EPS 77.1p (72.0p). Our new forecasts imply limited sequential improvement in H2, and so have potential for further upside, in our view.
View: We retain Buy and our 1800p TP, broadly reflecting the midpoint of the c.12x-15x NTM EBITDA range we think is reasonable.