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27 Sep 2021
First Take: United Utilities Group - Operating profit expected up

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First Take: United Utilities Group - Operating profit expected up
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
27 Sep 2021 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
Revenue & operating profit up
Net revenue in 1H22 is expected to be higher than last year, up c.4%. This is above the 0.6% reduction our estimates suggest for the full-year.
Underlying operating profit for 1H22 is expected to be higher than last year due to both the revenue increase and efficiencies, only partly offset by inflationary pressures on costs. Our current FY22E estimates point to a 6.8% drop in operating profit.
Net finance expense in 1H22 is expected to be c.£25m higher due to higher inflation on index-linked debt, and again directionally, this is something we have captured in our estimates, which see an £80m jump for the full-year.
The effective tax rate for 1H22 is expected to be around 5%, although a deferred tax charge of c.£380m is expected in 1H22.
Net debt is expected to rise slightly vs. end-March, consistent with our view that FY22E net debt will be higher than FY21A.
No change in AMP7 guidance
UU has indicated that guidance on regulatory performance for AMP7 remains unchanged from that given at the FY21 results in May.
Overall, current trading is in line with management expectations, but in light of the points noted above, we have placed our estimates under review.