Aberdeen Asian Income Fund (AAIF) is managed by Aberdeen Standard Investments Asia (ASI Asia), aiming to provide reliable quarterly income and long-term capital growth. Its investment process identifies high-quality and attractively valued stocks that can be held for the long term. Manager Yoojeong Oh says that Asia offers attractive growth opportunities and dividend prospects, and ‘the number of dividend-paying stocks is on the rise’. She highlights the deep resources of the ASI Asia investment team, suggesting its presence on the ground and an extensive number of company meetings provides a strong foundation for successful bottom-up stock selection. While AAIF does not have a formal benchmark, its NAV has outperformed the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan index and the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan High Dividend Yield index over the long term.
Companies: Aberdeen Asian Income Fund
Aberdeen Asian Income Fund (AAIF) aims to generate an above-average level of income and long-term capital growth, even in challenging times, from a diversified portfolio of Asia Pacific equities. Data from the fund’s manager Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI) Asia highlight the importance of income in the region; since 2000, c 50% of share price total returns have been from reinvested dividends and corporates are supportive of dividend growth. AAIF has generated double-digit NAV and share price total returns over the last decade and currently offers a 4.4% dividend yield. The dividend is well covered and the fund has c 0.9x the FY18 annual distribution in revenue reserves.
Today, we introduce our investment trust ratings. According to the quantitative screens we have selected in an attempt to highlight the best performers in the closed-ended universe, the trusts discussed here have been the best in their classes over the last five years. We have selected trusts using two different sets of criteria, aiming to identify the top performers for capital growth and for achieving a high and growing income. There are many rating systems for open-ended funds, but no quantitative-based system for investment trusts that is available to the average investor. While we cannot identify trusts which will perform well in the future – past outperformance is no guide to future out-performance – we hope these ratings will highlight the outstanding performers in the closed-ended universe and those managers who have best used the advantages of investment trusts to generate alpha. We are trying to reward consistent and long-term outperformance, and so we have decided to look over a five-year period. All data is as of the end of December 2018, sourced from Morningstar and JPMorgan Cazenove. We have looked at NAV total return performance and discount value has not been considered: the aim is to identify those trusts which have performed the best rather than highlight bargains.
Companies: IPU FAS ATR JEO FEV FGT THRG SEC PAC BRSC IAT HNE MIGO TRY JMG DIVI SLS BGS SDP JETI SOI BCI MRC TIGT EDIN JAGI BEE SDV BRIG AAIF HFEL SCF SIGT BRFI IVPG CTY HINT JCH NAIT
Aberdeen Asian Income Fund (AAIF) aims to provide its investors with an attractive income, plus the potential for capital growth, by investing across the Asia Pacific region. The fund’s target c 4.5% yield is fully funded from portfolio income. AAIF’s investment process is bottom-up, with a strong focus on finding quality companies at attractive valuations. The managers meet all the companies they hold at least twice a year, and place great emphasis on understanding each company’s balance sheet and growth drivers to ensure everything in the c 40–70 stock portfolio is worthy of its place. AAIF’s quality and income focus means it has a natural bias to some more defensive areas, which could stand it in good stead in the current bout of market volatility. Its managers note that valuations in Asia are low in relation to Europe, North America and their own historical averages, and some individual stocks are very inexpensive versus history.
It is incredibly difficult to recognise entry points for markets or stocks: there is always a good reason for something to seem cheap but at the same time, a plausible cause for it to get cheaper. With threats of a trade war echoing in our ears and investors smarting from an unexpectedly tough first quarter, media attention has focused on the potential ‘buying opportunity’ in Asian equities, and against that backdrop we consider the outlook. As we show in the graph below, global stocks with the highest exposure to China have significantly underperformed since the start of March. Last month Trump announced tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium and followed it up with wider tariffs in response to claimed Chinese intellectual property theft. After China announced its own tariffs in response, senior members of the Trump administration suggested the US might walk back their threats: commerce secretary Wilbur Ross said he expected the spat to end in negotiations, and newly-appointed director of the national economic council Larry Kudlow said that agreement may come before the tariffs are due to come into force in May. A weakening of the US position and an invitation to the negotiating table would be entirely in keeping with the past behaviour of the Trump administration. In January Trump was threatening to nuke North Korea on Twitter, yet now he is preparing to sit down and talk to its leader. It is a strategy he has followed in numerous areas: throw around threats, talk tough, and then negotiate back to a more reasonable mid-ground. However, there’s no guarantee that this time he won’t stick to his guns, and until a clear outcome emerges – volatility is likely to remain extreme.
