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16 Nov 2023
First Take: United Utilities Group - FY24 guidance confirmed

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First Take: United Utilities Group - FY24 guidance confirmed
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
16 Nov 2023 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
5 -
1H24 in line at the underlying operating profit line, beat at EPS
UU has reported 1H24 underlying operating profit of £271m (up 4.9%, INVe £277m, consensus £275m), underlying EPS of 13.2p (vs. (1.8)p in 1H23, INVe 10.5p, consensus 12.2p), and an interim dividend of 16.59p (up 9.5%, INVe 16.59p). Net debt of £8.5bn was in line with our, and consensus’, estimate of £8.4bn. (See Figure 1 overleaf).
Presentation to be held at 9am, with slides here.
FY24 guidance – no change
Revenue is expected to be around £150m higher than 2022/23, reflecting the uplift from November 2022 CPIH of 9.4%, partially offset by a £20m net impact of over/under-recovery during 2022/23 and 2021/22. This is unchanged vs. the around £150m higher guidance at FY23. Our pre-existing estimates assume a £148m increase.
Underlying operating costs are expected to be £60m higher year-on-year, reflecting inflationary increases, higher power and labour costs, and the impact of additional investments. Guidance provided at FY23 pointed to an increase of around £60m. Our pre-existing estimates assume a £57m increase.
Underlying finance expense is expected to be at least £150m lower year-on-year, due to the impact of lower inflation on index-linked debt. At FY23, guidance was for at ‘least £150m lower’. Our pre-existing estimates point to a £147m decrease, but we note that each 1% on inflation impacts the finance charge by c.£45m.
Capex in 2023/24 is expected to be in the range of £720-800m, in line with the £720-800m guidance at FY23. Our pre-existing estimate is for £853m.
UU remains confident in targeting a net customer ODI reward of around £200m in total over AMP7. No change. For FY24, UU is forecasting to double its ODI reward, with guidance of over £50m.