29 Dec 2025
Reduce 2026 EPS Estimate To $2.53 From $3.07; Maintain $31 Price Target And Moderate Risk Rating
We reduce our forecast for ARLP's 2026 and 2027 revenue due to lower prices for coal. With lower forecasted revenue, we reduce our 2026 EPU (earnings per L.P. unit) estimate to $2.53 from $3.07 and our 2027 EPU estimate to $2.60 from $3.24. We maintain our $31 price target and Moderate risk rating.
ARLP's coal production volumes continue to recover. Production has rebounded from the lows reached last winter in both the Illinois Basin and Appalachia.
ARLP has already begun booking 2027 coal deliveries. Bookings for 2027 are encouraging in both pricing and volume.
ARLP will likely take a loss on its bitcoin holdings this quarter. ARLP uses surplus electrical power to mine bitcoin and holds the bitcoin on its balance sheet. Bitcoin holdings totaled $65 million as of September 30. ARLP's bitcoin holding is fair valued at each quarter end and bitcoin prices are down 23% from the last valuation. We expect the company to take a fair value loss of about $15 million in Q4:25.
U.S. oil prices are below $60/barrel and are forecast to remain at low levels in 2026. We have modeled a 5% reduction in royalty revenue in 2026 due to lower oil prices.
ARLP's balance sheet shows ample liquidity, and a modest debt to capital ratio of 20%. ARLP's debt is rated BB- by Standard & Poors.
We maintain our $31 price target and our Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying about an 11x multiple to our $2.53 forecast for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected per unit cash distributions in the year. Previously we applied a 10x multiple to our prior $3.07 2026 EPU estimate to reach the same target. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by the company's low leverage level of 20% and high interest coverage ratio of 8x.
ARLP maintains ample liquidity on its balance sheet, with a current ratio of 1.9. Debt to total capital stands at 20%. ARLP's debt is rated BB- by Standard & Poors. Two small loans totaling $90 million mature in 2028. $400 million in Senior Notes mature in 2029.
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Reduce 2026 EPS Estimate To $2.53 From $3.07; Maintain $31 Price Target And Moderate Risk Rating
Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
29 Dec 2025 -
Author:
Michael Mathison -
Pages:
10 -
We reduce our forecast for ARLP's 2026 and 2027 revenue due to lower prices for coal. With lower forecasted revenue, we reduce our 2026 EPU (earnings per L.P. unit) estimate to $2.53 from $3.07 and our 2027 EPU estimate to $2.60 from $3.24. We maintain our $31 price target and Moderate risk rating.
ARLP's coal production volumes continue to recover. Production has rebounded from the lows reached last winter in both the Illinois Basin and Appalachia.
ARLP has already begun booking 2027 coal deliveries. Bookings for 2027 are encouraging in both pricing and volume.
ARLP will likely take a loss on its bitcoin holdings this quarter. ARLP uses surplus electrical power to mine bitcoin and holds the bitcoin on its balance sheet. Bitcoin holdings totaled $65 million as of September 30. ARLP's bitcoin holding is fair valued at each quarter end and bitcoin prices are down 23% from the last valuation. We expect the company to take a fair value loss of about $15 million in Q4:25.
U.S. oil prices are below $60/barrel and are forecast to remain at low levels in 2026. We have modeled a 5% reduction in royalty revenue in 2026 due to lower oil prices.
ARLP's balance sheet shows ample liquidity, and a modest debt to capital ratio of 20%. ARLP's debt is rated BB- by Standard & Poors.
We maintain our $31 price target and our Moderate risk rating. We derive our price target by applying about an 11x multiple to our $2.53 forecast for 2026 EPU, plus $2.40 in expected per unit cash distributions in the year. Previously we applied a 10x multiple to our prior $3.07 2026 EPU estimate to reach the same target. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by the company's low leverage level of 20% and high interest coverage ratio of 8x.
ARLP maintains ample liquidity on its balance sheet, with a current ratio of 1.9. Debt to total capital stands at 20%. ARLP's debt is rated BB- by Standard & Poors. Two small loans totaling $90 million mature in 2028. $400 million in Senior Notes mature in 2029.