RhythmOne has announced H1 result for the year to Sept 2018. They have also announced approval of a share buy back. In H1 revenues grew to $175.5m up 53% YoY. Gross margin improved significantly to 45% from 38%. There was a significant improvement in Adjusted EBITDA to $20.5m, $17.5m better than H1 2017 $3.0m. After seasonal working capital outflow, cash flow is expected to be very strong in H2 and they will buy back shares. Our EBITDA forecasts are unchanged. We retain our Buy rating and 770p price target.
Crossword Cybersecurity PLC* (NEX:CCS)—the technology commercialisation company focusing exclusively on the cyber security sector is investigating the possibility of AIM admission. The Company is proposing to raise up to £2.25 million before the end of December, conditional on Admission.
Manolete Partners—leading UK insolvency litigation financing business looking to join AIM raising £16.3m as a placing and £13.1 realised by the selling shareholder at 175p. Market cap £76.3m, expected 14 December
Titon holdings—international manufacturer and supplier of ventilation systems and window and door hardware. No capital raise. Due 10 Dec. Mkt cap c.£22m.
Greenfields Petroleum (TSX-V:GNF) production focused company with operated assets in Azerbaijan seeking AIM dual listing including $60m private placement. Mkt cap $12.6m CAD. Expected early December.
Finncap—proposed acquisition of M&A adviser Cavendish Corporate Finance and AIM admission. Offer raising £3.75m of new money and £1.25m for selling shareholders, market cap of £47.1m. Due 5 December
The Panoply parent company of a digitally native technology services group founded in 2016 with the aim of identifying and acquiring best-of-breed specialist information technology and innovation consulting businesses across Europe, is looking to join AIM. Offer £5m new capital, £400k sell-down, market cap of £30m, expected late 4 Dec 2018.
Companies: MCLS RTHM UEX WRES MERC PXC FAR ULS BVC
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Alongside the CFO change announcement, RTHM included a compact update on trading. While H1 revenues are off plan (weak Performance market and integration disruption), lasting effects look likely to be modest and the biggest implication of H1 EBITDA guidance is that costs have been reduced much faster than expected, providing comfort for the full year. EBITDA looks set to continue to soar and investors are likely to focus on H1’19 EBITDA progress; c$20m compares very favourably with $3.1m in H1’18 and $14.0m for all of FY18. Our new FY19 forecast is for $48m. The stock trades on just 3.6x FY19 EV/EBITDA. We adjust our TP to 533p (was 730p) implying investors can more than double their money. BUY.
boohoo.com (BOO LN) Lead indicators at PLT suggest strong growth ahead - Buy | Fulcrum Utility Services Limited (FCRM LN) Solid H1 performance with guidance reiterated | Futura Medical (FUM LN) H1’s highlight focus on MED2002: funding options being explored | NCC Group (NCC LN) Solid start to the year | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Trimming numbers, but profits are leaping | Trifast (TRI LN) Solid growth, trading in line with FY19 expectations | Vectura Group (VEC LN) More conservative stance on flutiform®, but significant upside remains
Companies: BOO FCRM FUM NCC RTHM TRI VEC
Today R1 has announced a positive trading update and the continued restructuring of the business with CFO Ed Reginelli resigning and being replaced by Mark Zorko. This is consistent with continued execution of R1 financial plan focused on accelerating growth and profitability. We retain our Buy and 770p price target.
In what appears to be a short rushed trading update centred around CFO change, the group indicates revenues of c$170-180m for H1 and EBITDA of $19-21m. This is lower than our $204m of revenue and $23.5m of EBITDA. There are no other KPIs. While this is lower than expected it still shows a huge leap forward in revenues (c50%) and perhaps more importantly EBITDA (prior year was just $3.1m). It seems likely that full year FY19 consensus will fall by 10% or so but that still implies EBITDA still in the high 40s vs $14.0m in FY18. Equally the valuation is discounting so much the stock still looks ridiculously cheap. It is disappointing to see yet more senior management change, however perhaps not unexpected given the new CEO is setting up the business as he wants. We also note the following quote: “the Company continues to evaluate various strategic opportunities with a focus of maximising shareholder value.” We expect management to be progressing with seeking to merge or buy a business to drive operational leverage and make the most of the RTHM platform. We put our TP and forecast sunder review at this stage, but flag the stock is still very cheap and that the large boost to profitability is still on track. H1 EBITDA was after all much higher than the whole of last year (c$20m vs $14m).
