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28 Mar 2023
First Take: United Utilities Group - Moving parts offset

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First Take: United Utilities Group - Moving parts offset
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
28 Mar 2023 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
Trading statement suggests moving parts in P&L
Revenue is now expected to be c.1% lower than the previous guidance of a 1% drop vs. FY22, due to lower consumption, the impact of which will be recovered in future years. This suggests an impact of c.£19m in FY23. Operating cost guidance is unchanged.
Underlying net finance expense for FY23 is now expected to be around £175m higher than last year, some £10m higher than previous guidance, largely as a consequence of higher inflation.
An underlying tax credit for FY23 of between £15m and £25m, reflecting the higher interest charge and a change in approach to carried forward tax losses is now expected, vs. previous guidance of a charge of £5m to £10m.
In aggregate, the impacts broadly offset, but we have placed our estimates under review given the line item impact.
Group net debt is expected to increase compared with the interim result, largely reflecting the impact of inflation on index-linked debt. Our FY23E net debt estimate is £8.1bn vs. £7.8bn reported at 1H23.
FY23 ODI expectations lowered, no change to AMP7 ODI guidance
In December, UU experienced a period of extreme weather with some customers experiencing short-term supply interruptions caused by rapid freeze-thaw events, leading to burst pipes. ODI performance for the year will be adversely impacted, and net ODI outperformance for FY23 is now expected to be in the £20m to £25m range. Previous ODI guidance was ‘around £30m’. ODI guidance for AMP7 remains unchanged and UU continues to target a net reward of c.£200m.
Strategy update at FY23 on 25th May
FY23 results will be presented by incoming CEO Louise Beardmore on 25th May 2023, and will include an update on group strategy.