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20 May 2020
Imperial Brands : Clearing the path - Buy

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Imperial Brands : Clearing the path - Buy
Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON) | 3,181 -286.3 (-0.3%) | Mkt Cap: 25,750m
- Published:
20 May 2020 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
7 -
The dividend has been (partly) sacrificed to accelerate debt reduction. This may upset some income-driven investors, but longer term it should provide Imperial with more flexibility to invest, buy back shares and/or issue special dividends. An FY21E dividend yield of 9.0% is still attractive post the cut, and the net debt/EBITDA target of 2.0-2.5x is reassuring. Importantly, these actions, coming ahead of the new CEO’s arrival, signal a new sense of urgency at the Board and clear the path for Bomhard to consider a wider range of plans.
The most pressing actions for the new CEO to take, in our view, are the following: 1) improve investor confidence in the guidance; 2) continue to streamline the asset base; 3) clarify targets for NGP and Tobacco; and 4) clarify the priorities for cash longer-term. These are well-known concerns; they have been communicated by shareholders and analysts to the company in the past, but the Board was slow to react. We hope now that there is a new Chairman and a new CEO, these concerns will be given the proper level of attention.
There are more assets the company could (and should) sell. We applaud the sale of premium cigars and US OTP, but we believe there is more value waiting to be unlocked in various corners of the business.
Investors are worried about Imperial’s competitiveness in the NGP arena, and the £95m impairment in H1 may fuel these fears. We are less concerned with the technology, which we see as comparable to peers, than we are about the strategy and execution. Priorities for this business, in our view, should be speed, profitability (which may necessitate some hard decisions), and focus.
Operationally, Tobacco should fare relatively well during the crisis. Indeed, volumes -0.5% and price +6.7% in H1 is very solid; however, product and geographic mix was -5.3% and down-trading seems likely to continue.