A G Barr (BAG LN) | Directa Plus (DCTA LN) | Genus (GNS LN) | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) | Swallowfield (SWL LN) | WYG (WYG LN)
Companies: BAG DCTA GNS RTHM SGM SDY BAR WYG
RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Q1 positive trading update
Trackwise—established business that manufactures specialist products using printed circuit technology. Offer TBA. Due Late July
Ovoca Gold (to be renamed Ovoca Bio PLC) - RTO of IVIX, a Russian company developing a drug candidate for the treatment of female sexual dysfunctions. No monies to be raised, market cap of £8.5m, due 30 July
Nucleus Financial—independent wrap platform provider . FYDec17 revs £40.36m and PBT of £5.1m. Offer TBA. Due late July.
Kropz PLC-Intention to float by the emerging plant nutrient producer with an advanced stage phosphate mining project in South Africa and exploration assets in West Africa
Companies: IPF SOHO INSE PRP DPEU RTHM LTHM CREO MMX GDR
R1 has reported FY results for the year to March to 2018, and they are in line with the April 19th trading statement, although cash at $27m was $1m better, as the working capital build in H1 more than unwound. FCF yield of 17% for 2019E and 20% for 2020E. Retain Buy Pt 770p
1Spatial (SPA LN) Capital markets day highlights growth potential | Abzena (ABZA LN) Monetising the Abzena Inside portfolio | Consort Medical (CSRT LN) Prelims in line – another setback with Mylan | Gym Group (GYM LN) Positive corporate and premium pricing newsflow | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) In line update but number of moving parts might leave investors cold | Rathbone Brothers (RAT LN) Acquisition of Speirs & Jeffrey, no EPS accretion until FY20e | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) FY18 results show execution, EBITDA to almost quadruple in FY19 | Speedy Hire (SDY LN) Recovery delivered; Returns improving
Companies: ABZA CSRT GYM BWNG RAT RTHM SDY SPA
We have completed another refresh of our value style screen, first established as of 12 May 2015. As usual the screen selected the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme value characteristics from our universe, and we have chosen 10 stocks to focus on. Since the last refresh, two days before the last general election, which resulted in a hung parliament, the screen has performed a little better than the small-cap index with our focus stocks outperforming by about 500bps. The weighting to UK consumer stocks noted last time detracted from performance, which came as little surprise given our cautious stance, much discussed in our other strategy work this year. One might have expected more consumer exposure in the refreshed screen given this year’s severe underperformance, but it appears forecasts have been similarly downgraded, keeping much of the sector outside our value criteria
Companies: AUG EHG GOAL MMH RTHM SDY TEF VANL
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As a nation, we love knocking ourselves. However in truth, we’re actually a pretty pioneering bunch. For instance, the experts at Oxford University & AstraZeneca have developed one of the world’s 3 most important vaccines in double quick time. Plus, many other British firms are creating similar breakthrough Covid inventions, such as Kromek.
Companies: Kromek Group Plc
H1A delivered a very resilient performance given the backdrop of halted deliveries and reduced manufacturing capacity. Orders and shipments are resuming and a ramp up in activity levels is expected in H2. A cash outflow in H1A has been supported by new committed facilities and gross cash levels look set to support the business successfully through the second half and beyond.
