Auctus on Friday - 03/02/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Drilling commences at Anshof-2 – Drilling at Anshof-2 has started. The well is targeting the field’s possible reserves with an unrisked NAV of A$0.23 per share. A success would open-up the 3C case with an additional A$0.26 per share unrisked NAV. Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.55 per share: High flow and a new discovery at RCE-6. Larger volumes than expected a

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Positive exploration results open multiple new areas of material production growth

• 3Q23 production had already been reported. GeoPark held US$106 mm in cash at the end of September, which is in line with our expectations. • 25-30 feet of hydrocarbon pay were encountered in the Guadalupe formation at the high impact Halcon-1 exploration well at CPO-5. The OWC was not encountered. The Guadalupe formation is one of the producing formations at Llanos-34 and is the reservoir that GeoPark was looking for. The well will now be tested. An appraisal well (Perico-1) will spud adjacent

Auctus on Friday - 20/10/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Two high impact wells to commence drilling by YE23 – ADX is expected to start drilling the Anshof-2 appraisal well in November. The well is targeting 4.9 mmboe possible reserves (net to ADX). Anshof is also estimated to hold 5.5 mmboe net 3C contingent resources (net to ADX). The Anshof-2 well is anticipated to be onstream together with the existing Anshof-3 well in 1H24. The Ansh

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): 39 mboe/d current production. All eyes on Halcon-1

• 3Q23 production of 34,778 boe/d was below our forecasts of 37.3 mboe/d mostly due to a 10 day blockade at Llanos-34 (-~1.8 mboe/d) and slightly lower production at Platanillo (-~400 bbl/d) and CPO-5 (-~300 bbl/d). • Current production stands at ~39 mboe/d including 7.1 mbbl/d at CPO-5 and 24.4 mboe/d at Llanos-34. • Following the recent exploration success at Toritos-1 and Saltador-1, Llanos-123 is now producing 2,140 bbl/d (1,070 bbl/d net to GeoPark). The very rapid exploration to product

Auctus on Friday - 06/10/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; target price of A$0.45 per share: Operating update in Canada – The 3-well Pisces drilling programme has now been completed. The wells have been drilled under budget. The Pisces#10 well is already in production and the production performance is in line with the Pisces#6 and Pisces#7 wells that delivered production significantly above the typical glauconitic production curve. Peak production at these new wells is

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): CPO-5 wells back online. Multiple discoveries in Colombia and Ecuador

• The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now back online. Each well is expected to reach 4,000 bbl/d gross production (8,000 bbl/d gross total, 2,400 bbl/d net to GeoPark). The total gross production of both wells could reach 9,000 bbl/d by YE23. • The Toritos 1 exploration well at LL-123 encountered hydrocarbons in the Guadalupe and Gacheta formations and is now on production at a rate of ~1.4 mbbl/d with 1% water cut. The Saltador 1 well at LL-123 is on production a

Auctus on Friday - 11/08/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.08 per share: A high-quality industry partner in Austria to fund and accelerate Anshof development - ADX is farming out 30% WI in the Anshof discovery to MND. On closing, ADX will hold 50% WI in Anshof. MND will pay ADX ~A$3.2 mm for back costs and long lead items for the Anshof-1 and 2 wells on completion of the transaction. MND will also fund ADX’s share of drilling and completion costs of A$

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Discoveries in Colombia and Ecuador. Important drilling results over coming quarters

• 2Q23 production of 36,581 boe/d and cash at the end of June had already been reported. • The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia continue to be expected to return to production in August. The operator has completed most of the required surface work. GeoPark has re-iterated its FY23 production target of 38.0-40.0 mboe/d. • With contribution from 5-6 new horizontal wells with increasingly long laterals by YE23 and better uptime at Llanos-34, 4Q23 production is expected to

Auctus on Friday - 21/07/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$25 per share: 2Q23 production in line. Adding horizontal wells at Llanos-34 – 2Q23 production of 36,581 boe/d was in line with our expectations with strong performance at Llanos-34, Platanillo and CPO-5, offsetting lower production in Chile and Ecuador. The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now expected to return to production in August (rather than July) when the requ

