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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ARMADALE CAPITAL PLC. We currently have 27 research reports from 4 professional analysts.

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Breakfast Today

  • 08 Dec 16

"Having backed Brexit with an overwhelming majority yesterday, voting in favour of triggering article 50 by 31st March 2017, MPs also supported the labour motion calling for the government to unveil its proposals ahead of this date in order to permit minister to 'properly scrutinise' the plans. Accepted the motion was Theresa May's concession to keep her timetable on track, but has it made the likely outcome any clearer? No really is the answer. The government is still awaiting the result of its appeal at the Supreme Court, which is expected in January, which will require MPs to separately approve the issue if it loses. Meanwhile, of course, the EU's lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has conveyed three principal messages regarding the process of this divorce, namely: (i) that negotiations should be shorter than the prescribed two years, lasting less than 18 months; (ii) the EU-27 remain his overriding priority and; (iii) the final outcome will be financially worse for the UK than under its existing EU membership. While not mentioning the UK's outstanding financial liabilities to the EU in his recent deliberations, Mr Barnier told colleagues he estimated the British exit bill wcould be as much as EUR60bn, and settling this matter would be a necessary first step toward building a new partnership. Not that European woes will be on the minds of investors first thing this morning. US equities surged once more overnight, as the Dow Jones burst through to another record high and all other major indices surged well in excess of 1%. Traders were unable to point at a specific trigger for this buying, other than pointing at a large number of futures contracts that had been placed by automatically by program trading algorithms which, in turn, accelerated purchases in the cash markets, as strategists across New York recommended sharp increases in equity weightings while suggesting that the Trump-inspired bear market in government bonds still has some way to go. Asian equities mostly rode again on Wall Street's coat-tails, with the ASX leading the way as its commodity-heavy index continued to drive higher on spiking minerals prices and the expectation of increased global activity. The Nikkei also put in a strong performance, despite reporting growth figures quite sharply below first estimates, leaving only the Shanghai Composite to record a fractional loss. Europe today is due to make its interest rate decision, followed by a press briefing by ECB president, Mario Draghi; bond investors are already betting that he will confirm a 6-month QE extension, although they will remain sensitive to any suggestion of a future timetable beyond September 2017 to commence tapering. No significant macro data is expected from the UK today, but later this afternoon the US is due to release its jobless claims numbers. UK corporates due to report earnings or trading updates include Capita (CPI.L), DS Smith (SMDS.L), Mulberry Group (MUL.L), Ocado (OCDO.L), Servoca (SVCA.L), Sports Direct (SPD.L) and TUI (TUI.L). Traders will also remain aloof for further details regarding the overnight transaction between Russia and a consortium formed by Glencore (GLEN.L) and Qatar, in which a 19.5% stake in the state-controlled oil giant, Rosneft, was sold in a deal valued at US$11.3bn. Such a disposal of part of the country's 'crown jewels' will quite possibly be seen as a sign of financial stress from Putin's government, and lead investors to consider what other valuable assets might also be put on the auction block. London equities will again ride the bullish wave coming from across the Atlantic, with the FTSE-100 seen rising some 15 points in early trade." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst

Breakfast Today

  • 06 Dec 16

"Markets quickly recovered their composure following the Prime Minister of Italy's shock resignation yesterday, with all major global indices closing in the positive. Near-term focus remains on the impact of international reflation, with investors asking whether the ECB's meeting on Thursday will be brave enough to conclude that the European economy is now sufficiently strong to propose cutting back the amount of bonds it stockpiles from the EUR80bn it has been buying every month since March. While such a possibility was signalled by Mario Draghi in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Pais last week, any tapering of its purchases would likely accelerate further the current sell-off in government bond markets, spiking yields and threatening stability of highly-indebted countries, like Italy, while also stunting growth in the region's more prosperous regions. Whatever, the expectation that Trump may oblige the Federal Reserve to effectively 'look the other way' as let the economy 'run hot' despite rising inflation continues to boost equities at the expense of Treasuries, as the Dow Jones hit yet another record high yesterday and technology stocks returned to favour sufficiently to push the NASDAQ up over 1%. Riding on the back of Wall Street, Asia was also firmer across the board, although the Shanghai Composite ended only just in the positive, as the traders considered Trump's latest criticisms of Chinese policy on social media to be a sign of tough trade and tariff negotiations to come. Almost adopting a 'if you can't beat them, join them' approach, the Bank of England's Mark Carney yesterday also entered the debate, calling on policy makers to pursue a better mix of fiscal, structural and monetary policies, noting that for too long central banks have been "the only game in town"; he also repeated earlier guidance provided by his officials that the Bank will be prepared to let annual inflation drift above its 2% target in order to support economic growth. Having seen this morning's BRC November same-store retail sales post 0.6% growth year-on-year, with the overall figure up 1.3%, no further significant macro data is expected from the UK today, although the US will release Factory Orders this afternoon. UK Corporates due to provide earnings or trading updates include Ashstead (AHT.L), Imagination Technologies (IMG.L), Northgate (NTG.L), On the Beach (OTB.L), Ultra Electronics (ULE.L), Vianet Group (VNET.L) and Wolseley (WOS.L). London is seen opening nervously this morning, with the FTSE-100 seen down 12 points in opening trade." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst

Breakfast Today

  • 22 Nov 16

"Chancellor Philip Hammond's first Autumn Statement, which is due tomorrow, now looks to be a rather unexciting event. Having abandoned Osborne's proposal to deliver a budget surplus by 2020, early hopes of him taking his foot right off the austerity pedal with a view to heading-out on a spending spree, pumping money broadly into infrastructure, corporate and other private incentives, appear to have been misplaced. Speaking on the BBC's weekend Andrew Marr Show, his tenor even reminded some of his predecessor, when stressing economic "credibility" was key, while reminding viewers that the UK's debt was still "eye-wateringly" large and that any plans must be "responsible". Indeed, the IFS even suggests Hammond should "prepare for more austerity" in the next parliament, given that debt as a share of national income has risen close to 90%. So, other than detailing the £1.3bn to target congested roads that has already been leaked (with key beneficiaries being Atkins (ATK.L), Breedon (BREE.L), Costain (COST.L), Hill & Smith (HILS.L) and Kier (KIER.L)), the Statement is likely to centre on existing major projects like HS2, Theresa May's extra £2bn investment in R&D and the already announced £3bn housing fund (potentially boosting the major housebuilders) plus £2bn loan fund to pay for 15,000 new homes by 2020, by which time corporation tax will also have been cut back to 17%. It seems rather unlikely that he will propose any increase of existing income tax allowances, raise the threshold for higher-rate payers or cut VAT. Anti-climax could be seen through a spate of profit taking following Sterling's recent rally. The US session by comparison closed with gains across the board yesterday as the S&P-500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ all hit new record highs. By the session close, however, Trump was telling the media he planned to stick with hi election pledge to quit the TPP on his first day, meaning the US will walk away from seven years of careful negotiation, which many see as effectively handing the baton to China who was not part of the original pact. Asia, however, took the news in its stride with all regional bourses making gains led by the Hang Seng and ASX as oil prices rallied as hopes of a production cut being agreed at next week's OPEC meeting rose, while even the Nikkei recovered early losses following news of the earthquake off its east coast Tuesday morning. As a result, Europe looks to follow suit with broad gains being seen during early morning trade, despite ECB top officials warning that it is not yet ready to scale back its EUR1.7TR bond-purchase and stimulus programme; the FTSE-100 is seen opening up some 45 points. This morning's UK macro releases include Public sector finances and the CBI quarterly Distributive Trades Survey. UK corporates due to release earnings or trading updates include Babcock (BAB.L), CML Microsystems (CML.L), Compass Group (CPG.L), De La Rue (DLAR.L), Homeserve (HSV.L), Kingfisher (KGF.L) and Mitchells & Butler (MAB.L). Traders will also be keeping an eye open for any news later today, as David Davis, the Brexit secretary, meets with the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, in Brussels today in an effort to prepare for an 'orderly' exit." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst

Breakfast Today

  • 09 Nov 16

"Take a deep breath and weigh up the consequences. At the time of writing, Trump appears poised to capture the ultimate protest vote in a most divisive race that has exposed the deep divides across the States by class, race and gender. Just about every significant domino fell his way with even the Senate looking like it has been captured, which now leaves investors to ponder the pace at which he will attempt to fulfil his multitude of campaign pledges. While US equities closed overnight on a nervous, but still upbeat tone with all principal indices rising, only the Asian markets remained open as the results actually trickled in. Plunging amid wild volatility, the Nikkei was seen almost in panic as the Yen/US$ spiked sharply, with the ASX and Hang Seng also falling significantly while the Shanghai Composite held up surprisingly well despite Trump’s anti-free-trade rhetoric being pointed very much at the emerging markets. Treasuries, normally the best place to park money during times of turmoil are lurching lower as investors price in a less predictable occupant of the White House, along with expectations that Janet Yellen, who he accused of being Democratic stooge, is now unlikely to be given a second term as expectation of a Feb December rate hike also dives to below 50% from a peak of 84% in October. Europe will rue the likely collapse of TTIP while environmental campaigners also foresee Trump abandoning Obama’s Clean Power Plan. With S&P futures slumping as much as 5%, markets in Europe are predicted to suffer similar losses with the FTSE-100 seen down over 200 points in this morning’s opening trade. Largely irrelevant against this background, the UK will today will release trade data while also awaiting OECD leading indicators, although a scheduled speech from the Fed’s Kashkari this afternoon could throw up some significant points. A large number of UK corporates, including Burberry (BRBY.L), esure (ESUR.L), Experian (EXPN.L), Flybe (FLYB.L), Sainsbury’s (SBRY.L), SSE (SSE.L) and Tullow Oil (TLW.L). Today markets worldwide, that had been comfortably positioned for a ‘business as normal’ Clinton victory, will be subject to quite rampant volatility as they try to reposition themselves and seek out international safe havens, including gold. For the brave, this will throw up some quite exceptional buying opportunities as traders seek out the likely sectorial winners which seem to include Financials, Defence and Healthcare. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst