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  • 15 May 2025

FY25 conference call key points & views


United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Martin Thomas MT

    • 9 pages


 

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FY25 conference call key points & views


United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m


  • Published: 15 May 2025
  • Author: Martin Thomas MT
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Overall view on the call: Little to materially impact the shares today with management largely deferring requests for further detail around targeted outperformance during AMP8 to the CMD planned for 19 June, whilst acknowledging the potential for some uncertainty around ODIs given the ongoing FD referrals to the CMA across the water sector. Key points from the call: . ODIs: This morning management guided to an ODI penalty in FY26. On the call no information was provided around the potential magnitude of this penalty, however, it was noted the penalty would likely be related to sewage flooding and CSOs, areas which are seeing investment activity with the expectation performance will improve across AMP8 leading to a net positive reward overall across the AMP (from ODIs and PCDs). . Detail around AMP8 outperformance to come: Quite a few questions around the detail of the ''at least 100bps'' outperformance targeted during AMP8. Management intends to provide more detail at the CMD in June around the breakdown of targeted outperformance across the business. . Finance costs expected to be main contributor: It was noted that financing would again be the main driver of outperformance, driven by the track record and strong balance sheet, with additional contribution from ODIs, PCDs and totex. Financing accounted for +2.8% of the 2.7% RORE outperformance delivered in AMP7 over the 4.0% base (pre OFWAT methodology change) during AMP7, with +2.0% from tax and +0.5% from ODIs, offset by -2.2% from totex and -0.4% from retail. Further information around the expected financing outperformance will be provided at the CMD. Other points from the call: . Outperformance target benefits from higher near-term infl: It was noted that the target includes some benefit from inflation being higher at the start of AMP8 with bank forecasts in the near-term reverting to 2% inflation two years out. . Potential impact from CMA appeals: Management acknowledged some uncertainty...

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