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26 Jun 2024
First Take: AO World - Confident outlook

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First Take: AO World - Confident outlook
AO World Plc (AO:LON) | 101 2.6 2.7% | Mkt Cap: 586.5m
- Published:
26 Jun 2024 -
Author:
Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert -
Pages:
4 -
Finals – 12 months ending 31st March 2024
Pre-reported full year sales are £1,040m, c. -9% YoY having been c. -12% at H1, which implies H2 sales were -6%, with positive sales reported in Q4 (at the full year trading update in March). Full year adj. PBT is £34.3m, +186% YoY and a touch ahead of prior guidance (Visible Alpha consensus: £33.5m). As such, H2 adj. PBT was £21.2m, +5.4%, YoY, driven by improving H2 sales declines and H2 gross margins up c. +100bps (H1: +400bps) - as management continued to implement its ‘Strategic pivot’. Operationally, good progress has been made; MDA market share declines also appear to have stabilised (following the ‘Strategic pivot’) and were -70bps for the year (H1 FY24: -160bp). As such, market share (in MDA) is now broadly back in line with its pre-pandemic average, at c. 15.1%, and pleasingly the company has also now achieved its highest Trustpilot rating at 4.8. New customers this year were reported at 600k (H1: +290k) implying H2 trends in line with H1 but, pleasingly, the repeat customer rate is now as high as 54%. Separately, the company reports that it has strengthened its position in the mobile market with the acquisition of intellectual property rights in and to the websites www.affordablemobiles.co.uk and www.buymobiles.net , giving it additional sale channels from which to grow the mobile business. Elsewhere, as expected, net funds were £34.4m (LY: £3.6m) – bringing overall liquidity to £116m (LY: £89m).
Outlook and view
Outlook: Management is confident of delivering “double-digit” revenue growth in FY25 (versus Visible Alpha consensus expecting +7% YoY, thereby suggesting current trading is strong) alongside adj. PBT of £36m to £41m (Visible Alpha consensus: £38.3m). Management also maintains its medium-term ambition for an adj. PBT margin of 5%, double digit revenue growth and EPS growing faster than revenue.
We believe our top-of-the-range forecasts are underpinned by strong top line momentum in current trading. We recently initiated with a Buy and target price of 130p (see link to initiation: On the cusp...(39 pages) ). We reiterate our view that having significantly improved customer profitability since Covid, AO is likely to benefit from the surge in new customers won during the pandemic who are on the cusp of returning, to AO, in a UK electricals market that is more ‘rational’ and ripe for recovery. We believe today’s results - which show high customer repeat rates coupled with a confident outlook - supports our thesis. Meanwhile, further plans to reconfigure its supply chain could unlock profitable growth in the large SDA market.