We are lowering our estimates following Gibraltar's preannounced preliminary 4Q:25 ranges for select line items.
ROCK's preliminary 4Q:25 sales and adjusted EPS ranges have been downwardly revised by 10% and 32% at the respective midpoints. The company cited customer destocking in Residential and project timing in Agtech.
We lower our 4Q:25 and 2025 estimates to the lower end of the new guidance ranges. We also lower our 2026-2027 sales forecasts to account for the potential for further sales pushouts.
While the lowered guidance disappoints, we see some positives in healthier channel inventory and relative outperformance of the broader Residential market.
ROCK noted it ended 4Q:25 with cash of $115 million, supporting our moderate risk rating. Following the Omnimax deal (we assume closing at year-end 2026 for modeling purposes), we model pro forma leverage of 3.7x (4.2x ex-cost synergies).
Our downwardly revised $68 price target (was $70) is based on a steady 13x our reduced 2027 EPS estimate of $5.20 (from $5.40).
22 Jan 2026
Preliminary 4Q:25 Results Below Expectations, Given Customer Destocking and Project Timing; Reduce Estimates Through 2027; Lower Price Target to $68 (From $70)
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Preliminary 4Q:25 Results Below Expectations, Given Customer Destocking and Project Timing; Reduce Estimates Through 2027; Lower Price Target to $68 (From $70)
We are lowering our estimates following Gibraltar's preannounced preliminary 4Q:25 ranges for select line items.
ROCK's preliminary 4Q:25 sales and adjusted EPS ranges have been downwardly revised by 10% and 32% at the respective midpoints. The company cited customer destocking in Residential and project timing in Agtech.
We lower our 4Q:25 and 2025 estimates to the lower end of the new guidance ranges. We also lower our 2026-2027 sales forecasts to account for the potential for further sales pushouts.
While the lowered guidance disappoints, we see some positives in healthier channel inventory and relative outperformance of the broader Residential market.
ROCK noted it ended 4Q:25 with cash of $115 million, supporting our moderate risk rating. Following the Omnimax deal (we assume closing at year-end 2026 for modeling purposes), we model pro forma leverage of 3.7x (4.2x ex-cost synergies).
Our downwardly revised $68 price target (was $70) is based on a steady 13x our reduced 2027 EPS estimate of $5.20 (from $5.40).