We increase our price target on ACA shares to $134 (from $130) following 3Q:25 results, where faster-than-anticipated deleveraging appears to have positioned Arcosa to further the portfolio mix shift toward its growth businesses.
3Q:25 sales and EPS were 3% and 14% above our forecast, led by the Engineered Structures segment.
Cash flow conversion was excellent in the quarter, with ACA converting 157% of net income to cash flow in 3Q:25. ACA's leverage ratio at quarter-end 3Q:25 stood at 2.4x (down from 3.7x post-acquisition of Stavola), within its target of 2.0x-2.5x.
Net debt at 3Q:25 stood at $1.4 billion. We model further debt reduction of $50 million in 2026 and $100 million in 2027.
We increase our 2025-2026 estimates, and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $5.40, a 13% increase from 2026E.
Our raised $134 price target (from $130) is based on 28x our upwardly revised 2026 EPS estimate of $4.77 (from $4.65). The solid balance sheet and record of strong cash flow generation support our moderate risk rating.
17 Nov 2025
ACA Reached Its Target Leverage Ratio Two Quarters Ahead Of Schedule; Raise Estimates, Price Target To $134 (From $130)
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ACA Reached Its Target Leverage Ratio Two Quarters Ahead Of Schedule; Raise Estimates, Price Target To $134 (From $130)
We increase our price target on ACA shares to $134 (from $130) following 3Q:25 results, where faster-than-anticipated deleveraging appears to have positioned Arcosa to further the portfolio mix shift toward its growth businesses.
3Q:25 sales and EPS were 3% and 14% above our forecast, led by the Engineered Structures segment.
Cash flow conversion was excellent in the quarter, with ACA converting 157% of net income to cash flow in 3Q:25. ACA's leverage ratio at quarter-end 3Q:25 stood at 2.4x (down from 3.7x post-acquisition of Stavola), within its target of 2.0x-2.5x.
Net debt at 3Q:25 stood at $1.4 billion. We model further debt reduction of $50 million in 2026 and $100 million in 2027.
We increase our 2025-2026 estimates, and introduce our 2027 EPS estimate of $5.40, a 13% increase from 2026E.
Our raised $134 price target (from $130) is based on 28x our upwardly revised 2026 EPS estimate of $4.77 (from $4.65). The solid balance sheet and record of strong cash flow generation support our moderate risk rating.