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25 May 2023
First Take: United Utilities Group - Pressure on our FY24E

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First Take: United Utilities Group - Pressure on our FY24E
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
25 May 2023 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
FY23 in line…
Underlying operating profit of £441m (INVe £446m, consensus £441m). Underlying EPS (1.3)p (INVe (3.6)p, cons. (3.5)p). Dividend 45.51p (INVe 45.49p, cons. 46p). Net debt of £8.2bn was in-line with our estimate of £8.07bn (consensus £8.17bn).
ODI net outperformance reward of £25m (vs. guidance of £20-25m). ODI guidance for AMP7 remains unchanged with a net reward target of c.£200m.
UU has delivered RORE of 11%, well above the base return of 4.0%, with ODIs, financing performance and tax in positive territory.
…guidance suggests downside to our FY24E estimates
Guidance for FY24 is for revenue to be around £150m higher than the £1.824bn reported in FY23. Our pre-existing estimate is £2.04bn.
Operating costs are expected to be around £60m higher than the £960m reported in FY23 (including IRE costs). We have £1,036m in our pre-existing estimates (including IRE costs). We suggest that the aggregate of the above could see downward pressure on our pre-existing FY24E underlying operating profit.
Underlying finance expense is expected to be £150m lower than the £475m reported in FY23 due to inflation on £4.5bn of index-linked debt. We have £221m in our pre-existing estimates.
UU references its CPIH growth policy for AMP7, and for FY24E we have 49.76p in our pre-existing estimates, consistent with the 9.3% CPIH UU has referenced.