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20 May 2021
Gamma : Kicking on - Buy

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Gamma : Kicking on - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 1,060 -148.4 (-1.3%) | Mkt Cap: 976.9m
- Published:
20 May 2021 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
7 -
The AGM update guides to the top end of the consensus range, but there is a rider; that “the UK will not enter into another lockdown period”. We are bottom of the range, and based on the rider, keep forecasts unchanged for now, but acknowledge that our forecasts now represent a “going wrong” scenario, as opposed to “business as usual”.
The basic numerical support to this is that the 2020 run-rate of business (+£11.5m organic EBITDA addition) plus pro-forma adjustment for European acquisitions in 2020 gets to a low-90s (£m’s) outcome for EBITDA.
The update lists out a slate of Q2 product releases, to be explained in detail at the forthcoming CMD. The new news is the availability of “SoGEA” broadband (single order generic ethernet access) which, put simply, is business broadband without requiring line rental. We see this as an additional offering for the group’s data access portfolio alongside standard broadband and ethernet, albeit part of SoGEA’s relevance is that a combination with Phoneline+ is cheaper than traditional line rental and broadband. SoGEA adoption cannibalises wholesale line rental within the “traditional” segment, albeit this is not financially material (FY20 c.£15m revenue, teens % GM).
Phoneline+ and the associated CircleLoop digital product is the Q2 launch with long-run transformational potential, in simplistically being a cut-down UCaaS product for the millions of business single user lines, and being easily portable internationally, albeit at a lower price point than “classic SIP”.
Full-scale integration of the Horizon cloud PBX with Teams is set for availability in Q3. Pricing is still to be finalised, but this could be for a possible increment on standard Horizon pricing.
Gamma remains a core recommendation for us; we retain Buy and revise our FCF scenario analysis which drives a new target price of 2100p (1900p).