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): 2Q23 production in line. Adding horizontal wells at Llanos-34

• 2Q23 production of 36,581 boe/d was in line with our expectations with strong performance at Llanos-34, Platanillo and CPO-5, offsetting lower production in Chile and Ecuador. • The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now expected to return to production in August (rather than July) when the required surface facilities are completed. • The company has re-iterated its FY23 production target of 38.0-40.0 mboe/d but the guidance is sensitive to the timing of production

EGY US/LN, HHR AU, GPRK US, PTAL LN/TAL CN, TETY SS, AET LN, ALV CN, BNOR NO, BOE LN, CNE CN, DEC LN, DNO NO, ECHO LN, ECHO LN, ENQ LN, FEC CN, FORZ CN, GENL LN, HBR LN, KOS LN/US, PXT CN, RBD LN, SENX LN, SNM CN, TAO CN, TLOU AU/LN, TXP LN

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$25 per share: Protecting shareholder returns as lower capex offsets delayed production – 1Q23 production of 36,578 boe/d had already been reported. The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now expected to return to production in July (rather than May) when the definitive surface facilities are completed. The facilities are 60-65% complete and there is improved confidence

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Protecting shareholder returns as lower capex offsets delayed production

• 1Q23 production of 36,578 boe/d had already been reported. • The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia are now expected to return to production in July (rather than May) when the definitive surface facilities are completed. The facilities are 60-65% complete and there is improved confidence that date can be achieved. These two wells represent ~2.4-3.3 mbbl/d net to GeoPark. • As a result of this delay and combined with the shut-in production of approximately 400 bopd in C

Auctus on Friday - 14/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella. High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours. The well is heavily choked (17/168) and is still unloading completion fluid (12% water cut). As witnessed at the other RCE wells, production is expected to increase as the well stabilizes. Initial production at RCE-5 is above expe

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d

• 1Q23 production was 36,578 boe/d. This is very close to our expectations of 37,200 bpe/d. High production at CPO-5 (WI: 5,012 bbl/d vs our expectation of 4,500 bbl/d) and Platanillo (2,227 bbl/d vs our expectation of 2,000 bbl/d) was offset by lower production in Chile and Brazil on lower gas offtake. Production in these two countries is lower margin than in Colombia. • The Indico 6 and Indico 7 wells in the CPO-5 block in Colombia continue to be offline until definitive surface facilities are

Auctus on Friday - 10/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LM) C; Target price of £0.55 per share: One step closer to FID – Production ramp-up quicker than expected – Chariot has completed the Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) on the key components of the Anchois gas development project. The FEED confirms a plateau production of 105 mmcf/d from three wells including the existing Anchois-2 well, subsea infrastructure to an onshore central processing facility and an onshore g

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada site visit review

Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.

Reabold Resources - Payment received from Shell

Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Tower Resources (TRP LN) - Initiation Report (SPECULATIVE BUY, 0.12p/sh TP)

Cameroon: Ready for the Rig

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Baron Oil - Chuditch PSC – Six-Month Extension

Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

SP Angel Morning View: Ford takes 8.5% stake in Indonesian nickel project as Automakers swim upstream

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

SP Angel Morning View: Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

SP Angel Morning View: China lithium stocks rally on prospects for market rebound

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Andrada Mining: Lab-scale Spodumene concentrate results further advance Andrada’s lithium strategy

Andrada Mining (“Andrada”; “ATM”) has produced its first laboratory scale high-grade spodumene concentrate from mineralised pegmatite at Lithium Ridge (ML133). The material was sourced from the drill core of three holes through two separate pegmatite ore bodies drilled earlier this year. The weighted average feed grade was 1.69% Li2O (15.2% Spodumene), with a 76% Li2O recovery, producing a 6.8% Li2O high-grade spodumene concentrate suitable for lithium carbonate production. A second drill progra