GES: Snapping the Store: Raising the Fashion Bar for Spring; Reiterate Buy

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess? stores in the Metro NYC area and Long Island. We believe, with Spring now beginning to fully flow into stores, Guess? has continued to pivot their overall looks and focus even more on key fashion items, with an increased emphasis on activewear, dresses, and accessories, particularly handbags and footwear and men's accessories. Further, the company is experimenting in select stores to limit overall sizes on

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Spring, Activewear, Swim Strong

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. With Spring now in full bloom, Express has been rolling out new looks for the season, from a major activewear collection, an expansion of Body Contour, new men's swim, shorts for both men and women and seasonal suiting and dresses for the next key event or wedding. Further, the offerings are keyed by an increased focus on mix and match core basics, offering strong ver

GES; 4Q Review: Best Still in Store for GUESS?; Reiterate Buy & Raising PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating on GES, raising our price target to $37 (from $32.50) and rolling out FY26 projections after Guess? ended FY24 with a strong 4Q which easily beat both top and bottom line Street expectations and announced a $2.25 per share special dividend. Further, initial FY25 projections, which incorporate the acquisition of Rag & Bone, handily beat Street top line projections and bracket bottom line expectations, even as Guess? adds resources to drive Rag & Bone to higher ov

GES: 4Q Preview: Showing the Way; Reiterate Buy Rating, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and projections for Guess? with the company announcing 4QFY24 (January) results after the close on Wednesday. We believe management remained conservative in their 4Q projections, already incorporating a tough domestic environment, which should allow the company to achieve top and bottom line results in their projected range. Further, we expect Guess? to incorporate multiple positive drivers in their initial FY25 guidance, including the recen

GES: Snapping the Story; Rolling Out Spring Winners; Reiterate Buy & $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $32.50 price target for Guess? after visiting stores in the NYC metro area and Long Island. We believe Guess? is rolling out strong initial fashion statements for Spring, from dresses to light hues and jackets, women's and men's activewear and further distortions for key accessories. For men's, new short sleeve shirts and accessories expansion are helping to drive traffic. Further, with the stores clean, the brand is fully ready for an early Spr

EXPR: Snapping the Store: Clearing & Gearing

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. With the stores receiving early Spring shipments, the focus is on the final clearance of older goods and setting up for the new Spring Season. The new Spring season for women is setting up for lighter colors, continued high levels of versatility, and further expansion of key categories such as denim and Body Contour and women's suiting, while for men the focus is on t

GES: Rag & Bone an Auspicious First Acquisition; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and raising our projections to reflect the announced acquisition of leading premium ($195+) denim player rag & bone by Guess? and a joint venture with leading brand licensor WHP Global. We view this acquisition, Guess?' first, as an accretive winner, offering multiple (and material) expansion opportunities which leverage Guess?' strong international presence, infrastructure, category expansion and licensing ability and position as a leading

GES: Snapping the Store: Picking the Key Winners; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and projections after visiting Guess? stores in Long Island and the Metro New York City region. We believe Guess? maintained planned discounting levels during the Holiday season, made strong winning fashion bets on active wear, luggage, handbags, footwear and other accessories and denim. Inventories, with the exception of outerwear, were in solid shape and should, after end of season sales, be clean for Spring. Further, the company has alrea

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Clearing Out for a New Year; Reiterate Buy Rating, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut. While we believe the Holiday offerings, especially on the women's side, were solid in terms of looks and versatility, and the company was not overly focused on the tough outerwear market, Express management made a decision to materially clear out the stores back rooms, which has resulted in material markdowns and inventory on the store floo

GES: 2024 Signposts: Remain Focused on Winning; Reiterate Buy Rating, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and projections for Guess? as we look ahead into 2024. We believe Guess? remains well positioned to continue to register strong top and bottom line results, as the company continues their international expansion, raises the overall fashion bar, maintains strong inventory integrity, further realigns their licensing portfolio and launches the Guess? Jeans contemporary line. Further, we believe there remains opportunities to continue to upgrade

EXPR: 2024 Signposts: Creating the New Baseline; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Express as we enter the new year. With FY24 setting up as the first complete fiscal year under new CEO Stewart Glendinning, we look for Express to begin to leverage the gains from material cost saving programs, continue to expand the relationship with brand licensor WHP Global, further demonstrate the strength of the Bonobos acquisition and re-energize the Express brand to once again register consistent, profitable results.

