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03 Sep 2019
Investec - Gamma (Buy): Stellar showing

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Investec - Gamma (Buy): Stellar showing
Gamma Communications PLC (GAMA:LON) | 1,046 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 964.0m
- Published:
03 Sep 2019 -
Author:
Julian Yates | Roger Phillips -
Pages:
8 -
H1 results are well ahead of implicit expectations, mainly due to strong operational gearing showing through. This is a combination of gross margin strength through product mix, and tightly controlled opex build. As a result, core business EBITDA margin has cracked through the 20% barrier with relatively strong organic growth for the UK channel business in particular.
Organic growth performance is strong at c.10% revenue / 18% gross profit with volume adds for SIP and cloud PBX (both +10%) solid and the group still taking share, and being market segment leader in both cases. Upsells such as SIP Trunk Call Manager are protecting pricing and margins. The Collaborate unified comms product had a successful introduction in Q2 with c.4k paying users; the upsell opportunity into the existing base (c.480k) is theoretically material, but functionality is strong to the point that channel partners are initially using the product to win new cloud PBX business at the “large SME” end of the market.
Overseas business is tracking well at c.£1.2m trading EBITDA in H1/19 versus our c.£1.8m FY19E expectation; however, contingent deferred consideration (which we assumed paid) was for higher stretch targets which will not be achieved. Therefore, the contingent cash payment drops out of our FY19E cashflow, driving a substantial cashflow upgrade for FY19E-FY20E. Adj CFFO / EBITDA conversion also tracked ahead in H1. We edge up revenue forecasts, while profit / EPS forecasts are upgraded 10% / 8% for FY19E-FY20E.
In an increasingly uncertain macro environment for corporate spend, we see Gamma as a core “Brexit-defensive” holding, with >90% recurring revenues (primarily rental), “run-the-business” type products that are cheaper than legacy alternatives, conservative forecasting (limited H2 on H1 progression implied on new forecasts), and possible further M&A accretion in due course.