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We continue to believe that IMB is not necessarily a short-term strategic investment given the fact that the company is entering the second year of its “strengthening phase” with further investments which should weigh on margins, so no major improvement in the shareholder return.
Companies: Imperial Brands PLC
IMB unveiled a five-year transformation plan that would see it increase investments in its top five cigarette markets, bolster its sales force, and take a more “disciplined” investment approach with its fledgling vaping venture. Overall, the announcements have improved the group’s credibility, but the lack of upcoming catalysts slightly disappoint. Not to mention, the disappointment also around the lack of an immediate share buy-back. The re-rating vs. tobacco peers in not for now.
Mixed feelings: the NGP beat should be welcome, as well as the transparency about FY21, but we believe that the decline in NGP investments should be a brake in the future and we are still concerned about the lower price/mix at IMB’s level.
Disappointing H1 driven by NGP. Reducing investments in this category was the company’s choice, but we believe it is a bad mid-term strategy. The dividend cut has finally shown increasing weaknesses vs. peers during the crisis.
Troubles remain during the CEO transition process, with FY20 guidance revised downwards, due mainly to the US vaping crackdown. With low visibility on future earnings, cash flow and return to shareholders, stay away from IMB for now.
Within this challenging year, the group reported a mixed set of FY19 results. While Tobacco remained resilient, the NGP disappointed as the category delivered lower than expected results, despite the group investing a lot in its development. It negatively weighed on operating profitability, which was actually -1.6% below consensus (but higher than our estimates). We see the more cautious guidance as more realistic, which is not a bad thing. The ambitions were previously too high on the NGP categ
The challenging NGP market in the USA and change in expectations of the results in Africa, Asia and Australia (AAA) has pushed IMB to warn on its next FY results. This is no major surprise, as we were already aware of the regularity issues in the US. While NGP products currently represent a small proportion of sales (between 5-10%), it is in this area that IMB focuses all its investments and sees its next growth driver.
The company posted strong H2 results with a better than expected operating margin. The results were reassuring and suggest that the company has a clear view about possible threats and opportunities in the troubled tobacco space and how to navigate round them.
The numbers are slightly better than expected. We believe that the divestment announcement will particularly please investors, as it represents a significant capital to be redeployed to maximise the company’s value.
Imperial Brands (IMB LN, BUY, T/P 5100p) announced a solid set of FY2017 results. Tobacco volume fell -4.1% less than the forecast -4.8%, total adjusted operating profit was in line with consensus at £3.8bn and adjusted EPS was 267p slightly below the 271p consensus estimate. Share momentum in priority markets drove H2 volumes.
FY update: tobacco’s net revenue was down 2.6% at constant currency (cons.-3.3%, H2: +0.1%) and +8.2% on a reported basis (FX: +10.8%) with volumes down 4.1% (cons. -4.8%, H2: -2.6%) and the price/mix +1.5% (in H2, industry volumes were down 4.5%).
Growth Brands’ volume rose by +5.5% and gained an 80bp market share.
By market and at constant FX, Growth Markets’ net revenue was flat at -0.2% (weaker H2 in Russia), whereas Return Markets recorded -4.5% (impacted by EU TPD and investments). The U
Imperial Brands (IMB LN, BUY, T/P 5100p) released a trading statement this morning, which confirmed market expectations of around £8½bn for full year sales revenue. The company is due to release preliminary FY2017 results on 7th November 2017.
Imperial Brands (IMB LN, BUY, T/P 5100p), whose flagship next generation product and e-cigarette brand is BLU, should receive some encouragement from today’s NHS Scotland release. NHS Scotland appears overall in favour of ecigarettes being used as a cessation product – i.e. an alternative to combustibles. NHS Scotland’s comments echo those recently made by Public Health England that e-cigarettes are up to 95% less harmful than combustibles.
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H1'22 Interim Results: Caution Ahead!
Companies: Frontier Developments Plc
Unilever’s bid for GSK’s Consumer HealthCare division is causing a stir, as it seems totally unreasonable. The group was asked to move on portfolio rotation, but definitely not to be so ambitious at the risk of penalising shareholders.
Companies: Unilever PLC
FY21A Results were well flagged in November’s trading update. Today’s announcement reveals the Group is now debt free and reiterates its intention to return to the dividend list in the current period. Shoe Zone has a clear and well-defined plan to transform its store portfolio and grow its digital offer through its shoehub platform, which we believe will deliver a well-balanced retail model that can win market share and drive profitable growth.
Companies: Shoe Zone PLC
Genflow Biosciences, a UK-based biotechnology company focused on longevity and the development of therapies to counteract the effects of aging and diseases associated with advanced age intends to float on the Main Market (Standard). The Company will become the first longevity biotechnology firm to list in Europe. Genflow has raised £3.7m in an oversubscribed placing, conditional upon admission becoming effective. The flotation will value Genflow at approximately £23.4m.
SuperSeed Capital Limited
Companies: RQIH ABDP ACRL HAYD IQG
Accrol has released a trading update highlighting further inflationary cost pressures guiding FY22E adjusted EBITDA to be significantly below FY21A.
Companies: Accrol Group Holdings plc
Companies: Science In Sport Plc
Companies: MJ Gleeson PLC
Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H122 results reflect lower year-on-year revenue growth after a very strong FY21, as expected, with positive comments on new launches, specifically the third edition of Age of Sigmar. Ongoing internal investment to support future growth and new external cost pressures led to a reduction in operating profit pre-royalties, which was more than offset by the notable increase in royalty income. As previously flagged, the shape of our FY22 forecasts has changed to reflect
Companies: Games Workshop Group PLC
Sanderson Design Group (SDG) has announced a trading update for the current financial year ending 31 January 2022 (FY22E). Strong performances, most notably from the group’s manufacturing and licensing activities, have resulted in the Board’s expectation of adjusted profit before tax of at least £12.0m, compared with the £7.1m delivered in FY21. This equates to an increase of at least 70% over FY21. Our upgrade to £12.0m represents a 14% increase on our previous adjusted PBT forecast of £10.6m.
Companies: Sanderson Design Group PLC
Companies: Frasers Group PLC
Trackwise Designs has developed a proprietary, proven technology, IHT, for manufacturing extremely long, flexible circuits that can replace conventional wiring harnesses. This disruptive technology is applicable to many industries including electric vehicles (EVs), medical devices and aerospace. Since listing in July 2018, Trackwise has invested substantially in capacity, acquiring Stevenage Circuits in March 2020 and a new site in Stonehouse in April 2021. The new site is scheduled to commence
Companies: Trackwise Designs Plc
Accrol has released H1 results, which are 7% below last year’s level at the adjusted EBITDA level at £5.0m despite significant supply chain disruption and cost escalation. We made our earnings adjustments in the trading update last week but reduce our net debt forecasts by 13% to £23.9m reflecting lower capital expenditure investment. We believe more can be done to reduce this through working capital efficiencies, but we have left our assumptions on this unchanged for now.