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The Q3 numbers were globally in line with our expectations. The main issue with Swisscom is that its dividend is likely to remain unchanged at CHF22 for a few more years as the Swiss EBITDA less capex should be stable in the coming years. We are at reduce with 5% upside. Swisscom offers the lowest dividend yield of the sector at 4% and, while the Swiss 10y is at only 1.05%, the US 10y is still at… 4.7%.
Companies: Swisscom AG
AlphaValue
The Q1 numbers were globally in line with expectations and with the outlook for 2023. While the EBITDA could grow at 2% per year from 2023 with stabilising revenue, in parallel capex will remain stable and at a high level. We continue to expect no dividend increase before…2025. The dividend yield is now only 3.55%: we remain at reduce on the stock with some small downside.
A promising quarter with 1.5% revenue growth in Switzerland in Q4. But time is still needed before the group decides to increase its dividend (flat for 12 years). Swisscom already proposes payment of an unchanged dividend of CHF22 per share for…2023 (to be paid in 2024). But, since the beginning of November, the stock has recovered by 20% and offers again a 4% dividend yield. Well isn’t it better to buy the US bond at 5%?
Nothing special to say regarding the operational numbers: Swisscom is currently a no-growth story in terms of EBITDA. Despite the decision to employ P2P connections for its ftth network, Swisscom’s capex will also remain stable in the coming years. And the will thus dividend remain unchanged. Swisscom’s share price has declined by 20% since August, leaving the current dividend yield at a more attractive 4.85%. We are again at Add on the stock.
No real surprises in the Q1 figures. The Swisscom stock price has proved very resilient to the war in Ukraine, remaining stable in March before rising in line with the sector to reach a high in mid-April of CHF575. At these levels the dividend yield is 3.8% and, given the current climate of rising long-term interest rates, we see the stock as fully priced and maintain our opinion at Reduce.
No surprise with the Q4 figures but the outlook for 2022 is no more exciting than last year’s. Swisscom is currently clearly a no-growth story in terms of EBITDA less capex. So we therefore believe that the dividend is not about to increase before… 2025. We maintain our opinion at Add but we clearly prefer to invest today in telcos with a higher yield and which moreover should increase their dividends in the coming years, like KPN, Tele2 or Orange.
Swisscom released its Q3 yesterday morning. The release and the new outlook for 2021 were disappointing and the stock dropped by 7.4%. The stock, which had recovered to its pre-COVID-19 prices (CHF550) is just over CHF500 this morning. Two days ago, we were at Reduce at CHF550, while the group offered a best in class dividend yield of 4%. Now the stock is back to the CHF500 level we pass by again with an Add with a target price at… CHF549.
A good Q1: the revenue decline in the Swiss core business stopped this quarter and Swisscom no longer expects Swiss revenue to decline in 2021. Swisscom will pay an unchanged dividend of CHF22 in 2021-22, corresponding to a 4.6% yield which offers little potential if the telecom sector ends up regaining its pre-COVID-19 returns.
Revenues and EBITDA were perfectly in line with expectations in Q4. As for 2021, in Switzerland, it will not be possible to make up fully for the decline in revenue through cost savings like in 2020. Fastweb will, however, remain the growth engine and Swisscom should be a perfect no-growth story. Swisscom will pay an unchanged dividend of CHF22 in 2021-22, corresponding to a 4.5% yield which offers only little potential if the telecom sector ends up regaining its pre-COVID-19 returns.
EBITDA was up by 2.5% despite an expected 2.2% revenue decline, reflecting the clear effects of a continued restructuring in Switzerland. A positive quarter for a defensive stock. Note that the dividend will be maintain for 2020 at CHF22, taking this same dividend run to nine years. The stock is trading 15% below its end-2019 levels and we are at Add with 15% upside.
The COVID-19 pandemic will have had little impact on the H1 results and Swisscom will maintain its dividend at the current level for the next year. However, the event of August remains the takeover of Sunrise by Liberty Global which owns the cable operator UPC Switzerland. These developments have led us to remain cautious on the stock which seems at its price (we have a 6% potential upside).
Revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations in 2019. Swisscom will propose payment of an unchanged dividend of CHF 22 per share for 2020. Note that it will be nine years now (since 2011) that Swisscom offers the same annual dividend. And it should be maintained at this level for 2020 as capex and EBITDA are expected to be stable or to decrease by 1% yoy. The group seems at its price and we are at reduce on the stock.