Companies: SOI SDP AAIF IAT FCSS SST
Aberdeen Asian Income Fund (AAIF) is an income producing trust that offers a yield of 4.3% via a portfolio of high quality, cash generative Asian companies, managed by a highly experienced team led by regional superstar Hugh Young. The trust has delivered solid dividend growth since launch and generally positive returns over most periods, tending to perform on a relative basis better during weaker phases of the market. Thanks to this relative underperformance versus the growth fund dominated AIC Asian ex Japan sector, the trust has seen its shares move out to a double-digit discount in recent years. The trust is backed up by solid revenue reserves and pays a covered dividend. The trust offers an alternative option to ‘traditional’ equity income being exposed to Asian companies,where earnings have been on the rise and have a number of different risks and opportunities compared to developed market equities. The trust has traded on a relatively wide discount since 2015, and currently stands at 9.5%. The board’s active programme of share buybacks – which has seen more than 9m shares bought back since the start of 2016 – has prevented the discount slipping out further than its current level.
We have for some time argued that traditional equity income funds are too heavily dependent on a narrow range of stocks, and that the stocks themselves are perhaps looking overstretched in terms of the dividends they pay compared to their underlying earnings. In November last year we published research showing that 25.1% of the capital in the AIC UK Equity Income sector is invested in just ten stocks, and across those companies the average dividend cover is 1.17x. We found that open-ended funds are even more heavily concentrated, with just under 30% of assets invested in ten stocks, among which the average dividend cover is just 1.04%. The mood amongst investors seems to be changing as awareness of this concentration grows, not least because of articles like this one in the Times warning of a ‘squeeze’ ahead for investors and, where once UK Equity Income was regularly the top selling Investment Association sector, outflows have been building steadily for some months. In fact the IA UK Equity Income sector saw bigger retail outflows in January this year than any other bar the Specialist sector. Even after recent outflows, however, the sector remains one of the largest overall with assets of more than £62bn under management – accounting for roughly ten percent of all assets invested in open-ended funds. Among investment trusts, assets amounting to £10bn are held in UK Equity Income trusts. Income still commands a strong pull, then, and within the Investment Trust sector, the practise of boosting income by paying out a proportion of capital profits has become increasingly common as a means to attract new investors. The appeal of this practice from a fund manager’s point of view is obvious. Many investors clamour for income, so introducing a yield can encourage greater demand for shares. International Biotechnology Trust (IBT), which we cover in detail here, announced plans in September 2016 to convert some of the capital it generates into income, aiming for a yield of 4%. As the chart below shows, the discount has come in sharply since it did so, moving to a premium earlier this year having previously rarely traded inside a double figure discount for a large proportion of its lifetime. Invesco Perpetual UK Smaller Companies (IPU) saw a similar re-rating when the board announced plans to pay a significantly enhanced dividend partly funded by the capital account in September 2016. Like IBT, the trust, which yields 3.5%, has seen its discount tighten up sharply, moving in from a consistently wide double-digit discount to trade in single figures since the enhanced dividend was introduced. Looking at these share price movements, we thought it might be interesting to examine the broader investment trust sector and see whether a correlation exists between discount and yield.
Companies: IVPU IBT MVI MUT DIG EDIN PLI BEE BRWM IVI SCF AAIF PLI
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Aberdeen Asian Income Fund.
We currently have 26 research reports from 4
FY20A results largely reflect a period prior to the Covid-19 lockdown, yet show Duke entering a more challenging FY21E with momentum. Yesterday's trading update demonstrated another notable rise in quarterly cash receipts for Q2/21, as royalty partner trading continues to improve. As some partners' forbearance measures will expire this month, Q3/21 receipts should continue this upwardly momentum. This opens the door to a return to cash dividends at some future point. Today, Duke also confirms it is now seeking new royalty partners, alongside follow-ons.
Companies: Duke Royalty
With the sale of the Singaporean operations for £1.6bn, the new CEO, Amanda Blanc, shows her intention to focus rapidly on its preferred markets (the UK, Ireland and Canada). The next candidate for sale is the French unit. This transaction is more complicated than the previous one, with the necessity to obtain the agreement of Afer, its key partner in France. With potential proceeds of £2.9bn, Aviva could reduce its debts significantly and allocate more capital to the UK bulk annuity business.
Companies: Aviva Plc
Oil posted its first back-to-back weekly loss since April's rout with the end of the summer driving season and concern about OPEC's production compliance weighing on prices.
Futures in New York edged up on Friday, but prices fell 6.1% this week coinciding with a retreat in U.S. equities. Traders are also examining data indicating the United Arab Emirates since July has been regularly exceeding its quota under a deal between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.
The uncertainty over how much supply OPEC+ is returning to the market adds another wrench in the recovery for oil prices still reeling from the pandemic-driven blow to consumption. While U.S. supplies had grown tighter in past months and producers were expected to restrain production amid a weak financial backdrop, stockpiles rose again last week for the first time since mid-July.
