08 Sep 16
"Equity markets globally remain in 'wait and see' mode. The overnight American and Asian markets all closed with just fractional, albeit mixed, movements as the US central bank's Beige Book, which based anecdotal feedback on economic activity collected during July and August from a dozen district banks, was seen to chant the same old lacklustre message. It noted the economy continued to expand at a modest pace and that contributors expected growth at a 'moderate' pace in the coming months, coming in tandem with a Fed Reserve report noting on Wednesday that a tight labor market and rising wages were not generating substantial inflation pressure. 'Steady as she goes' might be one interpretation, but 'clear as mud' might be another for Chair Janet Yellen who is expected to make an informed policy decision at the looming Federal Open Market Committee Meeting scheduled for 20th and 21st September. Betting right now, perhaps not surprisingly, is that rates will remain unchanged while expected data releases between now and the year-end a still expected to suggest opportunity for at least a 25bp hike, even if hawks like Jeffrey Lacker continue to bang the drum for earlier, decisive action. In the Far East, China provided the main talking point following its release of monthly export data, its traditional engine for growth, that showed a slide of 2.8% in US$-terms on last year following a 4.4% decline in July; a dull outcome, but still sufficient to beat the consensus expectations, which the Wall Street Journal polled as a 4% contraction. The ASX was the only market keen enough to make a decisive move in the region, as the commodity-led index continued to adjust to the hit on the US$ following disappointing ISM data earlier in the week, although oil futures were seen to extend gains during early morning trade following a report from the American Petroleum Institute that detailed a steep weekly draw on crude stockpiles in the US, bucking expectations of a rise and pushing prices back closer to the US$50/bbl level. Europe is in focus for macro releases this morning, with the ECB interest rate decision anticipated, along with a press conference from Mario Draghi. PM, Theresa May, is also due to meet Council President, Donald Tusk, today in London while Chancellor, Phillip Hammond, is presenting to a House of Lords Committee. Earnings figures are due form Deltex Medical (DEMG.L), Genus (GNS.L), Mattioli Woods (MTW.L) and Tower Resources (TRP.L), along with a trading statement from Dixons Carphone (DC..L). The FTSE-100 is seen opening around 8 points up this morning in relatively light volume." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
23 Aug 16
"Following three weeks of rising crude oil prices, traders' hopes for an OPECnegotiated production freeze, appear to have given way to returning concerns of a supply glut as reports of Iraq preparing to ramp up production are splashed across the media, while militants calling an end to hostilities could also see Nigeria rapidly return its lost capacity to the international markets. Meanwhile ahead of Fed Chair, Janet Yellen's, annual speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Thursday, the US$ continued to weaken marginally versus the basket of major currencies. Against this background, the principal US indices continued their dull summer-long trend, with fractional movements only to close modestly mixed with energy stocks the main casualty permitting just the tech-heavy NASDAQ to put in a positive performance. This morning's trading in Asia was similar, as the Nikkei tracked back slightly on Yen strength, while the ASX was gently boosted again by gains in several of its key commodity plays; China's Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng finished quietly either side of unchanged. While London is unlikely to gain significant confidence from the overnight markets, equities are seen attempting to recover yesterday's losses with the FTSE-100 expected to open some 30 points up in early trading. Macroeconomic releases expected today include a UK Industrial Trends Survey from the CBI, the Eurozone's Composite PMI Index and, later this afternoon, the US PMI. Amongst corporates, earnings figures are due from Cape (CIU.L), Eurocell (ECEL.L), Hostelworld (HSW.L), Persimmon (PSN.L) and Rank Group (RNK.L).
16 Jun 16
"The FTSE-100 is seen opening quite sharply lower once again this morning (down around 65 points), as the markets tries to take all ramifications of a possible Brexit on board. Even the Fed's decision to leave short-term rates unchanged yesterday appears at least in part, to await the outcome of the June 23rd referendum as international markets try to gauge the potential shock to global activity. Beyond this, continuing sluggish US growth rates and its apparent inability to stimulate inflation, means that the central bank still lacks the confidence to raise the cost of borrowing, as a result of which early gains recorded across the principal indices turned back into modest losses during late trading. The US dollar fell to its lowest level since September 2014, mimicking the Euro which tumbled to its lowest since January 2013. By contrast, safe haven investors continued to drive the Yen higher after the BOJ's decision to stand still at its policy meeting, forcing Asian equities broadly down once again. Expect the Bank of England rate decision this morning along with MPC meeting minutes which will be followed by the Governor's Mansion House speech and may reflect on the Chancellor's suggested need to plan for an emergency Brexit budget. Retail sales figues are due from the US this afternoon, while various small and mid-cap corporates, like Poundland, WS Atkins, Darty, Mulberry, Premier Farnell, Purplebricks and Safestore are due to report.
Highly Prospective Gold and Copper in Nevada, USA
05 Aug 15
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