Gamesys has reported a positive pre-close trading update. Strong momentum continued into Q420 and management now expects FY20 pro forma revenue and adjusted EBITDA will be at or above the upper end of current market expectations. We increase our FY21 and FY22 adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 4–6% due to higher revenue growth from a larger active customer base, and a higher and stable EBITDA margin that reflects ongoing investment in growing a sustainable business with a focus on responsible gambling. On our new forecasts, the free cash flow (FCF) yield for FY21e is 10.1% and the dividend yield is 3.0%.
Companies: Gamesys Group PLC
WEY Educaon (WEY) – Corporate – Trading significantly ahead; strong momentum prompts new ’21/’22E forecast
Touchstar (TST) – Corporate – Update points to a robust trading performance and strong cash generaon in the year
Companies: Wey Education PLC (WEY:LON)Touchstar plc (TST:LON)
A busy post-YE update reveals a strong H2 performance despite the second wave of COVID-19, and management expects to meet our FY20 forecasts of revenue and adj. earnings growth. As noted last year, there will be a £1.6m exceptional provision in FY20 for replacing its US tracking devices as 3G service ends there in 2022; it will not affect FY20 adj. earnings but will impact FY21 cashflow. YE net cash was slightly above expectations at £10.6m despite a laudable repayment of all government COVID support received. Most of that cash balance should be distributed in the return of the supplemented final dividend, subject to conditions at the time of the declaration in March. Looking ahead to FY21, management sees notable Fleet growth opportunities post-COVID and is flagging an extra c.£1m investment – mainly in sales & marketing – with a new focus on revenue expansion, and we expect to see the benefits of that in FY22. The CFO, Dan Mendis, will supervise this Fleet expansion, moving to the role of Group Commercial Director while Emily Rees joins to replace him in April. We adjust our FY21 forecasts accordingly and issue FY22 expectations for growth. With the business well on track, we raise our TP from 435p to 450p.
Companies: Quartix Holdings Plc
iEnergizer announced the proposed payment of a special dividend worth 49.4p ($0.668) per share. The group has stated the stock will go ex-div on 14th January 2021, with a pay date of 5th February 2021. At a total value of £94m ($127m), this dividend represents a significant payout for shareholders, c.13% of Group's market cap of £730m. We acknowledge this to be a clear signal of confidence in the growth trajectory and current operations.
Companies: iEnergizer Limited
Instem has delivered a positive trading update for the year to 31 December 2020 – revenue growth was “in excess of 11%”, suggesting a performance in line with our estimates, and net cash appears to have ended the year extremely strongly, with a figure of £26.7m vs our expectation of £22.4m.
Companies: Instem plc
Instem has delivered another year of double digit revenue growth, in line with expectations. Progress has been made across all three business streams, buoyed by strong demand from new and existing customers. A key highlight is cash generation, with Y/E net cash £3.2m better than expectations at £26.7m (pre-IFRS16). The outlook remains positive, with further organic growth opportunities in areas such as SEND exploitation and Informatics. The company remains in active discussions with a number of acquisition targets following the £15.0m fundraise in July. The valuation remains extremely undemanding and we continue to see significant upside potential for a business with multiple organic and acquisitive growth opportunities.
Touchstar is a supplier of mobile data computing solutions and managed services to a variety of industrial sectors. The group has this morning released a year-end update, pointing to the fact that the Board expects to report a profitable outcome for the year (H1 2020A PBT £130k, PAT £150k). Importantly, the positive cash generation seen in H1 2020A has continued into H2, with Touchstar ending the year with a net cash position of £1.6m (gross cash £1.9m), a further increase of £300k from that reported at 30th June.
