GLDD is poised to turn cash flow positive in 2025 for the first time since 2020, following five years of heavy capital reinvestment.
With the newbuild vessel spending program on track to conclude in 1H:26, we anticipate significantly lower capex to drive 2026 cash flow improvement, with acceleration expected in 2027.
GLDD's four newest hopper dredges average eight years in age (dredges last 40+ years). With replacements already in hand for its two older vessels, we remain confident that growth capex is truly winding down by 1H:26.
We trim our 4Q:25 EPS by $0.03 to $0.20 (from $0.23) to reflect a $3 million call premium related to the elimination of its second lien term loan as part of its recent debt swap (first outlined in our October 29, 2025, note).
GLDD held net debt of $403 million at 3Q:25. Management has stated its first priority for cash flow in 2026 will be towards debt reduction.
Our $16 price target continues to be based on about 16x our 2026 EPS estimate of $1.03.
20 Jan 2026
2026 Outlook: With Its Reinvestment Program Concluding, We Expect Cash Flow Improvement In 2026, With Acceleration In 2027; Maintain $16 Price Target
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2026 Outlook: With Its Reinvestment Program Concluding, We Expect Cash Flow Improvement In 2026, With Acceleration In 2027; Maintain $16 Price Target
GREAT LAKES DREDGE & DOCK CO (GLDD:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
20 Jan 2026 -
Author:
Julio Romero -
Pages:
11 -
GLDD is poised to turn cash flow positive in 2025 for the first time since 2020, following five years of heavy capital reinvestment.
With the newbuild vessel spending program on track to conclude in 1H:26, we anticipate significantly lower capex to drive 2026 cash flow improvement, with acceleration expected in 2027.
GLDD's four newest hopper dredges average eight years in age (dredges last 40+ years). With replacements already in hand for its two older vessels, we remain confident that growth capex is truly winding down by 1H:26.
We trim our 4Q:25 EPS by $0.03 to $0.20 (from $0.23) to reflect a $3 million call premium related to the elimination of its second lien term loan as part of its recent debt swap (first outlined in our October 29, 2025, note).
GLDD held net debt of $403 million at 3Q:25. Management has stated its first priority for cash flow in 2026 will be towards debt reduction.
Our $16 price target continues to be based on about 16x our 2026 EPS estimate of $1.03.