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20 Jul 2020
Gamma : Premium rate performance - Buy

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Gamma : Premium rate performance - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 1,105 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 1,018m
- Published:
20 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Interim update language suggests that EPS is likely to be 5%-10% ahead of our expectation. We place forecasts under review pending more detail at interims on 8 Sep. The beat is a mixture of organic outperformance plus acquisitions performing ahead of plan. For the former, we expected a significant slowdown in FY20E at c.5% organic revenue growth versus c.13% in H2 last year, with no incremental new business adds expected in SIP and cloud PBX. While there was some slowing in Q2, trading was more resilient than forecast. Net adds appear now to be recovering fairly quickly, and data around the Collaborate product is encouraging, likely reflecting cloud PBX / unified comms being a strategic priority for all types of business at present.
H1 saw significant steps taken towards establishing a pan-European unified comms asset, with an initial acquisition in Germany, and an acquisition in Spain. At a proforma c.£8m 2019 EBITDA i.e. >10% of group, Europe has now started to become more tangible and material to the investment case, as opposed to an interesting optionality. The acquisition of GnTel in Holland adds c.£1m of additional proforma EBITDA, further critical mass with c.40k cloud PBX seats, and an IT partner-focused channel, to combine with Dean One’s more classic telco-channel characteristics.
On the basis of initial consideration paid, Gamma’s European asset in total has cost c.£68m so far at a trailing EV/EBITDA of 8.5x, rising to 9.9x including deferred consideration. At the very least this appears to be a sensible earnings stream at a sensible price. The upside case is far greater; the leading emerging European cloud PBX asset, with a massive overall TAM and c.5% penetration to date, suggesting in theory that tens of millions of incremental EBITDA could be layered on – but it is early days yet.
We retain Buy with a reworked FCF scenario driving an upgraded TP of 1580p from 1530p, and view the stock as a core holding.