SP Angel Morning View: Gold pushes higher as rate cut optimism resurfaces as labour market cools

Ultimate Products - Q3 trading update: tougher short-term, better longer-term

Ultimate Products’ Q3 trading update reveals that tougher short-term trading trends are now likely to persist into Q4, but the longer-term trends are now more positive due to growing order visibility from its bigger customers. We are downgrading our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 22% to 12.5p from 16.0p for FY24E, by 15.3% to 14.8p from 17.4p in FY25E and by 12.6% to 16.6p from 19.0p for FY26E. We reduce our target price to 185p (was 210p) to reflect the new forecasts. Shorter-term issues should r

Morning Note – 10 May 2024

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Near term disruption, but growth case remains strong

Ultimate Products announces today that sales revenue fell by 7% in its FY2024 third quarter and is anticipated to remain in negative territory in Q4. As a result, the company believes that EBITDA will now be in the range of £17.5m to £18.5m compared with a current market consensus figure of £21.5m. Given the 17% cut in current year EBITDA expectations it seems prudent to adjust our fair value / share figure by a similar amount. So, we reduce it by 20% from 250p to 200p. However, current sales s

Eden Research - Fruitful year

Eden Research has reported its interim results for the 12 months to December 2023. The company generated revenues of £3.2m, slightly ahead of the January trading updated expectation of £3.1m and c15% ahead of our forecast. We note the company generated strong gross profits and an adjusted EBITA ahead of our forecast, both of which we believe were supported by the first commercial sale of Ecovelex. The company closed FY23 with cash slightly below our forecast, which we believe was impacted by the

Norcros (NXR LN) - Capital Markets Day – taking the next step

Norcros recently hosted a Capital Markets Day (CMD) signalling a change in how the business communicates with the market. In recent history it has focused on growing its share of the highly fragmented bathroom and kitchen product markets organically and through acquisition. This has resulted in a portfolio of businesses with varying degrees of capital intensity and profitability but created a Group of scale (c. £450m revenue) with strong positions in its end markets. Last week’s CMD was evidence

PROGRESSIVE: SDI Group: H1 24 – well-placed for the post-Covid normal

SDI has indicated that a slowdown in the life science / biotech market, and some resultant destocking, is likely to impact its expected FY24 revenue, leading the group to moderate current year guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. SDI notes that FY24 represents a short-term phenomenon, due to the over-ordering of the past three years caused by inflated Covid demand. However, we remain confident for the long term, given the strength of SDI’s ‘buy and build’ business model, with a number

Judges Scientific+ (JDG, House Stock at 8,900p) - HY; strong order book, FY23F unchanged

Invinity Energy Systems; Tansformative Strategic Investment

Invinity Energy Systems (IES LN) develops Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFBs) for utility-scale grid storage. The Group’s next-generation Mistral VFB technology, jointly developed with Gamesa Electric, launches in H2 2024 to provide grid-scale longer-duration energy storage (LDES) as renewable generation increases globally. To capture this opportunity, the Group has today announced that it has raised £56.0m through a placing at 23p per share. It is now undertaking an Open Offer to raise up to £6.6m a

Zeus Industrials Round-Up - 9 May 2024

Economic and industrial data has started the second quarter on slightly weaker grounds than Q1 as Manufacturing PMI in the UK, Eurozone and US all reported April indexes below March levels. Cracks seem to be appearing as recent drops in new orders and rising input costs are quickly dampening confidence. Inflation did, however, fall MoM across the board with the exception of the US, where volatile energy prices caused a modest MoM increase in the inflation rate.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 11 May 2023

ATOME Energy - Project Funding Optionality

We have undertaken a scenario analysis of project funding options for ATOME. Our new backstop valuation based on topco equity funding at the level of the last equity raise gives protection at 64p. A more efficient solution of project sales at FID gives 200p but an even more efficient farm down model gives 252p. Financial close on Villeta this year could be a catalyst for these higher valuations. All options offer strong value at today’s share price and show that ATOME has optionality in financin

Invinity Energy Systems - Funded to Cash Generation and More

Invinity’s major equity fundraising is targeting a minimum of £50m with half already committed by the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB). A second strategic investment of £3m has been committed by Korean Investment Partners.  The raise will see Invinity to net cash generation, with £30m of the raise supporting the company’s scale up ahead of this year’s launch of the next generation Mistral flow battery. The raise will boost the balance sheet, reducing counterparty risk and unlocking sales and bigger

Invinity Energy Systems - Funded to Cash Generation and More

Re-issued to correct for typographical errors.Invinity’s major equity fundraising is targeting a minimum of £56m with £25m already committed by the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB). A second strategic investment of £3m has been committed by Korean Investment Partners.  The raise will see Invinity to net cash generation, with over £30m of the raise supporting the company’s scale up ahead of this year’s launch of the next generation Mistral flow battery. The raise will boost the balance sheet, reduci