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15 Jan 2020
Gamma : Signal strength as healthy as ever - Buy

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Gamma : Signal strength as healthy as ever - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 1,068 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 984.2m
- Published:
15 Jan 2020 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
Based on trading update commentary, we anticipate EBITDA / EPS to be c.4%-7% ahead of our expectations. Net cash is c.5% ahead of plan, which implies another strong period for cash conversion. Forecasts are placed under review, to be finalised when the exact detail of FY results are available on 17 March, but we would broadly anticipate upgrades for FY20E to mirror the beat delivered for FY19.
The basic message is that nothing really fundamentally changed in H2, with volume adds and revenue growth for both SIP trunking and cloud PBX remaining strong throughout H2, similar to H1 performance. Nothing additional is worth calling out on the macro versus what was said at H1 results. The direct business has also grown strongly and the order book suggests FY20 will deliver another excellent performance.
The release of Collaborate unified comms functionality consolidates SME segment market leadership in cloud PBX, and the strategic position is healthy, but competition is high and the group has to keep investing and building out the feature set. Collaborate has not been explicitly forecast to date and so represents optionality in financial terms; the exact blend of volume growth and pricing optimisation has not yet settled (which is as expected), but channel reaction is effusive. Acquiring Telsis now allows a build-out of “contact centre for SMEs” functionality and we expect more detail on UCaaS product strategy along with FY results.
We retain Buy and our 1530p TP; the shares have had a very strong run and may now mark time in the short term, but ongoing upgrades through the year from a combination of solid organic growth in FY20, a bit more operational gearing, plus likely M&A accretion in due course – where care is rightly being taken to land the right asset – is an attractive combination to us.