Despite a soft consumer environment, we remain positive on TBBB’s business and positioning as consumers are expected to continue to trade down. We thus reiterate our Outperform rating, while raising our PT to US$44 (from US$40). Meanwhile, we remain more cautious on other retail players; recent ANTAD data showed January SSS growth of 2.0%, improving sequentially from 1.2% in December but still below the c.3% average observed in 2025, reinforcing our view of a cautious consumer environment.
Looking into 2026, some companies have already provided initial guidance, offering early visibility on sector dynamics. For instance, Chedraui guided 3-4% SSS in Mexico, broadly consistent with the softer top-line trends that we are observing across supermarkets, where expansion and cost control, rather than strong consumption acceleration, are expected to drive results. Similarly, management teams are signaling a more balanced growth environment, with focus on efficiency and disciplined capex deployment. Additionally, the ANTAD recently published its 3.9% SSS estimate for the year, an improvement vs. last year but still below the usual long-term trend, especially considering the temporary World Cup tailwind.
We are also updating our FY26 estimates, with EBITDA margin expected to remain flattish in coming years, with expansion starting in 2028 onwards. In our view, TBBB stands out as a long-term structural growth and market share winner play.
23 Feb 2026
Actinver Research - TBBB: 4Q25 Preview
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Actinver Research - TBBB: 4Q25 Preview
BBB Foods, Inc. Class A (TBBB:NYS) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
23 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias -
Pages:
5 -
Despite a soft consumer environment, we remain positive on TBBB’s business and positioning as consumers are expected to continue to trade down. We thus reiterate our Outperform rating, while raising our PT to US$44 (from US$40). Meanwhile, we remain more cautious on other retail players; recent ANTAD data showed January SSS growth of 2.0%, improving sequentially from 1.2% in December but still below the c.3% average observed in 2025, reinforcing our view of a cautious consumer environment.
Looking into 2026, some companies have already provided initial guidance, offering early visibility on sector dynamics. For instance, Chedraui guided 3-4% SSS in Mexico, broadly consistent with the softer top-line trends that we are observing across supermarkets, where expansion and cost control, rather than strong consumption acceleration, are expected to drive results. Similarly, management teams are signaling a more balanced growth environment, with focus on efficiency and disciplined capex deployment. Additionally, the ANTAD recently published its 3.9% SSS estimate for the year, an improvement vs. last year but still below the usual long-term trend, especially considering the temporary World Cup tailwind.
We are also updating our FY26 estimates, with EBITDA margin expected to remain flattish in coming years, with expansion starting in 2028 onwards. In our view, TBBB stands out as a long-term structural growth and market share winner play.