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06 Oct 2021
First Take: Imperial Brands - On track for the FY

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First Take: Imperial Brands - On track for the FY
Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON) | 3,113 -1774.4 (-1.8%) | Mkt Cap: 25,199m
- Published:
06 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
No surprises, limited impact on consensus
The FY trading update is reassuring, with the company on track to meet full year guidance. Group net revenue is expected to grow by c. 1% on an organic basis, with continued strong pricing in tobacco products. The new focus on the 5 priority markets is beginning to stabilise the market share losses here to nearly neutral by the end of the financial year. At the group level, Imperial Brands is expected to grow market share by 20bps. Adjusted operating profit is expected to grow low-mid single digits in constant currency. We do not expect any significant change to consensus numbers, but sentiment may improve as the new strategy begins to deliver results.
With regards to its NGP strategy, market trials are underway for its heated tobacco product, Pulze, in Czech Republic and Greece. In the US, the company has been trialling an improved marketing plan for blu. Feedback from both of these initiatives will be shared in 2022.
Cash generation has been in-line with management expectations. We continue to think buybacks are likely to be announced sooner rather than later, given the share price performance and progress towards 2x net debt/EBITDA.
The FY results will be released on 16th November.