With an unfavorable macro environment, STKS posted a year over year revenue drop of 7.1% to $180.2 million in 3Q:25 versus our forecast of $189.3 million.
Along with a lower than expected restaurant level margin, earnings also trailed our projection, even after adjusting for a $59.1 million non-cash tax valuation allowance.
We are encouraged by improved sales trends and increased holiday bookings so far in 4Q:25, as well as management's efforts to optimize operations, including planned conversions from Grill Concept units to either STK or Benihana.
All in, we now estimate a loss of $0.77 per share in 2025 (was $0.62 per share) will be followed by a loss of $0.43 per share in 2026 (was $0.34 per share) before EPS of $0.28 in 2027.
Our moderate risk rating factors in the expected earnings gains and better cash flow in 2026-2027 along with expected balance sheet improvements which assume a decline of total debt to total capital to 74% by the end of 2027, from 85% in 3Q:25.
07 Nov 2025
3Q:25 Was A Tough Quarter; We Expect Better Results In 4Q:25-2027, As Same-Store Sales Trends Improve And STKS Further Optimizes Its Operations; Maintain $6 Price Target
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3Q:25 Was A Tough Quarter; We Expect Better Results In 4Q:25-2027, As Same-Store Sales Trends Improve And STKS Further Optimizes Its Operations; Maintain $6 Price Target
ONE GROUP HOSPITALITY INC TH (STKS:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
07 Nov 2025 -
Author:
Anthony C. Lebiedzinski -
Pages:
10 -
With an unfavorable macro environment, STKS posted a year over year revenue drop of 7.1% to $180.2 million in 3Q:25 versus our forecast of $189.3 million.
Along with a lower than expected restaurant level margin, earnings also trailed our projection, even after adjusting for a $59.1 million non-cash tax valuation allowance.
We are encouraged by improved sales trends and increased holiday bookings so far in 4Q:25, as well as management's efforts to optimize operations, including planned conversions from Grill Concept units to either STK or Benihana.
All in, we now estimate a loss of $0.77 per share in 2025 (was $0.62 per share) will be followed by a loss of $0.43 per share in 2026 (was $0.34 per share) before EPS of $0.28 in 2027.
Our moderate risk rating factors in the expected earnings gains and better cash flow in 2026-2027 along with expected balance sheet improvements which assume a decline of total debt to total capital to 74% by the end of 2027, from 85% in 3Q:25.