3Q:25 results modestly exceeded expectations, with sales of $307 million versus our $305.6 million estimate, up 2.9% year over year, reflecting higher volumes and improved pricing in Meat & Poultry and Seafood.
Gross margin held firm at 16.4%, with pricing gains and throughput efficiencies offsetting a greater mix of lower-margin seafood.
Operating expenses improved to 16.1% of sales from 16.6% in 3Q:24, driven by lower personnel, professional, and insurance costs, highlighting ongoing cost discipline.
Underlying profitability continued to improve, with adjusted earnings rising sharply year over year on sustained volume gains, improved purchasing integration, and continued execution of the company's transformation initiatives.
Management remains focused on completing its multi-year transformation, including ERP integration, salesforce rationalization, and strategic facility enhancements in Charlotte, Atlanta, and Chicago.
The balance sheet and liquidity remain solid, with $12.3 million in cash, access to $49.8 million under the credit facility, and a new $100 million ATM program that enhances flexibility for working capital, capital projects, and acquisitions.
We lower our 2025 and 2026 estimates to reflect softer restaurant traffic, tariff uncertainty, and near-term costs tied to the salesforce overhaul. We now forecast 2025 sales of $1.226 billion (from $1.232 billion) and adjusted EPS of $0.37 (from $0.45), and 2026 sales of $1.250 billion (from $1.284 billion) and adjusted EPS of $0.52 (from $0.70). We also introduce 2027 estimates for $1.300 billion in sales and $0.70 in adjusted EPS, reflecting the anticipated benefits of expanded capacity and structural efficiencies.
We maintain our $7 price target on HFFG shares which is now based on 10x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.70. Previously, our target was based on 10x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $0.70. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by transformation progress, improved purchasing scale, and long-term earnings power.
11 Nov 2025
Transformation On Track As HF Foods Builds Toward 2027 Inflection; Trim Near-Term Estimates Amid Softer Demand And Tariff Uncertainty; Introduce 2027 Forecast; Maintain $7 Price Target
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Transformation On Track As HF Foods Builds Toward 2027 Inflection; Trim Near-Term Estimates Amid Softer Demand And Tariff Uncertainty; Introduce 2027 Forecast; Maintain $7 Price Target
3Q:25 results modestly exceeded expectations, with sales of $307 million versus our $305.6 million estimate, up 2.9% year over year, reflecting higher volumes and improved pricing in Meat & Poultry and Seafood.
Gross margin held firm at 16.4%, with pricing gains and throughput efficiencies offsetting a greater mix of lower-margin seafood.
Operating expenses improved to 16.1% of sales from 16.6% in 3Q:24, driven by lower personnel, professional, and insurance costs, highlighting ongoing cost discipline.
Underlying profitability continued to improve, with adjusted earnings rising sharply year over year on sustained volume gains, improved purchasing integration, and continued execution of the company's transformation initiatives.
Management remains focused on completing its multi-year transformation, including ERP integration, salesforce rationalization, and strategic facility enhancements in Charlotte, Atlanta, and Chicago.
The balance sheet and liquidity remain solid, with $12.3 million in cash, access to $49.8 million under the credit facility, and a new $100 million ATM program that enhances flexibility for working capital, capital projects, and acquisitions.
We lower our 2025 and 2026 estimates to reflect softer restaurant traffic, tariff uncertainty, and near-term costs tied to the salesforce overhaul. We now forecast 2025 sales of $1.226 billion (from $1.232 billion) and adjusted EPS of $0.37 (from $0.45), and 2026 sales of $1.250 billion (from $1.284 billion) and adjusted EPS of $0.52 (from $0.70). We also introduce 2027 estimates for $1.300 billion in sales and $0.70 in adjusted EPS, reflecting the anticipated benefits of expanded capacity and structural efficiencies.
We maintain our $7 price target on HFFG shares which is now based on 10x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.70. Previously, our target was based on 10x our prior 2026 EPS estimate of $0.70. Our Moderate risk rating is supported by transformation progress, improved purchasing scale, and long-term earnings power.