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02 Aug 2023
Gamma : Signal strength healthy - Buy

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Gamma : Signal strength healthy - Buy
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 998 59.9 0.6% | Mkt Cap: 919.3m
- Published:
02 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Ross Broadfoot | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
6 -
We infer the interim update wording to imply high single digit (c.9%-10%) growth in group revenue and EBITDA, with flattish margins as select price increases offset wage inflation. We leave forecasts unchanged and will update at interims, but assuming solid sequential H2 EBITDA growth tends to suggest FY23 EBITDA comfortably in the upper half of the consensus range. Rising interest rates likely additionally help consensus interest income, so top of the range EPS appears feasible. Net cash appears to be tracking (+£10m) ahead of plan.
There is a reporting change with new segments reflecting customer groups rather than route to market. The “Business” segment is effectively UK Indirect plus a reclassified c.£13m rev / £2m EBITDA moved from the Direct business, which we believe is a rump of a few thousand small cloud PBX / UCaaS customers. The “Enterprise” segment is the remaining UK Direct business.
The “Business” segment performed well in H1 (“strong” implies double digit growth to us) with the strategy of expanded product families driving growth across the range, while keeping ARPU stable. We expect gross adds in core cloud PBX to have been solid as usual (>30k), but slightly higher churn, lowering net adds by a few thousand to below the usual level. There is also a comment around Phoneline+ switching from Horizon, but this is something we expect only partially applies to the bottom end of the Horizon base.
We assume the “Enterprise” business (i.e., most of UK Direct) broadly delivered mid-single digit growth in H1, with continued order flow through the period and strong contractual cover, but increased focus on H2 execution. On balance, Europe is slightly better than expected, revenue is a push / pull between legacy decline against good underlying cloud PBX seat growth, but gross profit and EBITDA are both performing well (i.e., we assume double-digit growth).
An early-teens cash adjusted PE and >5% FCF yield look excellent value to us, and we retain Buy and our TP, still seeing this as a core holding.