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Risk from unseasonably warm weather reflected in downgrade
- Published:
16 Dec 2015 -
Author:
Matthew McEachran -
Pages:
3 -
Weather in December has been very unseasonal and mild temperatures are forecast to persist until Xmas in the south. Conditions haven’t been good in the north either. This was one of the key risks we highlighted when upgrading our rec. in Aug and target price in Oct. A warning from Bonmarche this morning, albeit predominantly high street oriented, confirms this is having an adverse impact on sales and profitability. We assume N Brown made good progress in SeptNov against very soft comparatives but, with December growing in importance, have reduced our above consensus PBT forecast by 3.4%, and outer year forecasts by 2%. This is a frustration but doesn’t alter our fundamental view