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02 Aug 2022
Gamma : Signal still crystal clear - Buy
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Gamma : Signal still crystal clear - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 994 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 916.1m
- Published:
02 Aug 2022 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Interim update: Language around segment performance is near-identical to the AGM stage, and in our view is meant to demonstrate that performance has remained robust since May with no major variance to note. An added rider mentions “strong” y-o-y EBITDA growth in H1; on the inference that this means double-digit, this suggests only limited incremental growth is required H2 on H1 to hit our middle-of-the-range EBITDA number. Reference to select price increases in different product categories is also worth noting, considering bear stories of the last twelve months suggesting the opposite. Closing cash is implicitly tracking ahead of FY and seemingly implies strong CFFO / EBITDA conversion (again) with significant surplus cash now on the balance sheet.
Recession-proofing: In any theoretical recessionary environment of widespread slowing corporate spend, Gamma is unlikely to be completely immune, but still a relative outperformer as i) >90% of revenue is of a recurring nature, and in key product categories (SIP and cloud PBX) we estimate over two-thirds of revenue to be contractually recurring on multi-year deals. Usage revenue is essentially communication, which we see as not directly correlated to economic conditions, ii) legacy voice has been under pressure for more than two decades, and price pressure in business telco is fairly standard, so quality businesses such as Gamma evolve bundled product and pricing propositions to create flexibility to deal with this; hence should be relatively able to adjust to worsening conditions versus point competitors, iii) high investment in product strategy in recent years means an array of new products and upsells, i.e. levers to pull. A thinning of the herd where there is a “long tail” of competition, such as in cloud PBX, may be advantageous for stronger players such as Gamma.
Valuation / conclusion: The stock looks severely oversold to us and cash-backed with an attractive FCF yield here; we retain our 1800p TP. Buy.