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24 Nov 2021
First Take: United Utilities Group - Consumption offsets inflation

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First Take: United Utilities Group - Consumption offsets inflation
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,141 -11.4 (-0.1%) | Mkt Cap: 7,779m
- Published:
24 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
5 -
1H22 results broadly in line
UU has reported 1H22 underlying operating profit of £33m (up 4.3%, INVe £327m, consensus £327m), underlying EPS of 28.4p (up 11.5%, INVe 27p, consensus 26.8p), and an interim dividend of 14.5p (up 0.6%, INVe 14.49p). Net debt of £7.4bn was in line with our £7.5bn estimate. (See Figure 1 overleaf.)
Presentation to be held at 9am: http://www.unitedutilitiestv.live/
FY guidance – revenue & costs dialled up
Revenue is expected to be around 2 per cent higher than 2020/21, largely reflecting higher overall consumption. This is an upgrade vs. marginally lower at FY. Our pre-existing estimates assume a 1.5% increase.
Underlying operating costs are expected to be higher year-on-year, reflecting inflationary increases net of efficiencies coming through core costs, and IRE is expected to increase due to investment in DNM. This points to higher costs than previously guided, where UU had pointed to a marginal increase. UU has expressed confidence that it can deliver its AMP7 scope within its Final Determination totex allowance. Our estimates assume a 4.7% increase.
Underlying finance expense is expected to be higher year-on-year as higher inflation impacts index-linked debt. No change
Capex in 2021/22 is expected to be in the range of £625-675m. No change.
UU remains confident in targeting a net customer ODI reward of around £20m in 2021/22. No change.