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25 Mar 2022
First Take: United Utilities Group - Trading statement – moving parts

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First Take: United Utilities Group - Trading statement – moving parts
United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON) | 1,143 -120 (-0.9%) | Mkt Cap: 7,794m
- Published:
25 Mar 2022 -
Author:
Martin Young -
Pages:
4 -
Moving parts, but tax the biggest difference
Group revenue is expected to be higher than last year, largely reflecting higher consumption from business customers, with United Utilities suggesting growth of c.3%. This compares to growth of c.2.2% in our pre-existing estimates.
Underlying operating profit for 2021/22 is expected to be broadly the same as in 2020/21 as higher revenue is broadly offset by higher underlying operating costs, the latter due to inflationary pressures. Our pre-existing estimates model a £16m YOY decline, the difference vs. UU’s guidance is largely due to revenue as discussed above.
UU now expects the underlying net finance expense for 2021/22 to be around £175m higher than 2020/21, largely due to higher inflation applied to the group's index-linked debt. Our pre-existing estimates model a £154m increase, suggesting that guidance on operating profit is offset by that on finance expense.
Higher inflation will feed through into revenues in due course (November inflation is used to set bills), and it will increase the year-end RCV.
On tax, however, there is a positive impact due to capital allowances, including the temporary super deductions available for the current year, and the expected agreement of prior years' tax matters, with UU expecting an underlying tax credit for 2021/22 of around £60m. This compares to an assumed tax rate of 2% (£6m charge) in our pre-existing estimates.
Without guiding towards a specific level, UU expects an increase in group net debt at 31st March 2022 compared with the prior year. Our pre-existing estimates model a c.£0.4bn increase.
There is no change in AMP7 guidance on regulatory performance.