RhythmOne has announced H1 result for the year to Sept 2018. They have also announced approval of a share buy back. In H1 revenues grew to $175.5m up 53% YoY. Gross margin improved significantly to 45% from 38%. There was a significant improvement in Adjusted EBITDA to $20.5m, $17.5m better than H1 2017 $3.0m. After seasonal working capital outflow, cash flow is expected to be very strong in H2 and they will buy back shares. Our EBITDA forecasts are unchanged. We retain our Buy rating and 770p price target.
Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is investigating the possibility of AIM admission. The Company is proposing to raise up to £2.25 million before the end of December, conditional on Admission.
Manolete Partners—leading UK insolvency litigation financing business looking to join AIM raising £16.3m as a placing and £13.1 realised by the selling shareholder at 175p. Market cap £76.3m, expected 14 December
Titon holdings—international manufacturer and supplier of ventilation systems and window and door hardware. No capital raise. Due 10 Dec. Mkt cap c.£22m.
Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected early December.
Finncap—proposed acquisition of M&A adviser Cavendish Corporate Finance and AIM admission. Offer raising £3.75m of new money and £1.25m for selling shareholders, market cap of £47.1m. Due 5 December
The Panoply parent company of a digitally native technology services group founded in 2016 with the aim of identifying and acquiring best-of-breed specialist information technology and innovation consulting businesses across Europe, is looking to join AIM. Offer £5m new capital, £400k sell-down, market cap of £30m, expected late 4 Dec 2018.
Companies: MCLS RTHM UEX WRES MERC PXC FAR ULS BVC
See what's trending this week...
Alongside the CFO change announcement, RTHM included a compact update on trading. While H1 revenues are off plan (weak Performance market and integration disruption), lasting effects look likely to be modest and the biggest implication of H1 EBITDA guidance is that costs have been reduced much faster than expected, providing comfort for the full year. EBITDA looks set to continue to soar and investors are likely to focus on H1’19 EBITDA progress; c$20m compares very favourably with $3.1m in H1’18 and $14.0m for all of FY18. Our new FY19 forecast is for $48m. The stock trades on just 3.6x FY19 EV/EBITDA. We adjust our TP to 533p (was 730p) implying investors can more than double their money. BUY.
boohoo.com (BOO LN) Lead indicators at PLT suggest strong growth ahead - Buy | Fulcrum Utility Services Limited (FCRM LN) Solid H1 performance with guidance reiterated | Futura Medical (FUM LN) H1’s highlight focus on MED2002: funding options being explored | NCC Group (NCC LN) Solid start to the year | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Trimming numbers, but profits are leaping | Trifast (TRI LN) Solid growth, trading in line with FY19 expectations | Vectura Group (VEC LN) More conservative stance on flutiform®, but significant upside remains
Companies: BOO FCRM FUM NCC RTHM TRI VEC
Today R1 has announced a positive trading update and the continued restructuring of the business with CFO Ed Reginelli resigning and being replaced by Mark Zorko. This is consistent with continued execution of R1 financial plan focused on accelerating growth and profitability. We retain our Buy and 770p price target.
In what appears to be a short rushed trading update centred around CFO change, the group indicates revenues of c$170-180m for H1 and EBITDA of $19-21m. This is lower than our $204m of revenue and $23.5m of EBITDA. There are no other KPIs. While this is lower than expected it still shows a huge leap forward in revenues (c50%) and perhaps more importantly EBITDA (prior year was just $3.1m). It seems likely that full year FY19 consensus will fall by 10% or so but that still implies EBITDA still in the high 40s vs $14.0m in FY18. Equally the valuation is discounting so much the stock still looks ridiculously cheap. It is disappointing to see yet more senior management change, however perhaps not unexpected given the new CEO is setting up the business as he wants. We also note the following quote: “the Company continues to evaluate various strategic opportunities with a focus of maximising shareholder value.” We expect management to be progressing with seeking to merge or buy a business to drive operational leverage and make the most of the RTHM platform. We put our TP and forecast sunder review at this stage, but flag the stock is still very cheap and that the large boost to profitability is still on track. H1 EBITDA was after all much higher than the whole of last year (c$20m vs $14m).
A G Barr (BAG LN) | Directa Plus (DCTA LN) | Genus (GNS LN) | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) | Swallowfield (SWL LN) | WYG (WYG LN)
Companies: BAG DCTA GNS RTHM SGM SDY BAR WYG
RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Q1 positive trading update
Trackwise—established business that manufactures specialist products using printed circuit technology. Offer TBA. Due Late July
Ovoca Gold (to be renamed Ovoca Bio PLC) - RTO of IVIX, a Russian company developing a drug candidate for the treatment of female sexual dysfunctions. No monies to be raised, market cap of £8.5m, due 30 July
Nucleus Financial—independent wrap platform provider . FYDec17 revs £40.36m and PBT of £5.1m. Offer TBA. Due late July.
Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
Companies: IPF SOHO INSE PVR DPEU RTHM LTHM CREO MMX GDR
R1 has reported FY results for the year to March to 2018, and they are in line with the April 19th trading statement, although cash at $27m was $1m better, as the working capital build in H1 more than unwound. FCF yield of 17% for 2019E and 20% for 2020E. Retain Buy Pt 770p
1Spatial (SPA LN) Capital markets day highlights growth potential | Abzena (ABZA LN) Monetising the Abzena Inside portfolio | Consort Medical (CSRT LN) Prelims in line – another setback with Mylan | Gym Group (GYM LN) Positive corporate and premium pricing newsflow | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) In line update but number of moving parts might leave investors cold | Rathbone Brothers (RAT LN) Acquisition of Speirs & Jeffrey, no EPS accretion until FY20e | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) FY18 results show execution, EBITDA to almost quadruple in FY19 | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) Recovery delivered; Returns improving
Companies: ABZA CSRT GYM BWNG RAT RTHM SDY SPA
We have completed another refresh of our value style screen, first established as of 12 May 2015. As usual the screen selected the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme value characteristics from our universe, and we have chosen 10 stocks to focus on. Since the last refresh, two days before the last general election, which resulted in a hung parliament, the screen has performed a little better than the small-cap index with our focus stocks outperforming by about 500bps. The weighting to UK consumer stocks noted last time detracted from performance, which came as little surprise given our cautious stance, much discussed in our other strategy work this year. One might have expected more consumer exposure in the refreshed screen given this year’s severe underperformance, but it appears forecasts have been similarly downgraded, keeping much of the sector outside our value criteria
Companies: AUG EHG GOAL MMH RTHM SDY TEF VANL
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Rhythmone.
We currently have 59 research reports from 4
The ‘Moving Forward Act', the strongest automotive safety bill in decades, has now been passed in the House of Representatives. The bill is focused on advancing safety technologies proven to reduce crash and harm and to make sure strong safety standards are in place to save lives. The bill, which now needs to be passed in the Senate, will mandate automatic braking, lane-keeping, blind-spot detection, event data recorders as well as DMS in all cars and trucks sold in the US from 2024. This aligns with the European General Safety Regulation, which passed into law in November 2019.
However, in the EU, the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA) has requested a 2‐year delay for the introduction of the 2022 Euro-NCAP protocols due to the projected lengthy time that will be needed to recover from the effects of COVID-19. Euro NCAP has agreed, and a delay is now expected to the 2022 and 2024 rating. The new dates will give automakers and Tier 1 suppliers more time to incorporate the necessary changes given the events of recent months with a number of manufacturers announcing 12 month delays to new models.
Companies: Seeing Machines
The FY 2020 results are in line with our expectations and reflect the impact of the previously announced switch from large perpetual licences to recurring annual term licences during the year. Despite the COVID strictures, with its large global partnerships, D4t4 continues to close numerous lucrative data gathering and data management contracts with major blue-chips around the world. It is successfully converting a high proportion of its new sales to recurring revenue contracts, but this will sacrifice growth and earnings in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Nevertheless, with growing recurring revenue base, an exciting pipeline and a very strong balance sheet, D4t4 is very well positioned for continued long-term growth and security.
Companies: D4T4 Solutions
GB Group reported strong performance in FY20 and started taking measures to preserve cash in Q420. Trading in Q121 has been mixed and while management is unwilling to provide guidance for FY21, it has confidence that in the longer term it is well positioned to benefit from the acceleration in digital transformation that should drive demand for its identity data intelligence services. We have upgraded our EPS forecasts by 5% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
Companies: GB Group
CentralNic’s capital markets day (CMD) on 24 June 2020 introduced the divisional management team and provided insight on each of the three key segments as they will report in FY20: Indirect (Wholesale, Registry); Monetisation (Team Internet); and Direct (Retail, Corporate). We have picked out what we believe are the four key themes from the CMD: FY20 performance, COVID-19 and seasonality; organic growth; M&A; and, pulling it all together, the benefit of scale. CentralNic continues to trade on an FY20 EV/EBITDA of 9.1x and a P/E of 15.8x, a material discount to its peer group, with our DCF indicating further share price upside. M&A could bring CentralNic’s multiples down further.
Companies: Centralnic Group
LoopUp has provided an update on trading to coincide with today’s AGM…in essence, the group continues to see activity “materially” above pre-COVID levels, and is confident of exceeding expectations for 2020. We choose to leave our forecasts (that we believe to be roughly in line with consensus estimates) unchanged for now, in advance of further detail likely with a fuller H1 update in early July.