Companies: Touchstar plc
Cornish Metals (TSX-V: CUSN) intends to list on AIM. The Company is proposing to raise £5 million by way of private placement of new Common Shares (the "Fundraising") to advance the United Downs copper-tin project. The Company expects that Admission will become effective in February 2021. The Company's Common Shares will continue to be listed and trade on the TSX-V in Canada. Further media reports that Dr Martens, the British Boot brand is planning an IPO on the LSE. It is currently owned by PE group, Permira who is expected to sell down its stake at the IPO. March 2020 YE the group had revenues of £672m and EBITDA of £184m. Deal size TBC. VH Global Sustainable Energy Opportunities plc, a closed-ended investment Company focused on making sustainable energy infrastructure investments, today announces intends to launch an initial public offering of shares on the Official List (Premium) of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Due by Early Feb. Moonpig, the digital greeting card company, is planning an IPO with a potential valuation of £1bln, according to multiple media reports. Further details expected to be announced over the next two weeks.
Companies: ZPHR PANR PRSM SENS CYAN G4M ITX CRCL FEN ZIN
Material acceleration of strategic plan
Companies: MelodyVR Group PLC
Crimson Tide has reported a strong set of H1 results evidencing very strong sales momentum backed by long-term contracts and cash flow. H1 sales grew by 40% and EPS by 154%. Net cash has improved to £0.8m at June 2020 from nil at December 2019. The strategic focus on transportation and supermarkets is working well, partnerships are improving routes to market, and there is growing traction from investments in innovation. We have left our forecasts unchanged for now, but recognise positive pressure and have upgraded our target price from 3.1p to 4.3p. We reiterate our view that Crimson Tide’s valuation will be dictated by its ability to convert the significant opportunity rather than short-term metrics. H1 results show the group is nicely on track to do exactly that.
Companies: Crimson Tide Plc
Following Fonix successfully raising £45m through an oversubscribed IPO on 12 October, we initiate our coverage with a target price of 150p. The investment case is focused upon Fonix leveraging its proprietary, cloud-based platform to expand with existing clients and win new clients within a robust UK phone-paid services market. The structural strength of Fonix’s platform is demonstrated by Fonix experiencing no churn from major customers in the past six years, which reflects that Fonix benefits from strategic integration and strong relationships with its clients. Fonix’s FY20 gross profit and EBITDA grew by +22% and +36% respectively, and we conservatively forecast +11-12% EBITDA and EPS growth in FY21 and FY22. On 12m forward EV/EBITDA of 10x and an EFCF yield of 7%, Fonix looks considerably undervalued compared to AIM payment and finnCap Tech 40 peers that are trading on 12m fwd EV/EBITDA of 17-20x with 7-17% EBITDA growth, and EFCF yields of 1-3%. We base our 150p target price on 15x FY22 EV/EBITDA or a 5% FY22 EFCF yield, and look forward to Fonix’s trading update in early 2021.
Companies: Fonix Mobile PLC
It’s often said that ‘Rome wasn’t built in a day’. What’s less well appreciated is that many international capitals could literally become ‘ghost towns’ overnight, if attacked by terrorists, rogue nations &/or organised criminals, who successfully detonated a ‘dirty bomb’.
It has been a year the likes of which we have never seen before, and hope never to see again. The description of the impact of the CV19 pandemic as K-shaped certainly feels accurate, with some sectors being well placed to benefit from the creative disruption that has engulfed the world, accelerating structural changes, while others through no fault of their own have been severely impacted. This has been the case for the Dowgate portfolio of corporate clients, with our quoted clients falling into three groups. The first, comprising Cambridge Cognition, GRC, The Panoply, S4 Capital and Water Intelligence have on average seen their share prices double this year as structural changes accelerated by CV19 have been accompanied by strong execution. The second, comprising Franchise Brands, OTAQ and SEEEN, have experienced share price declines averaging a third as their businesses have either been directly impacted by CV19 or their growth aspirations curtailed. The final group comprises those companies which have been bid for this year, namely Be Heard, Hunters Property, Huntsworth and Reach4Entertainment. Looking into 2021, we expect continued strong performance from the first group and a rebound in the second as the world returns to normal. Finally, having completed Series A/B rounds for a range of private companies this year, we hope to bring these entrepreneur-led, growth companies to market in 2021.
Companies: COG FRAN GRC OTAQ TPX SFOR SEEN WATR