GES: Winning the Fashion Battle; Reiterate Buy Rating, $32.50 Price Target

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $32.50 price target for Guess? after visiting stores in Metropolitan New York City and Long Island. We believe, with a solid Black Friday promotion, key winning strategies to expand the activewear, footwear and outerwear categories and strong accessories driven revenue, Guess? was able to remain strategic throughout the Holiday season and, we believe, undertake the promotional calendar they originally anticipated. As such, we remain confident in

EXPR: Getting Clean as Near Peak Xmas; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. We believe Express has continued to aggressively reduce inventory levels and potential product overhang into 2024, as the company takes advantage of a strong women's offering, reduced dependence on heavy seasonal items (i.e. outerwear), new categories (loungewear), improved accessories offerings, and strong value and versatility, all of which have somewhat offset what

EXPR: 3Q Review; Cleaning Up the Mess; Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $20

We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to a materially weaker than expected 4Q. Further, with inventories heavier than expected ahead of the Holiday season (up 14% YoY, or flat if Bonobos is excluded) we expect the season to remain aggressively promotional and, in the near term, offset any gains from cost savings and other S,G&A reductions (and probably spill over into Q1FY24). That said, we c

EXPR; 3Q Preview: New Management Set to Introduce Themselves; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $40 price target and projections for Express with the company announcing 3QFY23 (October) results before the open on Thursday. With a new Chief Executive Officer and Head Merchant and the Chief Financial Officer recently resigning for another opportunity, the 3Q call will be the first pronouncements from new management. We believe the company will continue with the ongoing program of cost savings (up to $80 million in FY23, $120 million in FY24 and $200 million

Surface Transforms - New guidance – forecasts under review

Surface Transforms has issued new revenue guidance for FY24, with the company now expecting revenues in the range £17.5-22m. We are withdrawing our previous forecasts for FY24 and withdrawing our price target while we review the impact of the new guidance.

Surface Transforms plc (SCE LN) - Forecasts and valuation withdrawn

We note the regulatory announcement this morning from Surface Transforms and withdraw our estimates and valuation, pending conversations with management.

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Robust margin and cash performance

Surface Transforms (SCE LN) - Obstacles removed for higher production

Surface has issued a brief Q1 update. Production will ramp-up this year as final new equipment is installed, and manufacturing teething problems recede.

Initial Equity Trading Comments - 19 February 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

Dowlais Group - Motoring forward

Dowlais Group’s first set of results were ahead of our expectations, with positive cash generation a highlight despite restructuring and demerger costs. Softer automotive markets will limit margin progress in FY24 towards the double-digit target. Despite this, margins of c 6.5% are still ahead of automotive peers, although the shares trade at a significant discount to our implied generic peer-based valuation.

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Zeus Top Picks for 2024 - 2023 review and outlook for 2024

On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div

Morning Note – 4 April 2024

LIBERUM: New Energy Nuggets: Hydrogen - the future is green

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Nexteq - FY23 adj EBITDA +4% ahead, FY24E upgrades of +1-10%

Nexteq’s FY23 results show adjusted EBITDA +4% ahead of the +6% upgrade at the January trading update, record FY23 EFCF of $17.4m, and a confident outlook that leads us to reiterate our FY24E revenue and upgrade FY24E gross profit, adj EBITDA, and EFCF by +1-10%. The strategic focus on higher-margin products and customers reducing elevated inventory levels led FY23 group revenue -5% yoy to $114.3m, with Quixant 6% lower at $69.3m and Densitron 2% lower at $45.1m. Effective supply-chain managemen

Morning Note – 25 March 2024