3Q:25 results were lower than we expected, driven by lower Rail, Technologies and Services (RTS) sales and lower segment gross margins from Infrastructure Solutions.
Positives in the quarter include ongoing SG&A benefits (which boosted EPS by $0.04 in the quarter, relative to our forecast), ongoing momentum in RTS orders (RTS backlog grew 7% sequentially and 58% year over year), and implied 4Q:25 organic sales growth of 25% at the midpoint.
All told, FSTR's sales will continue to have variability quarter to quarter, but we are encouraged by improving profitability and demand and structurally improved free cash flow (used to repay debt and buyback shares in 3Q:25).
We now model 2025 EPS of $1.15 (from $1.19) and 2026 EPS of $1.78 (from $2.05).
Our moderate risk rating balances FSTR's modestly leveraged balance sheet and ongoing material weakness in reporting controls, with its capital-light model and a structurally improving free cash flow profile.
We maintain our $31 price target, now based on 15x our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $2.09 (previously based on our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $2.05), as we shift our valuation horizon to 2027.
04 Nov 2025
3Q:25 Missed, Yet Rail Backlog And Revised Guidance Imply Organic Sales Growth of 25% In 4Q:25; Temper Estimates, Maintain $31 Price Target
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3Q:25 Missed, Yet Rail Backlog And Revised Guidance Imply Organic Sales Growth of 25% In 4Q:25; Temper Estimates, Maintain $31 Price Target
3Q:25 results were lower than we expected, driven by lower Rail, Technologies and Services (RTS) sales and lower segment gross margins from Infrastructure Solutions.
Positives in the quarter include ongoing SG&A benefits (which boosted EPS by $0.04 in the quarter, relative to our forecast), ongoing momentum in RTS orders (RTS backlog grew 7% sequentially and 58% year over year), and implied 4Q:25 organic sales growth of 25% at the midpoint.
All told, FSTR's sales will continue to have variability quarter to quarter, but we are encouraged by improving profitability and demand and structurally improved free cash flow (used to repay debt and buyback shares in 3Q:25).
We now model 2025 EPS of $1.15 (from $1.19) and 2026 EPS of $1.78 (from $2.05).
Our moderate risk rating balances FSTR's modestly leveraged balance sheet and ongoing material weakness in reporting controls, with its capital-light model and a structurally improving free cash flow profile.
We maintain our $31 price target, now based on 15x our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $2.09 (previously based on our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $2.05), as we shift our valuation horizon to 2027.