Companies: XOM HES KOS JSE 88E ADV CAD CHAR ECHO ENOG EME I3E PMG RBD SQZ SOU TLW VGAS WTE PHAR
What’s new: CLIG results have beaten Zeus expectations at revenue, EPS and DPS. On 14 July CLIG provided an update which revealed $338m of net inflows (6% of opening FUM), outperformance of the Emerging Market and Developed strategies (98% of FuM) and 25% rise in FuM in 4Q to $5.5bn and an indication that the final dividend would be not less than last year. In our opinion, key features of CLIG’s full year results include:
4.4% rise in revenue to £33.3m (Zeus forecast: £32.0m);
6.1% fall in adj PBT to £10.7m (Zeus forecast: £10.3m), excluding gains/losses on seed investment 9.4% rise to £11.6m (FY19: £10.6m);
3.2% rise in adj EPS to 35.3p (Zeus forecast 32.5p);
11.1% rise in final DPS to 20.0p (Zeus forecast: 18p) with the total DPS of 30p (Zeus forecast: 28p) is 11.1% above the prior year excluding special DPS.
Net cash of £14.6m (Zeus forecast: £10.0m)
The acquisition of KMI is expected to complete on 1 October 2020.
Companies: City of London Investment Group Plc
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact globally in many areas. While primarily a health issue, it has had wide-ranging implications for stock markets, which have now rallied after the plunge in share prices in mid-March when the full severity of the emerging pandemic became more widely appreciated. Nonetheless, the FTSE 100 Index remains almost 20% off its late February 2020 figure.
Companies: AVO ARBB ARIX CLIG DNL GDR ICGT NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI STX SCE TRX SHED VTA YEW
S4 Capital had an extraordinary week with strong interims and an impressive CMD accompanied by a further merger and topped off with winning its third Whopper. Interims were ahead of our expectations and we were particularly encouraged by LFL Gross Profit growth of +18% in July. The group announced the merger with Dare.Win, an award-winning digital creative agency which extends the geographical presence of MediaMonks to France. BMW and MINI consolidated its Pan-European account into a team led by MediaMonks, which is the third whopper account for S4 Capital, and notable in our view for being won in a pitch, rather than by land & expand, and being an automotive rather than technology client. The group held a three day CMD and our summary would be i) Day One demonstrated the compelling strategic logic and strict financial discipline underpinning the group ii) Day Two illustrated the already formidable partner/client list of S4 Capital, including Adobe, Amazon, Google and CAA and iii) Day Three highlighted the chemistry between the individual agencies brought together to form S4 Capital and the outstanding work that they produce. To reflect BMW and Dare.Win we raise our FY21 EPS forecast by +8% to 10.8p (was 10.0p) and continue to view 15p as a realistic target with further whoppers in prospect and the balance of the recent equity raise to deploy. On a 30x multiple, we raise our target price to 450p (was 375p) and retain our Buy recommendation.
Companies: S4 Capital Plc
Frontier IP has announced it has invested £320k in a £720k convertible loan financing of Nandi Proteins. Nandi Proteins is developing functional proteins for food ingredients aimed at reducing levels of fat, additives and gluten in processed foods addressing important social, health and environmental concerns about processed food. Frontier IP holds a 20.1% equity stake in Nandi Proteins; the last disclosed value of the holding was back in July 2017 at approx. £2.9m. Connected in part to the announcement today, we have used the opportunity to refresh our cash flow forecasts to reflect the net £2.1m proceeds of the July 2020 fundraise, the planned deployment of proceeds into bridge financing and refreshed our Sum-of-the-Parts valuation analysis to reflect the excellent portfolio progress made in FY’20. We anticipate a 50% increase in the unrealised profit on the revaluation of investments in FY’20e to £5.82m (vs. £3.0m prior estimate; £3.85m in FY’19). Applying the peer group multiple of 1.6x on Yr1 Book value of late-stage assets and incorporating the £2.1m proceeds and dilution associated with the July placing, implies an intrinsic value of 82p/share, 27% above the current share.
Companies: Frontier IP Group Plc
We believe now is an interesting time to invest in Northgate, with a new executive board and a capable management team in place who have already delivered progress on an ongoing turnaround as we await a full strategic review. The group now has a clear and well communicated capital allocation strategy in place and improved earnings quality, in our view. We believe that the growth opportunity in the UK, the value of the Spanish business and the progress made to date with the turnaround are not being reflected in the share price, which is currently 15.9% below book value (414p per share in FY19A rising to 468p in FY22E). We use a variety of valuation methods including P/B, SOTP, DDM and DCF modelling and arrive at an average implied share price of 450p, 29.0% above the current share price.
Companies: Redde Northgate Plc
Following a solid H120, HgCapital Trust (HGT) announced several portfolio transactions representing a considerable uplift to the carrying value at end March 2020 and translating into a c 12.0% ytd NAV total return (TR) to end August. On completion of these deals, HGT’s cash resources will improve significantly to £314m from £123m in early July, while its unfunded commitments will decline to £814m. Consequently, HGT’s commitment coverage ratio will improve markedly to c 39% vs 13% in early July.