Companies: Loopup Group
IMImobile has issued an encouraging trading update, highlighting resilience in the Group’s core cloud communications operation. Gross profit rose 20%, with core Cloud comms (c.90%/revs) up >30% (inc. 3C acquisition). We estimate underlying organic decline at -5% y/y, in the middle of our scenario based range (-15% to 7%) with slow decline implying stabilisation in underlying communication traffic volumes post-lockdown. This stabilisation has been driven by growth in core sectors offsetting decline in sectors adversely impacted by the pandemic. Significantly, demand for the Group’s IMIConnect platform (SaaS revenues model) has remained robust as customers look to accelerate Digital Communication strategies, whilst upsell of additional channels in Q1 is also likely to drive future additional volumes from the Group’s existing base. Net cash of £2m is only modestly light of previous N1S forecasts for H1’21 prior to lockdown (£6.3m) and implies positive FCF through the previous 9-month period. We keep forecasts under review at this stage. In the medium-term, we see a path based on undemanding assumptions to FCF of £15m, offering a 7% yield at current valuation. The Group trades on 12x FY’19 EV/EBITDA (c.10x FY (Mar)’20E EBITDA based on previous forecasts), below recent sector acquisition multiples whilst offering a higher proportion of recurring revenue and operating further up the CPaaS value chain.
Gresham continues to show strong progress in difficult times. 18% yoy organic growth in Clareti ARR is amongst the fastest growth of any UK software company. It is being achieved because Gresham has built a disruptive product that is now replacing incumbents at Tier 1 financial institutions around the world. These results underpin our FY20 EBITDA expectations. The implied valuation of Clareti’s ARR is <6x revs, which we think offers value for an emerging leader.
Companies: Gresham Technologies
ECSC Group plc* (ECSC.L, 71.5p/£7.2m) | Trackwise Designs plc (TWD.L, 90.5p/£20.0m) | Transense Technologies plc (TRT.L, 59.5p/£9.7m)
Companies: ECSC Group Trackwise Designs
SDL held an introductory session for the Group’s new SLATE proposition (launched in June). Good traction has been seen within the Group’s existing base presenting an attractive upsell opportunity, whilst also enabling expansion of the Group’s TAM with a market-leading, highly automated and immensely scalable solution. Management estimate SME and ‘off-grid’ translation projects to be a market worth in excess of $10bn, with SLATE allowing the Group to target these areas in a more meaningful way. The new product fits with SDL’s strategic objectives of building deeper relationships with existing customers and building leadership in Language technologies. N1Se conservatively forecast Language Tech segment revenue growth of +4% and +6% for FY’20E and FY’21E. Outperformance in FY’21 by £2m of sales (FY’21E LT growth: +10% y/y) could deliver £1m uplift to EBITDA and FCF we estimate (+3% and +4% vs current forecasts). N1Se FY’21E forecasts currently generate an FCF yield in excess of 8%, with risk to the upside.
A strong interim period to January 2020 delivered the expected £26m revenue as reported in the February trading update, with a 31 January net cash balance also of £26m – EBITDA of £5.6m (post IFRS16), and adjusted PBT of £4.6m highlighting a strong performance. The Group has unchanged strategic ambitions – organic growth and M&A, both in evidence in Rail Technology & Services (RT&S) with 13% organic growth and the post period end acquisition of iBlocks. We withdrew forecasts last week due to the impact of COVID-19 on the 2H-weighted Traffic & Data Services business, given the exposure to cancelled large scale summer events, and uncertainty over traffic surveys; however, the potential for the Group is unchallenged when the world normalises. New contract wins, new product launches, new acquisitions and a hearty balance sheet continued to offer significant upside in 1H and post period end. Target price 900p remains based on our FY21 forecasts, which in theory should be consistent with previous forecasts and we look forward to reinstating numbers when the virus dust settles.
LoopUp recently updated on the first four months of 2020, which have seen an exceptional level of customer activity and new client wins. This is largely driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated shift towards remote working with additional use of conference calls, but the group has also recently implemented an increased focus on Professional Services, which in our opinion could boost long-term potential. This note focuses on current activity levels within the business, the opportunity within Professional Services and the attitude of investors towards remote meetings companies.
Oxford Metrics has delivered solid 1HMar20 results, with sales of £15.0m (PY: £16.1m) and adj. PBT £0.3m (PY: £1.7). Within this, Yotta demonstrated continued ARR progression (up +15% to £6.8m) while at Vicon, the division added additional bluechip customers, further validating its industry leading position. Progress was, however, held back by lockdown restrictions. £1.1m of expected orders slipped to post period, but have now largely been fulfilled. Had they occurred as expected group sales would have been flat y/y. Looking ahead, CV19 related uncertainty leads us to withdraw forecasts. At this stage we expect disruption to be short-lived. As such – and considering OMG’s persuasive track record - we continue to view the company as a long-term winner in this growth industry.
Companies: Oxford Metrics
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
The Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy of vast proportions – as well as the terrible human toll, COVID-19 has led to economies across the globe going into physical lockdown and financial freefall. Entire populations are adapting to the “stay at home” edict, to safeguard the vulnerable – and some of these changes will lead to long-lasting or perhaps permanent changes in the way we live or work. This note describes some of our client companies whose business models are well adapted to these changes, or who might see a change in long-term structural demand.
Companies: AMO BGO FDM GAMA KAPE LOOP TERN ZOO