3Q:25 EPS trailed our forecast by 10%, driven by higher-than-expected cost pressures that weighed on results, which more than offset record quarterly revenue (which missed our sales forecast by a much narrower 1%).
Notable positives in 3Q:25 include record backlog of $1.3 billion (up 6% sequentially and 21% year over year) and record share repurchases of $30 million.
TGLS lowered its 2025 guidance, while also providing a preliminary 2026 outlook of double-digit sales growth, supported by its backlog and momentum on the company's U.S. market penetration initiatives (new showrooms, vinyl windows).
We remain positive on TGLS's ability to execute on its multiyear sales trajectory but reset our cost assumptions, assuming pressures persist into 2026, leading to lower year-over-year gross margins. We now model EPS of $3.80 (from $4.14) in 2025 and $4.35 (from $4.92) in 2026.
Our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $5.00 embeds 10% and 15% sales and EPS growth, respectively.
TGLS remains in a net cash position, and its recently upsized revolver has $245 million of availability, supporting our moderate risk rating.
Our lower profit outlook takes our price target to $74 (from $84), based on a steady 17x our revised 2026 EPS estimate of $4.35 (from $4.92).
10 Nov 2025
3Q:25 EPS Missed On Cost Pressures; Lower Estimates And Price Target On TGLS To $74 (From $84) As We Assume Margin Headwinds Persist Through 2026
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3Q:25 EPS Missed On Cost Pressures; Lower Estimates And Price Target On TGLS To $74 (From $84) As We Assume Margin Headwinds Persist Through 2026
3Q:25 EPS trailed our forecast by 10%, driven by higher-than-expected cost pressures that weighed on results, which more than offset record quarterly revenue (which missed our sales forecast by a much narrower 1%).
Notable positives in 3Q:25 include record backlog of $1.3 billion (up 6% sequentially and 21% year over year) and record share repurchases of $30 million.
TGLS lowered its 2025 guidance, while also providing a preliminary 2026 outlook of double-digit sales growth, supported by its backlog and momentum on the company's U.S. market penetration initiatives (new showrooms, vinyl windows).
We remain positive on TGLS's ability to execute on its multiyear sales trajectory but reset our cost assumptions, assuming pressures persist into 2026, leading to lower year-over-year gross margins. We now model EPS of $3.80 (from $4.14) in 2025 and $4.35 (from $4.92) in 2026.
Our newly introduced 2027 EPS estimate of $5.00 embeds 10% and 15% sales and EPS growth, respectively.
TGLS remains in a net cash position, and its recently upsized revolver has $245 million of availability, supporting our moderate risk rating.
Our lower profit outlook takes our price target to $74 (from $84), based on a steady 17x our revised 2026 EPS estimate of $4.35 (from $4.92).