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16 May 2024
FY24 results in-line, focus remains on draft determination

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FY24 results in-line, focus remains on draft determination
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
16 May 2024 -
Author:
Martin Thomas MT -
Pages:
12 -
FY24 results were in-line with consensus. FY25 revenue guidance for growth of 10% was ~2% above pre-results consensus, however operating costs were also guided to rise faster than inflation, suggesting little upside to consensus. Our own estimates rise substantially as we belatedly factor in developments since our initiation October 2023 as well as guidance.
Focus remains on 12 June OFWAT draft determination
The AMP8 business plan, submitted in October 2023, is being discussed with regulators and government ahead of OFWAT''s draft determination on the plan to be released next month. The principal focus of these discussions is on how best to deliver the statutory obligations to improve performance, with UU''s adaptive planning scenario, which achieves mandated aims with reduced spending levels, received well by stakeholders. The draft determination will also specify important drivers of plan economics including the cost of capital, the quality assessment of the plan, totex and ODIs.
With limited upside post model updates we retain our Neutral stance
We update our model to reflect inflation developments since our initiation in October 2023 as well as FY 2024 results/guidance, with the result that we are now 3% ahead of consensus for FY25e EBITDA. We also roll forwards our valuation to March 2025. Our target price increases 15% but with limited upside we retain our Neutral rating. We continue to believe that UU will be a beneficiary of the ''capex wave'' across the UK water industry which should drive RAB and earnings growth. We believe, however, UU lacks outperformance potential vs peers given its lower dividend yield.