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|21/10/2016 13:07:13||London Stock Exchange||Disposal of Stromag business|
|18/10/2016 15:48:00||PR Newswire||New GKN Driveline electric drive module supports small car hybridization|
|26/07/2016 07:00:09||London Stock Exchange||Results for the period ended 30 June 2016|
|27/06/2016 16:57:00||PR Newswire||Demand for hybrid electric AWD helps GKN achieve eAxle production milestone|
|11/05/2016 16:16:00||PR Newswire||GKN Driveline starts production at state-of-the-art Mexico facility|
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Research reports on GKN PLC
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26 Oct 16
"Equities in London appear set to weaken during opening trade, with the FTSE-100 seen falling around 20 points. The trend is being set by US overnight markets, where all principal equity indices closed in the negative on the back of a number of generally unexciting earnings reports coming primarily from consumer-discretionary shares along with caution ahead of Apple’s important quarterly release. With markets watchers sensing the Fed’s willingness to shortly kick off an extended phase of rate hikes, blue chip earnings momentum must be seen to either match this or see heady valuation multiples pushed lower. Post close, the mood darkened somewhat further as Apple’s confirmed its third consecutive decline in revenue and profits, as the Company searches for a way to offset the global slowdown of its flagship iPhone. While Apple’s CEO pointed to improvements in the services businesses along with the strong reception to the latest iPhone release which appeared after the quarterly period close, the results nevertheless marked its first decline annual sales since 2001. As a result, technology stocks will likely remain under pressure, with NASDAQ futures already suggesting a weaker opening this afternoon. Asia tracked the US markets throughout this morning’s trade with all regional markets closing in the red, with the ASX being the principal casualty as economic data boosted the A$ resulting in quite sharp hits on commodity stocks and financials. Traders in London will likely reflect on the Governor of the Bank of England’s Parliamentary Testimony from yesterday, in which he assured financial markets they have no reason to expect a change in the Central Bank’s inflation-fighting mandate, while contrasting with the Mario Draghi’s defence of the ECB’s continuing easy-money policies. Today, the UK is due to release BBA banking statistics, while also awaiting results from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) and a trading update from Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L). Markets will also remain sensitive to further news coming from Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon’s office regarding the proposed UK deployment of tank and drones alongside 800 troops in Eastern Europe, as the first of several expected NATO initiatives to help counter fears about Russian movements on the borders. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Panmure Morning Note 23-09-2016
23 Sep 16
Last night, I witnessed the first signs of excitement from the company on electrification of cars even though most of the energy was coming from the Michigan-based SVP of Engineering & Technology (Dr. Ray Kuczera). If GKN was a US company it would have finished the analyst presentation with a tablethumping slogan, instead it ended with "electrification is good for GKN Driveline". While Aerospace has received the bulk of investment in recent years, Driveline still represents 44% and 42% of group sales and EBIT, respectively. The company’s best guess is that by 2030 the automotive world will be evenly split between ICE (Internal Combustion Engine), HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle) and BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle). While the presentation focused primarily on technology, the big challenge (and opportunity) for GKN Driveline will be in dealing with the changing structure of the automotive industry as new entrants (Tesla, Apple, Faraday, et al) look to supplant GKN’s traditional customers.
Panmure Morning Note 27-07-2016
27 Jul 16
The management is talking about sharper focus on productivity and cash but any benefits are likely to accrue to its pension funds: the pension deficit ballooned by over £0.5bn in six months to June 2016. When we turned Buyers back in July 2015, we were partly basing our recommendation on rising discount rates and a reduced pension deficit. However, this was a blip. Insanity still reigns in the monetary planet and worryingly, for GKN’s shareholders, the UK and US discount rates are still 2-3% above Europe and Japan. Each 1% reduction in the discount rate increases the total accounting deficit by over £800m. Of course, actuaries will decide the funding valuation but the direction of travel is clear. We estimate that the annual UK deficit payment will increase by £30m from next year, which will offset the £30m annualised cost saving announced today. We move our recommendation back to HOLD and cut our target price to 300p (375p).
Panmure Morning Note 18-02-16
18 Feb 16
We continue to believe that GKN is one of a handful of UK Industrial Engineering stocks that will produce EPS and dividend growth in 2016 and 2017, and should continue to outperform the sector. The focus on automotive and aerospace sectors may not have produced spectacular EPS growth in recent years but as 2015 results on Feb 23 will confirm GKN has avoided the boom & bust of natural resources world. More important, GKN's EPS growth has not come at the expense of consuming capital stock. Capital employed has nearly doubled since 2008 and peak returns on these investments is years away.
Panmure Research - Industrial Engineering 20-01-16
20 Jan 16
The consensus is expecting sector revenues and earnings to bounce back in 2017, a position that reminds us of President Bush's “Mission Accomplished” speech. Chinese data may well be opaque, but if it is correct then there are two significant trends: 1. China's gross capital formation is falling sharply and needs to decline another 25% from 2015 levels to fall in line with world average; 2. China is successfully reducing energy/metal intensity of its economy with consumption and tertiary industries (aerospace, medical, optics, renewables, comms) generating bulk of the growth. This shift in China's GDP mix has already caused havoc in commodity, currency and credit markets. As the rebalancing continues, we believe it will remain difficult to forecast EPS for UK engineering stocks still heavily exposed to the energy/commodity complex. Attention will shift to balance sheets. Smiths Group and Morgan Advanced Materials are particularly vulnerable to rising refinancing costs. Weir may have to cut dividend to remain within covenants. Bodycote and Vesuvius, which we move to a BUY, seem most likely to pay an unchanged dividend over the next three years without relying on capital markets. Only GKN and Hill & Smith, which we move to a BUY, can be confidently expected to grow EPS and the dividend over the next three years and maintain a strong balance sheet.
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UK Housebuilding Sector: Q3 2016 - “I am Steve McQueen”
11 Oct 16
Steve was street savvy, but he was not the smartest knife in the drawer, which makes his Delphic comment to Robert Vaughn all the more surprising. What Steve was saying is that “it’s not over yet”; that there is still a lot more to come (sadly for McQueen, who died in 1980 aged 50, it was a future that was not his). The same is true of Brexit and the collateral undulations that it has riven in the UK Housebuilding Sector. Immediately post-the-Brexit-vote, the UK Housebuilding Sector tanked 36% in value in two trading days (24 and 27 June with a weekend in between); and at one stage was off almost 40%.
Safe as houses
17 Oct 16
Telford Homes is in as strong a position as it has ever been in the 15 years since flotation. The company has a strong balance sheet, with an expanded equity base and significant headroom on its banking facilities, a large development pipeline and impressive forward sales position, and good levels of demand for its product and geography from a diverse group of buyers.
“Encouraging”Q1: Positive transformation momentum continues
24 Oct 16
“Encouraging” AGM/Q1 (July-Sept 2016) FY17 trading update should reassure further as it builds on the strong momentum of the recent FY16 results. Management’s self-help initiatives appear increasingly sure-footed. Reflecting the balance of this encouraging Q1 outcome and the highly uncertain backdrop (e.g. raw material prices/input cost inflation, currency movements, and other macro pressures), we think it prudent to keep our FY17 forecasts unchanged for now, not least as there are another 3 financial quarters to navigate. That said, so far so good. We therefore retain our BUY.
Short term blip provides an attractive entry point
04 Aug 16
Portmeirion Group has reported their interim results this morning which are inline with our revised estimates. The company has had a mixed first half year but should be well positioned to rectify underlying issues in South Korea and India and hit our full-year numbers. The recent profit warning should be viewed as a blip and should not overshadow the company’s fantastic track record.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.