
31 Jul 2025
Solid 2Q:25 Results Pale Against Uncertain Near Term Order Timing; Opportunity Pipeline Grows, Even As Volume Ramp Is Pushed Out; Operational Performance Improved; Maintain $10 Target
Orion reported 2Q:25 results that bested our expectations, led by a third consecutive quarter of Marine segment margin outperformance on disciplined and efficient project closeouts.
Backlog decreased sequentially by 11% to $746 million (book-to-bill 0.5x), as private sector customers involved in public-private projects delayed decision making on projects amid macroeconomic and tariff uncertainties.
Guidance was reaffirmed for 2025, with revenue of $800-$850 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $42-$46 million.
We think the uncertainty with regards to the timing of order intake led to yesterday's 15% pullback in shares (versus the less than 1% decline of the Russell 2000).
We lower our 2026 estimates to better reflect lumpiness in award timing that likely pushes the expected volume ramp to unfold over 2026-2027 rather than just 2026.
Still, we view Orion's growing sales opportunity set as largely intact, as evidenced by the increased opportunity pipeline ($18 billion, up from $16 billion in 1Q:25) and positive demand commentary.
Post quarter-end, ORN paid down $10 million of revolver debt. Our moderate risk rating reflects ORN's improved financial profile.
We maintain a $10 price target, based on 22x our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $0.47. (Previously we valued ORN shares at 22x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $0.46 to derive the same $10 price target).

Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Solid 2Q:25 Results Pale Against Uncertain Near Term Order Timing; Opportunity Pipeline Grows, Even As Volume Ramp Is Pushed Out; Operational Performance Improved; Maintain $10 Target
Orion reported 2Q:25 results that bested our expectations, led by a third consecutive quarter of Marine segment margin outperformance on disciplined and efficient project closeouts.
Backlog decreased sequentially by 11% to $746 million (book-to-bill 0.5x), as private sector customers involved in public-private projects delayed decision making on projects amid macroeconomic and tariff uncertainties.
Guidance was reaffirmed for 2025, with revenue of $800-$850 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $42-$46 million.
We think the uncertainty with regards to the timing of order intake led to yesterday's 15% pullback in shares (versus the less than 1% decline of the Russell 2000).
We lower our 2026 estimates to better reflect lumpiness in award timing that likely pushes the expected volume ramp to unfold over 2026-2027 rather than just 2026.
Still, we view Orion's growing sales opportunity set as largely intact, as evidenced by the increased opportunity pipeline ($18 billion, up from $16 billion in 1Q:25) and positive demand commentary.
Post quarter-end, ORN paid down $10 million of revolver debt. Our moderate risk rating reflects ORN's improved financial profile.
We maintain a $10 price target, based on 22x our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $0.47. (Previously we valued ORN shares at 22x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $0.46 to derive the same $10 price target).