We model 2Q:25 sales of $310.4 million, up 3% year over year, reflecting steady demand and continued strength in the independent restaurant channel. Our estimate aligns with management's commentary on consistent order trends early in the quarter.
We expect gross margin to remain a central area of focus, supported by improved procurement, ongoing initiatives and favorable mix. Our model calls for a 65 basis points (bps) of expansion year over year in 2Q:25.
We model distribution, selling, and administrative (DS&A) expenses at 16.4% of sales in 2Q:25, down 8 basis points year over year, reflecting continued progress in system integration and disciplined cost management.
On an adjusted basis, we forecast 2Q:25 EPS of $0.11, up from $0.04 in the prior year period, driven by solid revenue growth, margin expansion, and continued operating discipline.
HFFG's balance sheet remains healthy, with $16.1 million in cash and $107.4 million in total debt as of 1Q:25, resulting in net debt of $91.3 million. We forecast $25 million ($0.47 a share) in free cash flow in 2025 and $30 million ($0.57 a share) in 2026, excluding stock-based compensation. In our view, coupled with the company's fee cash flow generation, this financial position provides ample flexibility to support the company's long-term investment strategy.
With planned investment in 2025 aimed at alleviating capacity constraints and supporting operational transformation, we remain confident in HFFG's long-term trajectory and maintain our 2025 and 2026 sales and earnings estimates.
We maintain our $7 price target on HFFG's shares, which is based on 10x our 2026 EPS estimate of $0.70. Recent progress in the company's transformation supports our moderate risk rating.

10 Aug 2025
Margin Execution And Strategic Investment Support FY25/26 Outlook; Maintaining Estimates As HFFG Advances Transformation And Positions For 2026 Growth; Maintain $7 Price Target

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Margin Execution And Strategic Investment Support FY25/26 Outlook; Maintaining Estimates As HFFG Advances Transformation And Positions For 2026 Growth; Maintain $7 Price Target
We model 2Q:25 sales of $310.4 million, up 3% year over year, reflecting steady demand and continued strength in the independent restaurant channel. Our estimate aligns with management's commentary on consistent order trends early in the quarter.
We expect gross margin to remain a central area of focus, supported by improved procurement, ongoing initiatives and favorable mix. Our model calls for a 65 basis points (bps) of expansion year over year in 2Q:25.
We model distribution, selling, and administrative (DS&A) expenses at 16.4% of sales in 2Q:25, down 8 basis points year over year, reflecting continued progress in system integration and disciplined cost management.
On an adjusted basis, we forecast 2Q:25 EPS of $0.11, up from $0.04 in the prior year period, driven by solid revenue growth, margin expansion, and continued operating discipline.
HFFG's balance sheet remains healthy, with $16.1 million in cash and $107.4 million in total debt as of 1Q:25, resulting in net debt of $91.3 million. We forecast $25 million ($0.47 a share) in free cash flow in 2025 and $30 million ($0.57 a share) in 2026, excluding stock-based compensation. In our view, coupled with the company's fee cash flow generation, this financial position provides ample flexibility to support the company's long-term investment strategy.
With planned investment in 2025 aimed at alleviating capacity constraints and supporting operational transformation, we remain confident in HFFG's long-term trajectory and maintain our 2025 and 2026 sales and earnings estimates.
We maintain our $7 price target on HFFG's shares, which is based on 10x our 2026 EPS estimate of $0.70. Recent progress in the company's transformation supports our moderate risk rating.