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  • 20 Feb 23
Backed by summer hopes

TUI delivered a consensus-beating top-line but a higher-than-expected underlying EBIT loss in the year-end quarter. The market nonetheless reacted positively thanks to the buoyant up-to-date booking trends despite the inflationary concerns. We may need to cut our estimates as the recovery seems less rapid than had been expected.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 14 Dec 22
Discreet mid-term forecast and planned recap despite surprising FY22

Despite the consensus-breaking FY22 results and encouraging FY23 outlook, TUI’s mid-term ambitions look prudent compared to the market expectations. The share reaction was further negatively impacted by the dilution effect from the €1.6-1.8bn rights issue plan, which was set to support the exposure reduction to the German state rescue measures. We expect a decrease in the consensus and our target price.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 14 Dec 22
A recap planned to support the WSF repayment agreement

TUI has reached agreement with the German WSF to fully repay the pandemic-related stabilization measures with a €479m nominal value of c.€730m and the price could increase to as much as €957m, subject to market conditions. A rights issue of €1.6-1.8bn (c.50-60% of TUI’s current market cap) is planned for early 2023 to support the WSF repayment, following the implementation of a capital reduction. The recap will also be used to partially redeem the remaining KfW credit lines of €2.1bn.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 10 Aug 22
Uncertainties cloud the summer trading outcome

Despite a promising summer outlook, TUI’s trading update did not convince the market due to a high level of uncertainties related to airport chaos, geopolitics and inflation, etc. The financial guidance remains vague for the same reason and its balance sheet still needs meaningful strengthening. We expect a downgrade in the FY22 consensus but no major changes to our current estimates.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 12 May 22
Summer is finally here (soon)

The market cheered TUI’s consensus-beating H1 results, improving the net debt position and accompanied by upbeat FY guidance. The favourable market conditions and the group’s strong pricing power should support sparkling summer trading and allow for a further strengthening of the balance sheet, although the only-limited fuel hedging could neutralize part of this expected vitality.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 11 May 22
FTSE 100 up again with TUI expecting to climb back and ITV reporting better advertising numbers
ftse-100-up-again-with-tui-expecting-to-climb-back-and-itv-reporting-better-advertising-numbers
  • 08 Feb 22
Mixed summer outlook

TUI’s Q1 results missed the consensus again while its liquidity and net debt positions remained comfortable. The current trading of summer bookings is mixed as the average prices remain buoyant but the booking volumes have slowed. Regardless, the target of summer bookings volume is maintained, due to later booking profiles and rising consumer confidence. The group’s plan to repay part of the state aid and to reach 90% of its permanent cost reduction by FY22 should be considered as positive.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 08 Dec 21
Wait and...continue to wait

TUI’s FY21 results came in below consensus and no meaningful short-term catalysts were seen. The group may have to trim further its winter schedule due to the new Omicron variant, which has already weighed on recent bookings. The summer 2022 bookings seem encouraging but visibility remains limited in effect.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 06 Oct 21
Taps investors for €1.1bn

TUI launched a €1.1bn share placing to reduce financial interest expenses and improve its debt profile. The recapitalisation is necessary, which should not surprise the market, and will supportively strengthen TUI’s vulnerable balance sheet. Due to a larger-than-expected dilution effect, we will have a lower target price after integrating this capital increase.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 12 Aug 21
Summer hopes are still for sale

TUI’s Q3 results update was encouraging, due to a meaningful business restoration, improved cash generation and promising summer outlook, despite a narrowed Q4 capacity schedule. However, a plan of the critical balance sheet repairment is still missing.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 12 May 21
Narrowed FY revenue forecast despite summer hopes

TUI’s H1 results release frustrated the market today, due to its downward-adjusted FY revenue guidance and mediocre cash burn rate, despite the prospect of a bright summer recovery. Consensus might go down.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 12 May 21
Market Report: UK economy fell 1.5% in first quarter despite lockdowns, but March bloomed 2.1%
market-report-uk-economy-fell-1-5-in-first-quarter-despite-lockdowns-but-march-bloomed-2-1-
  • 09 Feb 21
Not convinced by TUI’s sparkling summer hopes

TUI delivered a weak Q1 as expected, with an unexpectedly improved cash burn rate, but the latter should be considered as a one-off item since no improvement has been included in the guidance. The group’s current liquidity position should be adequate at least until the summer, while its heavy leverage is a concern instead. It continues betting on a summer recovery, whereas we still consider the near-term market conditions as highly uncertain.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 10 Dec 20
Enough cash to burn before the hopefully rosy summer arrives

TUI’s FY20 results disappointed the market, with a further trimmed business assumption for FY21. It doesn’t expect a return to profitable growth until FY22.

Companies: TUI AG

AlphaValue
  • 03 Dec 20
TUI reaches an additional financing package of €1.8bn

The additional financing package would allow TUI to last until next summer, when a constructive business resumption is expected to be seen.

Companies: TUIN TUI TUI1 TUIFF TUI1

AlphaValue

TUI AG

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Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TUI AG. We currently have 378 research reports from 7 professional analysts.

Latest News/RNS

(more news)
Date Source Announcement
18Mar24 16:40 RNS Deutsche Bank AG FF - Post-stabilisation Notice
28Feb24 11:31 RNS Deutsche Bank AG FF - Pre-stabilisation Notice
18May22 17:30 RNS FTSE Russell - TUI AG
10May21 16:04 EQS TUI AG: Release according to Article 40, Section 1 of the WpHG [the German Securities Trading Act] with the objective of Europe-wide distribution
30Apr21 17:11 EQS TUI AG: Director Declaration
30Apr21 16:50 EQS TUI AG: Preliminary announcement of the publication of financial reports according to Articles 114, 115, 117 of the WpHG [the German Securities Act]
22Apr21 15:18 EQS TUI AG: Release according to Article 40, Section 1 of the WpHG [the German Securities Trading Act] with the objective of Europe-wide distribution
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TUI Group is a British-German leisure, travel and tourism company. The company trades under the ticker Lon:TUI