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26 May 2022
First Take: United Utilities Group - Inflation to hit earnings

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First Take: United Utilities Group - Inflation to hit earnings
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
26 May 2022 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
Slight beat in FY22…
Underlying operating profit of £610m (INVe £603m, consensus £604m). Underlying EPS 53.8p (INVe 51.3p, cons. 51.8p). Dividend 43.50p (INVe 43.48p, cons. 43.54p). Net debt of £7.6bn was in-line with our estimate of £7.7bn (consensus £7.6bn).
>80% of ODI commitments met or exceeded, with net outperformance reward of £25m.
UU has delivered RORE of 7.9%, well above the base return of 3.9%, with ODIs, financing performance and tax in positive territory.
…but inflation to bite in FY23
Guidance for FY23 is for revenue to be around 1% higher than the £1.86bn reported in FY22. Our pre-existing estimate is £1.88m.
Operating costs are expected to be around £100m higher than the £835m reported in FY22 (including IRE costs). We have £899m in our pre-existing estimates (including IRE costs). We suggest that the aggregate of the above could see downward pressure on our pre-existing FY23E underlying operating profit.
Underlying finance expense is expected to be £150m higher than the £306m reported in FY22 due to inflation on £4.3bn of index-linked debt. We have £263m in our pre-existing estimates.
UU is targeting a net ODI reward of c.£30m in FY23.
UU references its CPIH growth policy for AMP7, and for FY23E we have 45.47p in our pre-existing estimates, consistent with the 4.6% CPIH UU has referenced.