Still no surprise for the… Swiss bond with its Q3 numbers. Swisscom is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in the sector at 4.45%. So it allows limited potential upside for the stock. We maitain our opinion at Add with a 5% upside.
The second mobile operator in Switzerland, Sunrise, was said to have been in discussions with Liberty Global regarding a possible acquisition of UPC Switzerland since the beginning of February. Sunrise yesterday announced its agreement to buy Liberty Global’s Swiss cable operator in a CHF6.3bn deal to create a bigger challenger to Switzerland’s dominant telco Swisscom. Sunrise will pay Liberty Global CHF2.6bn in cash, and assume CHF3.6bn of UPC’s debt. It corresponds to 8X the current EBITDA.
No surprise for the… Swiss bond with its Q4 numbers. Swisscom is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in the sector (with the Finnish Elisa) at 4.75%. So it allows a limited potential upside for the stock given that a 4.5% dividend yield seems to be the minimum required today in the sector. We maitain our opinion at Add with a 9% upside.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Swisscom AG. We currently have 32 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
Just 15 months after winning its first order in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communications market, Filtronic has announced a 5-year strategic partnership with SpaceX which includes an initial $19.7m (£15.8m) E-band amplifier production order for delivery in FY25. As a result, we upgrade our FY24/FY25 forecasts and lift our target price to 57.4p (was 37.5p), equivalent to 74% upside. Although this is the first time SpaceX’s Starlink has been named as a Filtronic customer, this is now the
Companies: Filtronic plc
Cavendish
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
Filtronic has signed a strategic partnership and commercial agreement with SpaceX which includes a production order worth £15.8m and warrants that could be exercised for up to 10% of existing share capital. Filtronic announced its first orders from SpaceX in January 2023, although the customer was unnamed at that point. Since then, SpaceX has placed orders totalling $43m (including yesterday’s order) for products to support the build out of its Starlink low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellat
Edison
24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: FTC AGL SRT SOU G4M AOM SUP
Hybridan
CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
SRT Marine Systems has reported a change of year end from 12-months to March 2024 to 15-months to June 2024, with revenue forecasts extended by three months for both new year ends, and an encouraging operational update. The company is concerned that government related paperwork on two existing CG projects (SEA and ME) may not be completed in time for a March invoice and risks falling into the next quarter. In one jurisdiction where there a number of new project prospects, the company must meet s
Companies: SRT Marine Systems plc
Filtronic’s recent investment and focus on high-performance radio frequency (RF) design and manufacturing is starting to pay off, with recent new customer wins, development contracts and volume production orders boosting the order backlog. H124 results do not reflect this recent success: revenue was essentially flat and investment in sales and engineering reduced EBITDA. However, the strong backlog gives management confidence that revenue and profit will exceed consensus estimates for FY24 and F
Companies: PHC SRT DCTA
Calnex has released a pre-close trading update for the year to March 2024, indicating that revenue would be £16.3m, c£0.7m below our forecast, partly due to the timing of orders at the end of the period. Group trading has been impacted by the well-documented, continuing challenges in the Telecoms sector which have seen delayed project timings leading to corresponding delays in customer spending. Administrative costs are being controlled and are focussed on maintaining R&D. Calnex remains confide
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
Filtronic has reported results in-line with management expectations for H1/24, and now expects to perform ahead of our forecasts for FY24E and FY25E in terms of revenue and profit. We are raising our revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E by 14.6% and 6.2% respectively, and our EBITDA forecasts by 85.2% and 28.0% respectively. The increase in expectation is driven by a strong recent acceleration in order flow, including a £7.8m order announced today. In this report we present a detailed review of
6th February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje
Companies: ROQ NCYT ALU FTC ECK ORCP BIOM PYC SPR REAT
FY23 revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations. The major news was that BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff. At the end of the decade the EBITDA could reach £11bn with the massive restructuring announced and capex could return to €3.5bn per year. EBITDA less capex could be multiplied by 2.5 and therefore also the dividend. This could value BT at 385 pence at that time. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Companies: BT Group plc
A decent Q1 performance despite the expected headwinds from cost-of-living pressure and cost inflation. The group is clearly a fairly safe long-term buy and hold. BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff by the end of the decade. In parallel it is further accelerating its FTTP deployment with high capex. But at the end of this phase EBITDA-capex could be multiplied by 2.5. Speculation could also again reignite as Drahi’s empire (owning 24.5% of BT) is being shaken by corruption cases.
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