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                    07 Sep 2021 
Gamma : Signal coming through loud and clear - Buy
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Gamma : Signal coming through loud and clear - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 988 -98.8 (-1.0%) | Mkt Cap: 910.5m
- Published: 
07 Sep 2021  - 
                                            
                                            
                                            Author:
                                                
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips  - 
                                            
                                            Pages:
                                                
6  - 
                                            
                                         
Interims are implicitly tracking ahead of our FY expectation; we calculate H1 saw 9% organic revenue growth for the group overall, versus 6% modelled for FY21E. Having upgraded at the interim update stage, we leave forecasts for key P&L metrics unchanged, but these look more than comfortable and capable of possible upside nearer the FY stage.
The H1 result is primarily due to UK core performance. Volume adds for cloud PBX / unified comms are consistent with previous periods, with Collaborate upsell looking decent. As a “product family”, SIP trunking has actually accelerated volumes, with this principally due to success in selling direct routing to Microsoft Teams. Recently released cloud contact centre functionality has also had a good early reception; together with Teams integration, this is important in keeping the portfolio current and relevant for the channel. Still, results are mostly down to the “old favourites”, and new product releases of late represent a longer term opportunity.
The European asset delivered flat gross profit in H1 on H2 last year. We see this as down to: i) the Spanish direct business under pressure from the poor macro, ii) more of a “legacy” mix in general within European businesses, iii) a slight forex headwind from sterling strength (c.£400k). Underlying all this, cloud PBX seat growth is healthy at c.6% from the start to the end of the half and we believe is at least keeping share. We continue to see EBITDA (c.£4m in H1) as suppressed by ongoing investment and set-up to deliver long term scale. 
The global chip shortage has potential to exacerbate competitive difference in the cloud PBX market. Gamma has inventory in the short term and is in a strong buying position with the key handset supplier, leaving it in a better position than many smaller vendors, which may not be in as fortunate a position. 
We retain our Buy with our new TP of 2550p representing c.25x FY23E EV/EBITDA and c.40x EV/NOPAT, in line with current FY21E metrics.