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19 Nov 2020
Imperial Brands : An outsider’s perspective - Buy

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Imperial Brands : An outsider’s perspective - Buy
Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON) | 3,131 0 0.0% | Mkt Cap: 25,314m
- Published:
19 Nov 2020 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
6 -
Comments from the new CEO, an outsider, indicate that the problems at Imperial stem more from organisational inefficiencies than a chronic lack of investment in the business. The CEO believes there is good data available across the group, but it has not been properly leveraged to the fullest extent possible; in his presentation he stressed “new ways of thinking” are needed.
Improving focus was another area the CEO touched on several times in his presentation. This applies to both Tobacco (where the top 5 markets are now reporting to him on a monthly basis) and NGPs, where he believes the strategy around new product rollouts has been too lax. Ahead of the new NGP strategy announcement, we trim our NGP forecasts to reflect a more conservative rollout profile; this will probably be revised in due course.
Despite the adverse product and market mix that weighed on margins in FY20, there were several encouraging datapoints in the year just gone. The volume share gains in Tobacco (+50bps at group level) reflect the strength of the brand portfolio. Pricing in the Tobacco business was also resilient across the year, in spite of COVID, with +6.7% in H1 and +6.8% in H2. In several markets, the blu brand’s market share is flattening out after months of share erosion.
In the context of a c.6x FY21E PE, the magnitude of our EPS downgrade is basically irrelevant to the investment case. About half of the cut is due to technical factors, with the balance coming from temporary profit headwinds; we are still in the consensus range, albeit now at the lower end instead of the upper end. Imperial could conceivably double its share price through multiple expansion (and modest upgrades) if management can restore confidence. We like what we have heard so far from the new CEO, and await the appointment of a new CFO. Portfolio rationalisation is another lever for value creation, in addition to the organic improvements. We leave our 2,700p TP unchanged and reiterate the Buy recommendation ahead of the upcoming CMD.