Companies: Hgcapital Trust
Artemis Alpha Trust (ATS LN) has undergone a radical transformation over the past two years following a comprehensive strategic review. In April 2018, the trust held around 90 stocks with approximately 25% of NAV held in unquoted positions. Following the implementation of the review, Kartik Kumar (who has been with Artemis since 2012) was appointed lead manager alongside John Dodd remaining in place with an overseeing role. Kartik has since significantly reduced the number of stocks to a much more concentrated high conviction portfolio of just 36 stocks, and has significantly reduced the unquoted exposure to only 7%. This shift in focus has at the same time improved portfolio liquidity by moving up the market capitalisation scale.
Companies: Artemis Alpha Trust
L&G reported an operating profit from continuing divisions (excluding Mature Savings and General Insurance businesses) of £1,128m, -2.2% yoy. The COVID-19-related cost was £129m. LGR posted a growing operating profit to £721m. Net profit amounted to £290m vs. £874m a year before, being affected by the reduced discount rate used to calculate LGI reserves. The Solvency II ratio stood at 173%. The Board recommended an interim dividend of 4.93p/share, stable relative to H1 19.
Companies: Legal & General Group Plc
Avation is a lessor of commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. In relation to the ongoing administration process of Virgin Australia, Avation has this morning announced that following the successful placing of five of the original thirteen aircraft that were on lease to the airline (two Fokker 100s plus three ATR 72-500s, with the latter having gone to two new customers), the remaining eight aircraft will be returned to Avation, being made up of three ATR 72-500s and five ATR 72-600s. Additionally, subject to approval at a creditors' meeting scheduled for 4 September 2020, the expected return to unsecured creditors is now anticipated at between 9-13% being paid prior to 30 June 2021.
Companies: Avation Plc
Deltic Energy is entering an exciting phase in its development based on its fully funded joint-venture projects with Shell. Preparations are now underway for an exploration well to test the Pensacola Zechstein prospect in the SNS (Southern North Sea). Deltic has indicated that it expects the current contingent well commitment to become firm on schedule by December 1, 2020. Drilling, according to Deltic, should follow in H2 2021. We see scope for positive news flow over the next few months, not least from the evaluation of Shell’s recently obtained processed 3-D seismic over Pensacola. Following Pensacola, the Selene prospect is scheduled to be drilled in mid-2022. The recent 32nd Round UKCS licence awards greatly expands Deltic’s exploration potential in the CNS and particularly the SNS Carboniferous fairway. Here some highly prospective acreage has been obtained.
Companies: Deltic Energy Plc
Belvoir’s H1 results evidence both strategic progress and profits growth. Given the challenges presented by COVID-19, this bodes very well for the group’s long-term growth potential. H1 adj. EPS grew +16%, the acquisition of Lovelle contributed well and in July the group entered into a strategic alliance with The Nottingham Building Society. Cash flow remained strong and the progressive dividend policy has been reinstated, with a 3.4p interim declared plus an additional 2p, as partial compensation for the missed 2019 final. With the resilience of lettings and the current record activity levels in sales and new mortgages the Board is optimistic that full-year results will hit its pre-COVID expectations and we make no changes to our PBT/EPS forecasts. Our target price of 233p (48% upside) assumes a 10% discount to the small/mid cap market. Given the above average performance in H1 and continued evidence that the long-term growth strategy is yielding value we see good upside to this target over time.
Companies: Belvoir Group Plc
S4 Capital has reported interim results that are ahead of our expectations and indicates an acceleration in the pace of recovery in Q3. LFL Gross Profit rose +12.2% in H1, with Q1 +18.8% and Q2 +6.5%. Encouragingly, after the trough of +3% in April, recovery accelerated to +5% in May, +11% in June and July was an impressive +18% ahead. PBT and EPS were both slightly better than our forecasts, while the group delivered a particularly impressive cash performance leaving it with net cash in June even before the £113m July placing. While we maintain our FY20 LFL Gross Profit growth forecast of +14% (Q3 +12%, Q4 +18%), the strong July result makes this look conservative. Further, the group awaits the outcome of two 'whopper' pitches each worth $20m+ with one due 'very shortly' and it can now see the pathway to 20 whoppers. S4 Capital is in a growth sweetspot and has already started to deploy the funds from the July placing to build capability in eCommerce (Orca Pacific) and econometrics/media optimisation (Brightblue). There are a number of moving parts in our forecasts and overall we retain our EPS estimates of 7p for this year, rising to 10p in 2021. We believe landing the whoppers combined with further M&A as the group deploys its recent equity raise & increased debt facility could see EPS of 15p next year.